This week, the spring ploughing of rice in the north and south continued to advance, the sowing of early rice entered the peak, the seedling raising of medium rice exceeded seventy, the sowing and raising of japonica rice in the northeast was launched, and the market focus gradually shifted to the production of new rice. The spot market of paddy remained stable overall, with prices fluctuating slightly in some areas. In the south, the rotation of rice from local storage continued to increase, the supply of indica rice was loose, and the market purchase and sales further weakened. With the narrowing of the rice price gap between China and abroad, rice imports increased significantly month-on-month in March.
Indica rice is rotated in large quantities
The spot market is stable and weak
In mid-April, the rotation of local reserves in the southern indica rice market continued to increase, and the average price of indica rice auctions fell slightly due to loose supply and weak demand. In the spot market, affected by the sluggish demand for terminal rice, rice processing enterprises started cautiously, and the enthusiasm for purchasing raw grain was insufficient.
As of April 18, the purchase price of "Huang Huazhan" rice in Shangrao, Jiangxi Province was 3040~3100 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of rice was 4400~4600 yuan/ton, the downstream consumption was weak, the goods were sluggish, and the rice price was stable; the purchase price of "Huanghuazhan" rice in Xiantao, Hubei Province was 2900~2960 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of rice was 4360~4400 yuan/ton, the purchase and sale were general, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong; the purchase price of ordinary hybrid rice in Changde, Hunan Province was 2600 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of rice was 3800~3900 yuan/ The purchase price of "Feng Liangyou" rice in Ma'anshan, Anhui Province is 2840~2860 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of rice is 3960~4040 yuan/ton, and the market transaction is light, and the price is based on quality.
In mid-April, the rotation of local reserve paddy in the southern provinces was still vigorously promoted, and the output of indica rice rotation continued to increase, but the average transaction price gradually decreased due to the loose supply, and the purchase volume of rice rotation gradually decreased. Judging from the bidding transactions of the local reserves from April 15th to 17th, the procurement and sales in Guangdong Province are carried out in both directions, with the bidding purchase of 29,000 tons of mid-to-late indica rice in 2023, the actual transaction price is 3150~3270 yuan/ton, and the discount range is 39~150 yuan/ton, and the cumulative sales of indica rice from 2021 to 2022 are 9,000 tons, the actual transaction price is 2535~3409 yuan/ton, and the premium range is 0~209 yuan/ton. Hunan Province sold 13,000 tons of indica rice from 2020 to 2022, and the actual transaction price was 2510~2920 yuan/ton, all of which were sold at the reserve price, and there were unsold auctions in many times. Hubei Province sold 09,000 tons of mid-to-late indica rice from 2021 to 2022, with an actual transaction price of 2,640~2,780 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0~30 yuan/ton, and purchased 3,000 tons of mid-to-late indica rice in 2024, with an average transaction price of 2,880 yuan/ton, all of which were traded at the reserve price. Jiangxi Province sold 1,000 tons of mid-to-late indica rice in 2021, and the actual transaction price was 2,720 yuan/ton, all of which were traded at the reserve price. Zhejiang Province sold 32,000 tons of early indica rice in 2021, and the actual transaction price was 2676~2942 yuan/ton, with a premium of 19~172 yuan/ton. Jiangsu Province purchased 00,500 tons of japonica rice in 2023, and the actual transaction price was 2,940 yuan/ton, with a discount of 110 yuan/ton.
The surplus grain of japonica rice decreased rapidly
The market is obviously strong and stable
Entering the middle of April, as the weather warms up, spring ploughing is imminent, farmers are more enthusiastic about selling grain, the surplus grain at the grassroots level of japonica rice is declining rapidly, the market demand for ordinary round grain japonica rice still exists, supported by the tightening of supply and demand, the price of short-term round grain japonica rice has risen firmly, the supply of high-quality long-grain japonica rice is relatively loose, and the price has maintained stable operation as a whole.
As of April 18, the purchase price of ordinary round grain japonica rice in Jiamusi, Heilongjiang Province was 2700~2780 yuan/ton, up 20~60 yuan/ton from last week, and the ex-factory price of rice was 3700~3800 yuan/ton, up 20~100 yuan/ton; The purchase price of super rice in Changchun, Jilin Province is 3200~3250 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of super rice is 4360~4400 yuan/ton. The purchase price of "Liaoxing" rice in Liaoyang, Liaoning Province is 3120~3140 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of rice is 4300~4340 yuan/ton. The purchase price of ordinary japonica rice in Taizhou, Jiangsu Province is 2,800 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of rice is 3,800 yuan/ton.
Weak demand for feed farming
The price of by-products was stable and fell slightly
This week, the market of rice processing by-products as a whole maintained a steady and slightly downward trend. Among them, the prices of rice bran and rice husk were stable, and the prices of rice bran meal continued to decline steadily. Under the strong rice and weak rice market, the operating rate of rice processing enterprises in the short term is difficult to rise, and the supply of rice by-products is limited, which brings certain support to the prices of rice bran and rice husk. Due to the weak demand for downstream feed breeding, the rice bran meal market is stable and weak.
According to monitoring, as of April 18, the purchase price of rice bran market remained stable, including 2280 yuan/ton in Jiamusi, 2280 yuan/ton in Jiamusi, 2320 yuan/ton, 2320 yuan/ton in Xuzhou, Jiangsu, 2400 yuan/ton in Yingkou, Liaoning, and 2520 yuan/ton in Yueyang, Hunan, all of which were the same as last week. The purchase price of rice bran meal market continued to fall steadily, including 1630 yuan/ton in Jiamusi, 1630 yuan/ton, 1800 yuan/ton in Xuzhou, Jiangsu, 2050 yuan/ton in Zhaoqing, Guangdong, all the same as last week, 1840 yuan/ton in Jingmen, Hubei, down 20 yuan/ton, and 1800 yuan/ton in Yingkou, Liaoning, down 30 yuan/ton. The purchase price of rice husk market in Heilongjiang Jiansanjiang area was 320 yuan/ton, and Hunan Yiyang was 430 yuan ton, both of which were the same as last week.
The inversion of rice prices inside and outside is prominent
Both imports and exports increased month-on-month
According to the latest customs statistics, the import volume and export volume of mainland rice in March 2024 increased in both directions month-on-month. In March, the mainland imported 90,000 tons of rice, an increase of 15,000 tons or 20 percent month-on-month, and exported 60,000 tons of rice, an increase of 27,000 tons or 81.8 percent month-on-month. From January to March, the mainland imported a total of 308,000 tons of rice, a year-on-year decrease of 689,000 tons, or 69.1 percent, and exported a total of 240,000 tons of rice, a slight increase of 7,000 tons, or 3 percent.
In the first quarter, the mainland's rice imports decreased significantly, but the export volume was basically the same as the same period last year.
At present, from the perspective of domestic and foreign price differences, the first quarter of the international rice price has a sharp correction trend, Thailand, Vietnam and other major rice exporting countries rice prices fell significantly, with 5% broken rate of rice FOB quotation as an example, in the first quarter of Thai rice prices fell as high as 12.3%, Vietnamese rice fell as high as 11.3%. The decline in international rice prices has caused the spread between domestic and foreign rice prices to narrow to a certain extent, but the inversion of domestic and foreign rice prices is still prominent, which has become the main factor affecting the import volume. (This article was originally published in the A03 edition of the Grain and Oil Market News on April 20, 2024)
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