Big things are likely to happen in the South China Sea, and Vietnam and Singapore are already preparing in advance, with only the Philippines still provoking China.
Because after the conclusion of the US-Japan-Philippines summit, the United States is clearly planning to escalate the situation in the South China Sea, and China cannot sit idly by.
China has always advocated a peaceful resolution of the South China Sea issue, and has always done so. Marcos Jr.'s first stop on a foreign trip after taking office was China, where he talked about huge investment projects. With the business environment of the Philippines, being able to attract so much investment is in itself a manifestation of China's greatest goodwill.
However, after making overtures with China, Marcos Jr. quickly changed his face and completely turned to the United States. However, throughout 2023, as the Philippines continues to provoke around Chinese islands and reefs such as Scarborough Shoal and Ren'ai Jiao, China has not given up its efforts to bring the Philippines back to the framework of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea. At the end of 2023, when the Philippines jumped the highest, China was still working hard to promote the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, announcing the launch of the third reading.
However, Marcos Jr.'s participation in the US-Japan-Philippines summit and his high-profile visit to China in line with Biden and Fumio Kishida's agenda has completely touched China's backlash.
In the past few years, when observing China's handling of foreign affairs, we can find a small habit: that is, if a country in the region does not bring in foreign forces, it will come to China and have a good talk with China, and China's attitude towards negotiations is very open, and the offer is also very generous. But if these countries are smart and bring in extraterritorial forces to raise their value, they will be beaten hard by China.
Duterte is a prime example of this. Lao Du tore his face with the United States back then, but for the Philippines, which had lost its "backer", China did not fall into the trap, but instead finalized a "gentleman's agreement" with Duterte, in which the two sides agreed not to change the status quo in the South China Sea in the short term and jointly promote the improvement of the situation in the South China Sea in the long term.
Marcos Jr. is now the complete opposite of Duterte, and must drag the United States into the South China Sea to muddy the waters. In particular, after attending the US-Japan-Philippines summit, Marcos Jr. thought that his waist had hardened and completely stopped pretending, and he began to hype up anti-China issues in an increasingly high-profile manner, not only explicitly saying that he wanted to cooperate with the United States to deal with China, but also talking about "common defense" at both ends of the day.
Therefore, many countries in Southeast Asia that are aware of current affairs have recently smelled that the limelight is not right, and they have begun to leave a way for themselves in advance.
One of the most flexible countries is Vietnam.
The reason is also very simple, Vietnam suffered hard in the past because of the clamor between major countries outside the region and China, and now looking at the Philippines is basically no different from looking at a corpse. There are also some disputes between Vietnam and China over the South China Sea issue, but just after Marcos Jr. went to the United States, the Vietnamese defense minister made a special trip to the Sino-Vietnamese border to meet with the Chinese defense minister, and the two sides jointly finalized a memorandum of understanding on the China-Vietnam naval hotline, announcing that they would further implement the security cooperation between the two countries. This is obviously a sign of determination on the part of Vietnam, and no matter what happens between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea for some time to come, Vietnam will not make waves.
Another country that has taken a stand is Singapore. In recent days, Lee Hsien Loong has suddenly released news that he will "retire after success" and hand over the position of prime minister to Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. Singapore is one of the closest military partners of the United States in Southeast Asia, and US aircraft carriers can dock directly at the country's military ports. Lee Hsien Loong is now retreating from the front of the stage to the background, obviously trying to avoid the limelight, quite a bit of the time when Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister, and then pulled a group of cannon fodder in the Japanese cabinet to sing and stop me from appearing, and changed the taste of five prime ministers in five years. A scheming politician like Lee Hsien Loong, looking at Marcos Jr. is probably like a joke.
Therefore, up to now, the three countries with the closest relationship between Southeast Asia and the United States, Vietnam, Singapore, and the Philippines, have either sided with China or chosen to protect themselves, which is obviously a sign that something big is happening. Only the Philippines is a country that still feels good about itself and has been a demon and doesn't know how to write a typo.