Chief Economist of Guosheng Securities, Director of China Chief Economist Forum, Dr. Xiong Yuan
Guosheng Securities macro analyst, Zhu Hui
In the past half month, there have been policies to stabilize growth, new measures have been taken to update equipment, stabilize real estate, stabilize private enterprises, etc., and the new "National Nine Articles" in the capital market have been introduced. We track major policies every six months: 1) important meetings and policies of the central government and ministries, 2) local policies, and 3) industry and industrial policies. This issue is the policy tracking for the past half month (2024.4.8-4.21).
In the short term, in view of the expected high growth of GDP in the first quarter, it is expected that the general tone of the Politburo meeting at the end of April will not change significantly, and it is difficult to have a strong stimulus, and it should generally continue the Central Economic Work Conference and the "Two Sessions" statement, including the economy is still worried, highlighting various "stability", etc., and the new point may be "grasp the implementation, strengthen the consistency of policy orientation, focus on reform, Highlight the new quality of productivity, stabilize real estate", etc.; continue to remind that the next month is an important observation period, keep an eye on 4 points: the Politburo meeting at the end of April, cement, asphalt and other physical workload indicators, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, special bonds and other existing policies detailed deployment, external demand, changes in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations.
1. In the short term, according to the usual practice at the end of April, the Politburo meeting related to economic work will be held, based on the performance of the mainland economy in the first quarter, as well as the recent high-level symposium, the National Standing Meeting, the State Council Information Office press conference and other series of meetings, we have four forward-looking:
Outlook 1: In terms of the economic situation, it should be affirmed that the economy will continue to pick up in the first quarter and achieve a good start, but it should also continue to emphasize that internal and external pressures are still large, uncertainties are high, domestic demand is insufficient, the foundation for economic recovery is not yet solid, and the problems existing in economic operation still need to be solved.
Prospect 2: In terms of policy tone, in view of the fact that the GDP in the first quarter exceeded expectations and the difficulty of achieving the target of 5% for the whole year was greatly reduced, it is expected that the overall tone will not change significantly, and it is not appropriate to expect too much from the strong stimulus. It is also likely to highlight reforms and new qualitative productivity.
Prospect 3: In terms of policy implementation, it should be required to "maintain the consistency of policy orientation", and it may also mention "doing a good job in major policy planning and pre-research reserves", and pay close attention to the detailed deployment of existing policies such as ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, special bonds, equipment renewal, trade-in, and "three major projects".
Prospect 4: In terms of key work, continue to strengthen the industry, stabilize confidence, stabilize growth, expand domestic demand, stabilize employment, and increase leverage by the central government, and should also highlight risk prevention, promote reform, and expand opening up.
2. Overall, in the past half month, the policy has continued to stabilize growth, confidence, and real estate, and the existing policies have accelerated the implementation of five major focuses:
First, there has been steady growth to accelerate the landing, including the Ministry of Commerce issued a trade-in and industrial equipment renewal plan, the central bank issued a financial document to support green, low-carbon, and new industrialization; In addition, the press conference of the State Council Information Office interprets the current economic and financial operation and follow-up policies, and there are three points of concern.
The second is to increase the stability of real estate, including 4.13 Vice Premier Zhengzhou research real estate and held a symposium, all over the country to continue to loosen real estate, pay attention to the cancellation of the lower limit of the interest rate of commercial personal housing loans for the first house in many cities, Changsha no longer review the qualifications for house purchases, and "trade-in" to implement the "recognition of housing without loan", Xiamen further reduced the down payment ratio to the first set of 20%.
The third is to promote the high-quality development of the capital market, and the new "National Nine Articles" were issued (previously in 2004/2014), which generally continues the central government's various deployments for financial work in recent years, and continues the main line of strict supervision, risk prevention and high-quality development, but there are also new requirements and new deployments. Since then, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and other departments have issued a series of "N" policies, including a reduction in the commission rate of fund stock trading.
Fourth, we will continue to promote scientific and technological innovation and serve new quality productivity, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission and other departments have recently taken measures to serve the high-level development of science and technology enterprises, including the 4.19 China Securities Regulatory Commission's 16 capital market services for the high-level development of science and technology enterprises, and the Ministry of Commerce has further supported a number of measures for foreign institutions to invest in domestic science and technology enterprises.
Fifth, the German Chancellor's official visit, which is the second visit to China since the German Chancellor took office, focuses on industrial chain cooperation, especially to create new growth points for cooperation such as new energy vehicles.
Other concerns: On April 19, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued five capital market co-operation measures to help Hong Kong consolidate and enhance its status as an international financial centre.
3. Specifically, the major policies in the past half month (2024.4.8-4.21) are as follows:
Important meetings and policies: The new "National Nine Articles" were released, focusing on the progress of five major articles: equipment renewal, trade-in, real estate financing, and finance.
Local policies: All localities will continue to stabilize the economy and promote automobile consumption to increase consumer finance and cash subsidy support.
Industry and industrial policies: All localities continue to increase the weight of loose real estate, and take multiple measures to serve the high level of science and technology enterprises.
Risk Warning:
Report Summary:
1. In the short term, according to the usual practice at the end of April, the Politburo meeting related to economic work will be held, based on the performance of the mainland economy in the first quarter, as well as the recent high-level symposium, the National Standing Meeting, the press conference of the State Council Information Office and other series of meetings, we have four forward-looking:
Outlook 1: In terms of the economic situation, it should be affirmed that the economy will continue to pick up in the first quarter and achieve a good start, but it should also continue to emphasize that internal and external pressures are still large, uncertainties are high, domestic demand is insufficient, the foundation for economic recovery is not yet solid, and the problems existing in economic operation still need to be solved.
On the one hand, it should be affirmed that the positive factors in economic operation continue to increase, such as the continuation of the 4.18 State Council New Office press conference "the economic operation in the first quarter continued to pick up and improve, and the economic and social development achieved a good start"; on the other hand, it may continue to emphasize that "the external environment is complex, severe, and uncertain", and it may also continue to point out that "the problems in economic operation still need to be solved", such as "domestic effective demand is insufficient, social expectations are weak, and the foundation for economic stability and improvement is not yet solid." And so on.
Prospect 2: In terms of policy tone, in view of the fact that the GDP in the first quarter exceeded expectations and the difficulty of achieving the target of 5% for the whole year was greatly reduced, it is expected that the overall tone will not change significantly, and it is not appropriate to expect too much from the strong stimulus. It is also likely to highlight reforms and new qualitative productivity.
In view of the GDP exceeding expectations in the first quarter, the GDP growth rate in the second quarter is expected to reach about 6% under the low base, which will undoubtedly greatly reduce the difficulty of achieving the annual growth target of 5%, indicating that the possibility of strong stimulus will further decline. It is inclined to believe that this meeting will continue to emphasize various "stability" such as stabilizing confidence and employment, and continue to say that "to consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery, we must pay close attention to the detailed implementation of the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and the National People's Congress and the National People's Congress and the National People's Congress and the National In addition, the fourth meeting of the 2.19 Shenzhen Reform Commission pointed out that "this year is another important year for comprehensively deepening reform, and the main task is to plan to further deepen reform in an all-round way;
Prospect 3: In terms of policy implementation, it should be required to "maintain the consistency of policy orientation", and it may also mention "doing a good job in major policy planning and pre-research reserves", and pay close attention to the detailed deployment of existing policies such as ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, special bonds, equipment renewal, trade-in, and "three major projects".
On the one hand, promote the established policies and key tasks, such as accelerating the implementation of equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in, the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to support the implementation of major national strategies and key areas of security capacity building and other major deployments; on the other hand, referring to the 4.18 National Development and Reform Commission's deployment of the second quarter of the work, it may "make greater efforts to solve the main contradictions", including the construction of a modern industrial system, the expansion of domestic demand, the stabilization of prices, the stabilization of foreign investment, the protection of employment, the prevention of risks, etc. In addition, there may also be a mention of "doing a good job in major policy planning and pre-research reserves", such as "in-depth study and planning on how to establish first and then break down, accelerate the development of new productive forces according to local conditions, and prepare effective policy tools to deal with various shocks and impacts according to the needs of domestic and foreign environmental changes and situation development".
Prospect 4: In terms of key work, continue to strengthen the industry, stabilize confidence, stabilize growth, expand domestic demand, stabilize employment, and increase leverage by the central government, and should also highlight risk prevention, promote reform, and expand opening up. Specifically:
1) Strong industries, which should continue to emphasize building a modern industrial system supported by the real economy, especially scientific and technological innovation, and may continue to mention new energy, artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, etc.;
2) Stabilizing confidence, which should further emphasize stabilizing private enterprises and foreign investment;
3) To stabilize growth, we should continue to emphasize expanding domestic demand, promoting consumption, expanding investment, and stabilizing foreign trade, especially to promote the acceleration of the implementation of deployment policies such as equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods;
4) To stabilize employment, we should continue to highlight the employment problems of key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers;
5) The central government will increase leverage, monetary policy should continue to be loose and structural, and there is a high probability that the central bank will cut the RRR and interest rates, especially the central bank's possible hedging RRR cuts, pay attention to the new "policy toolbox", and also pay attention to the disturbance of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and pay close attention to the detailed deployment and rhythm of policies such as the "three major projects", ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, PSL, and special bonds;
6) Promote reform and expand opening up, combined with the recent statements of the central government and the clues revealed by the four deep reform meetings, this year should be a "big year of reform", and the overall goal should be to achieve Chinese-style modernization, with new quality productivity and high-quality development as the main line;
7) Risk prevention is still dominated by the three major risks of finance, real estate and local debt, among which the expression of real estate may be more positive, which may include systematically planning real estate financing support policies, effectively stimulating potential demand, and improving the housing supply system of "market + security".
2. Overall, in the past half month, the policy has continued to stabilize growth, confidence, and real estate, and the existing policies have accelerated the landing, with five major focuses:
First, there has been steady growth to accelerate the landing, including the Ministry of Commerce issued a trade-in, industrial equipment renewal plan, the central bank issued a financial support for green, low-carbon, new industrialization, 4.12 National Standing Committee to study and improve the long-term mechanism to solve the problem of enterprise account arrears, the National Development and Reform Commission requires all localities to launch a number of PPP projects as soon as possible; 10,000 yuan cash subsidy, commercial banks have also launched auto finance interest rate concessions, installment subsidies, installment cashback subsidies and other discounts. In addition, the press conference of the State Council Information Office interpreted the current economic and financial operation and follow-up policies, focusing on three points: first, it will continue to strengthen the implementation of macroeconomic policies and enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation; second, in terms of fiscal policy, it will promote the construction of all additional treasury bonds before the end of June, and will also "break down deep-seated obstacles through institutional and mechanism reforms, and form a synergy with the construction of major projects"; third, in terms of monetary policy, it will strengthen the monitoring of capital idling, "pay close attention to changes in the foreign exchange market situation, and resolutely prevent the risk of exchange rate overshoot" , it will also accelerate the strengthening of the top-level design of the five major articles.
The second is to increase the stability of real estate, including 4.13 Vice Premier Zhengzhou research real estate and held a symposium, this time in addition to the requirements of the "white list" compliance real estate projects "should be loaned", but also mentioned that the project that does not meet the requirements of the "white list" for the time being, pay close attention to come up with targeted solutions. In addition, all localities continue to loosen real estate, pay attention to the cancellation of the lower limit of the interest rate of commercial personal housing loans for the first house in many cities, Changsha no longer reviews the qualifications for house purchases, and implements the "old for new" implementation of "recognising the house but not recognising the loan", and Xiamen further lowers the down payment ratio to 20% for the first set.
The third is to promote the high-quality development of the capital market, and the new "National Nine Articles" were issued (previously in 2004/2014), which generally continues the central government's various deployments for financial work in recent years, and continues the main line of strict supervision, risk prevention and high-quality development, but there are also new requirements and new deployments. Since then, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and other departments have issued a series of "N" policies, including a reduction in the commission rate of fund stock trading.
Fourth, continue to promote scientific and technological innovation and serve new quality productivity, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and other departments have recently taken measures to serve the high-level development of science and technology enterprises, including the 4.19 China Securities Regulatory Commission's "Sixteen Measures for the High-level Development of Capital Market Services for Science and Technology Enterprises", which put forward supportive measures from listing financing, mergers and acquisitions, bond issuance, private equity investment, etc.;
Fifth, the German Chancellor's official visit, this is the second visit to China since the German Chancellor took office, focusing on industrial chain cooperation, "whether it is traditional fields such as machinery manufacturing and automobiles, or emerging fields such as green transformation, digitalization, artificial intelligence, etc., the two countries have huge potential for win-win cooperation to be tapped", especially to create new growth points for cooperation such as new energy vehicles.
Other concerns: On April 19, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued five capital market co-operation measures to help Hong Kong consolidate and enhance its status as an international financial centre.
Risk Warning:
The text is as follows:
1. Important meetings and policies: The new "National Nine Articles" were released, focusing on the progress of five major articles: equipment renewal, trade-in, real estate financing, and finance
1. Important meetings: decode the current economic and financial operations and macro policies, and continue to promote the implementation of the real estate financing coordination mechanism and the problem of arrears of private enterprises.
State Council: Interpret the current economic and financial operations and macro policies
Recently, the State Council Information Office held an intensive press conference, focusing on the interpretation of the economic and financial operation in the first quarter, macro policies, and the deployment of the work in the second quarter, with three major concerns:
First, we will continue to strengthen the implementation of macro policies and enhance the consistency of macro policy orientations, especially "accelerating the implementation of equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods, issuing ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to support the implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas";
Second, in terms of fiscal policy, it will promote the construction of all additional treasury bonds before the end of June, and will also "break down deep-seated obstacles through institutional and mechanism reforms to form a synergy with the construction of major projects";
Third, in terms of monetary policy, we will strengthen the monitoring of capital idling, "pay close attention to changes in the foreign exchange market situation, and resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshoot", and will also accelerate the strengthening of the top-level design of the five major articles.
Central Committee of the Communist Party of China: Official visit of the German Chancellor
From April 14th to 16th, the German Chancellor paid an official visit to China, this is the second visit to China since the German Chancellor took office, this time focusing on industrial chain cooperation, "whether it is traditional fields such as machinery manufacturing and automobiles, or emerging fields such as green transformation, digitalization, artificial intelligence, etc., the two countries have great potential for win-win cooperation to be tapped", especially to create new growth points for cooperation such as new energy vehicles.
The State Council: Accelerate the implementation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism
Event: From April 13th to 14th, the Vice Premier of the State Council investigated the real estate work in Zhengzhou and presided over a symposium.
Main content: further understand the importance of doing a good job in real estate, accelerate the implementation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, and actively provide financial support to compliant real estate projects that meet the requirements of the "white list", so as to ensure that the project is completed and delivered on time, protect the legitimate rights and interests of buyers, stabilize expectations, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. For projects that do not meet the requirements of the "white list" for the time being, we should pay close attention to coming up with targeted solutions. For development loans and pre-sale housing funds, it is necessary to optimize account management and fund supervision, ensure closed operation, and strictly prevent misappropriation in violation of regulations.
In addition to requiring compliance real estate projects that meet the requirements of the "white list" to "borrow as much as possible", it also mentions that for projects that do not meet the requirements of the "white list", we should come up with targeted solutions, once again pointing to the current policy orientation of ensuring delivery and real estate, and other cities are expected to follow suit.
National Standing Meeting: Improve the long-term mechanism for solving the problem of enterprise account arrears
Event: On April 12, the National Standing Committee studied measures to improve the long-term mechanism to solve the problem of corporate account arrears.
Main content: Solving the problem of arrears of corporate accounts is related to the improvement of the business environment, the overall situation of the economic recovery, and the image and credibility of the government. It is necessary not only to promote the special action of debt settlement with high quality and solve the current stock of debt settlement, but also to make efforts to improve the long-term mechanism and resolutely curb the "debt while clearing" and "debt after settlement". It is necessary to focus on the problem of government arrears of accounts owed to enterprises and the problem of large enterprises owing to small and medium-sized enterprises, further increase the cost of non-compliance of arrears entities, reduce the cost of rights protection of arrears enterprises, and pay close attention to improving relevant laws and regulations and systems and regulations such as project price settlement and commercial draft management, so that the long-term mechanism can operate smoothly as soon as possible. In addition, listen to the report on energy conservation and carbon reduction, and study the work related to accelerating the rise of the central region in the new era.
National Development and Reform Commission: launch a batch of projects that meet the requirements of the new PPP mechanism as soon as possible
Event: On April 8, the Investment Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on the mobilization and promotion of the national development and reform system.
Main content: The meeting emphasized that all localities should deeply understand the importance of the introduction of the new PPP mechanism, attach great importance to and make every effort to promote the implementation of the new PPP mechanism, take the new PPP mechanism as an important starting point for promoting private investment, and do a good job. It is necessary to accurately grasp the specific requirements for standardizing the implementation of the new PPP mechanism, comprehensively and systematically understand the institutional system of the new PPP mechanism, and pay close attention to the establishment of a PPP working mechanism in the region. Development and reform departments at all levels should give full play to the role of comprehensive coordination and promote the comprehensive and standardized implementation of the new PPP mechanism. The Investment Department of the National Development and Reform Commission will do a solid job in promoting the new PPP mechanism, effectively strengthen policy guidance, organize all localities to launch a number of projects that meet the requirements of the new PPP mechanism as soon as possible, encourage the participation of private enterprises to the greatest extent, fully stimulate the vitality of private investment, and consolidate the growth trend of private investment.
Brief comment: Previously, on 23.11.8, the Ministry of Finance and others issued the "Guiding Opinions on Standardizing the Implementation of the New Mechanism for Public-Private Partnership", the biggest highlight of the new PPP regulations is that private enterprises are given priority to participate in projects, and it clarifies the "list of new franchise (including reconstruction and expansion) projects that support the participation of private enterprises", "projects that actively create conditions and support the participation of private enterprises", and "projects in which the equity proportion of private enterprises is not less than 35% in principle".
State Council: Symposium of Experts and Entrepreneurs on the Economic Situation
Event: On April 8, the State Council hosted a symposium of experts and entrepreneurs on the economic situation.
Main content: It is necessary to soberly realize that the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the current external environment are rising, and the problems existing in economic operation still need to be solved. It is necessary to continue to consolidate the foundation and cultivate the yuan, stimulate the vitality of the main body of business, and enhance the endogenous driving force for development. It is necessary to strengthen the combination effect and enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation. It is necessary to pay attention to precise policy implementation and improve the effectiveness of macro policy transmission to micro level. It is necessary to resolutely adhere to the bottom line and resolve risks in key areas. It is necessary to put the work of people's livelihood in a prominent position and do a good job in doing practical things about people's livelihood one by one.
Brief comment: Overall, the symposium not only affirmed the current economic rebound trend, but also pointed out that "the problems existing in economic operation still need to be solved".
2. Ministerial policies: the new "National Nine Articles" and supporting "N" policies, focusing on equipment renewal, trade-in of consumer goods, and financial support for green, low-carbon and new industrialization.
China Securities Regulatory Commission: Further optimize the commission system for fund securities transactions
Event: On April 19, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued the Regulations on the Administration of Securities Transaction Costs for Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds.
Main contents: There are 19 articles in total, and the main contents are in four aspects: first, to reduce the commission rate of fund stock transactions, second, to reduce the upper limit of the distribution ratio of fund managers' securities trading commissions, third, to comprehensively strengthen the relevant compliance and internal control requirements of fund managers and securities companies, and fourth, to clarify the content and requirements of information disclosure of transaction commissions at the fund manager level.
SFC: 5 capital market co-operation measures with Hong Kong
Event: On 19 April, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced five capital market co-operation measures for Hong Kong, helping Hong Kong consolidate and enhance its status as an international financial centre and jointly promote the coordinated development of the capital markets of the two places.
Main contents: First, the scope of eligible products of equity ETFs under Stock Connect will be relaxed. The second is to include REITs in Stock Connect, which is intended to include eligible REITs in the Mainland and Hong Kong in the Stock Connect with reference to the Stock Connect arrangements between the two places, so as to further enrich the trading varieties of Stock Connect. The third is to support the inclusion of RMB stock trading counters in the Hong Kong Stock Connect. Fourth, the MRF arrangement will be enhanced by promoting the appropriate relaxation of restrictions on the proportion of MRF sales to clients, and allowing the investment management functions of REHK funds to be delegated to overseas asset management institutions with the same group as the manager, so as to further optimize the MRF arrangement and better meet the diversified investment needs of investors in the two places. Fifth, we will support leading enterprises in mainland industries to list in Hong Kong.
The State Administration of the Financial Regulatory Commission, etc.: Deepen financial services for the manufacturing industry to help promote new industrialization
Event: On April 16, the State Administration of the Financial Regulatory Commission and other three departments issued the "Notice on Deepening Manufacturing Financial Services to Help Promote New Industrialization".
Main content: It is required to put financial support for the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry in a more prominent position. Banking financial institutions should separately list a credit plan for the manufacturing industry, promote more credit resources to support the development of the manufacturing industry, and continue to increase the proportion of medium and long-term loans in the manufacturing industry. In addition, enhance the ability to prevent and control financial risks in the manufacturing industry. Banking financial institutions should be in accordance with the principle of commercial sustainability, effective risk pricing mechanism to scientifically determine the loan interest rate, to prevent the disorderly price reduction of credit funds and idling arbitrage. We will resolutely crack down on all kinds of illegal financial activities and make every effort to ensure the healthy development of the financial market.
Ministry of Commerce, etc.: Promote the trade-in of consumer goods
Event: On April 12, the Ministry of Commerce and others issued the Action Plan for Promoting the Trade-in of Consumer Goods.
Main contents: By 2025, we will strive to accelerate the elimination of passenger cars with emission standards of China III and below, and further increase the market share of high-efficiency and energy-saving household appliances, increase the recycling volume of scrapped vehicles by 50% compared with 2023, and increase the recycling volume of waste household appliances by 15% compared with 2023. The key tasks of trade-in of consumer goods have been clarified. The first is to carry out car trade-in. Increase fiscal and financial policy support, the central government and local governments linkage, arrange funds to support the scrapping and renewal of automobiles, and encourage qualified localities to support the replacement and renewal of automobiles. Highlight the standard traction in the automotive field, improve the recycling and dismantling system of scrapped vehicles, promote the safe and convenient transaction of second-hand cars, cultivate and expand the main body of second-hand car business, and promote the innovation and development of automobile circulation and consumption. The second is to promote the trade-in of household appliances. Give full play to the guiding role of fiscal and taxation policies, encourage the introduction of measures to benefit the people, improve the recycling network of waste household appliances, increase the cultivation of diversified subjects, strengthen the guidance and support of household appliance standards, promote the comprehensive improvement of after-sales service levels, and develop the circulation of second-hand goods. The third is to promote the "renewal" of home decoration, kitchen and bathroom. Increase support for the people, improve the level of convenient services, cultivate new growth points for home furnishings, and optimize the home market environment.
Brief comment: At the previous regular briefing on the policy of the State Council, the National Development and Reform Commission said that according to the calculations of relevant institutions, the annual demand for equipment renewal in key areas such as industry and agriculture in the mainland is more than 5 trillion yuan, and the demand for replacement and renewal of automobiles and household appliances is also at the level of more than one trillion yuan.
State Council: The new "National Nine Articles" were released
Event: On April 12, the State Council issued the "Several Opinions on Strengthening Supervision and Preventing Risks and Promoting the High-quality Development of the Capital Market".
In 2004/2014, the State Council issued guidance documents on the capital market (including 9 items, referred to as the "National Nine Articles"), and this is the third time, and for the first time delineates the three stages of the roadmap, reflecting the party's great importance to the capital market. In contrast, the background and goals of the three "National Nine Articles" are different, which are aimed at improving the socialist economic system, promoting the development of the real economy, and promoting the high-quality development of the capital market. In addition, for the first time, the three-stage development goal of "the next five years, by 2035, and by the middle of this century" has been delineated, and the follow-up should be dynamically assessed and adjusted.
From an objective point of view, the new "Nine Articles" generally continue the central government's various arrangements for financial work in recent years, especially the spirit of last year's reform of party and state institutions, the Central Financial Work Conference, and the Central Economic Work Conference, but there are also new requirements and new arrangements. That is, the overall continuation of the emphasis on strict financial supervision, risk prevention, and high-quality development, requires adhering to the political and people's nature of the capital market work, doing a good job in the five major articles of finance, accelerating the construction of a financial power (including the "strong capital market"), serving the overall situation of Chinese-style modernization, etc., and also needs to pay attention to many new proposals, such as "establishing a coordination mechanism for the release of major policy information; strengthening the construction of strategic force reserves and stability mechanisms, and focusing on rectifying outstanding risks and hidden dangers in the field of private equity funds", public funds" from scale-oriented to investor-return-oriented", securities and fund institutions "handle the relationship between functionality and profitability".
Specifically, the new "National Nine Articles" will continue the main line of strict supervision, risk prevention, and high-quality development:
Main line 1: Strict supervision, focusing on improving the whole life cycle management of listed companies, and also mentioning the supervision of securities and funds and other institutions. Among them, the core of emphasizing the supervision of institutional behavior lies in "handling the relationship between functionality and profitability", which should be directed to balance the "functionality" of serving the economy and people's livelihood and the "profitability" driven by performance.
Main line 2: To prevent risks, we must not only strengthen risk monitoring, research and judgment and disposal, but also establish a coordination mechanism for the release of major policy information. Improve expectation management, "incorporate the impact assessment of major economic or non-economic policies on the capital market into the macro policy orientation consistency assessment framework, and establish a coordination mechanism for the release of major policy information" to reduce the risk of capital market volatility caused by sudden policies, similar to the requirements of the Financial Commission of the State Council before 23.3.16, "all policies that have a significant impact on the capital market should be coordinated with the financial management department in advance to maintain the stability and consistency of policy expectations".
Main line 3: High-quality development, the starting point lies in the five major articles of service finance, new quality productivity, long-term money and long-term investment, and market value management. To support "long-term money and long-term investment", the first is to improve the basic system for long-term investment, such as vigorously developing equity funds, steadily reducing the comprehensive rate of the public fund industry, and changing from scale-oriented to investor return-oriented; second, to optimize the policy environment for equity investment in insurance funds, such as improving the performance evaluation, the regulatory system for equity investment in insurance funds, and improving the investment flexibility of annuities; and strengthening the market value management of listed enterprises. For the previous SASAC to include the market value management of central enterprises in the assessment of the person in charge of central enterprises, we have mentioned that with reference to the two pilot enterprises of China State Construction and Baowu, the market value management should include three parts: value realization, value marketing, and value creation (see the previous report "Investment Logic of the Market Value Management Assessment of Central Enterprises"). Strengthen information disclosure and corporate governance) and value realization (encourage cash dividends), while value marketing (communication with the market, etc.) is the basis for promoting value realization, and should also be included in the "internal and external assessment and evaluation system of the enterprise".
Among them, the 4.16 China Securities Regulatory Commission Listed Company Supervision Department answered reporters' questions on dividends and delisting hot issues, saying that the dividend is not up to standard and the implementation of other risk warnings (ST), mainly focusing on improving the stability and predictability of listed companies' dividends. In addition, the China Securities Regulatory Commission said that according to estimates, the number of delisted companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen is expected to be about 30 next year, and about 100 companies may touch this indicator and implement delisting risk warning next year, and these companies still have more than a year and a half to improve their operations and improve quality, and they will still not meet the standards at the end of 2025 before they will be delisted.
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and others: further strengthen financial support for green and low-carbon development
Event: On April 10, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) issued the Guiding Opinions on Further Strengthening Financial Support for Green and Low-Carbon Development.
Main content: It is mentioned that the capital market will further increase its support for green and low-carbon development. Support eligible enterprises to list or refinance at home and abroad, and raise funds for the construction and operation of green and low-carbon projects. Vigorously support eligible enterprises and financial institutions to issue green bonds and green asset-backed securities. Actively develop carbon neutrality bonds and sustainability-linked bonds. Support the issuance of real estate investment trusts (REITs) products for eligible infrastructure projects such as clean energy. Support local governments to include qualified construction projects in areas such as ecology and environmental protection into the scope of local government bond support. Strengthen financial support for eco-environment-oriented development (EOD) and improve relevant investment and financing models.
Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Promote the renewal of equipment in the industrial field
Event: On April 9, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting the Renewal of Equipment in the Industrial Field".
Main content: By 2027, the scale of equipment investment in the industrial field will increase by more than 25% compared with 2023, the penetration rate of digital R&D and design tools and the numerical control rate of key processes of industrial enterprises above designated size will exceed 90% and 75% respectively, and the digital transformation of industrial enterprises in large industrial provinces and cities and key parks will be fully covered, and the production capacity below the benchmark level of energy efficiency in key industries will be basically withdrawn. The energy efficiency of the main energy-using equipment has basically reached the energy-saving level, the intrinsic safety level has been significantly improved, the promotion and application of innovative products have been accelerated, and the proportion of advanced production capacity has continued to increase.
Brief comment: The follow-up should be released in many areas of equipment renewal plan, from the planning point of view, at least in 2027, digital transformation, energy efficiency transformation, advanced production capacity application is the main direction, among them, the central bank has set up 500 billion special re-loans for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation, and the follow-up should gradually increase the medium and long-term loans for the manufacturing industry, increase financial support in the central budget, and increase tax incentives for various types of special equipment.
2. Local policies: All localities will continue to stabilize the economy and promote automobile consumption to increase consumer finance and cash subsidy support.
Localities continue to stabilize the economy, continue to expand investment, promote consumption, and stabilize private enterprises, and Shandong, Hunan, Guangdong, Henan and other places have refined and launched the implementation plan for equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods in their provinces. Among them, automobile consumption as an important starting point, Shanghai fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles to give 2,800 yuan, 10,000 yuan cash subsidies, according to the Securities Daily, around the policy to promote the consumption of new energy vehicles, commercial banks have also launched a supporting auto finance interest rate concessions, installment subsidies, installment cashback subsidies and other concessions.
3. Industry and industrial policies: all localities will continue to increase the number of loose real estate, and take multiple measures to serve the high-level development of science and technology enterprises.
All localities continue to loosen up real estate, continue to optimize provident fund loans, issue housing purchase subsidies, etc., especially the core first and second lines continue to relax, including Zhengzhou can handle business-to-public loans if they meet the conditions, many cities have canceled the lower limit of the interest rate of commercial personal housing loans for the first house, Changsha no longer reviews the qualifications for house purchases, and "trades in the old for the new" to implement the policy of "recognising the house but not recognising the loan", and Xiamen has lowered the down payment ratio of the first set of provident fund loans to 20% and the second set to 30%.
Multiple measures to serve the high-level development of science and technology enterprises. Recently, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and other departments have taken measures to serve the high-level development of science and technology enterprises, including the 4.19 China Securities Regulatory Commission's "Sixteen Measures for the Capital Market to Serve the High-level Development of Science and Technology Enterprises", which put forward all-round supportive measures from listing financing, mergers and acquisitions, bond issuance, private equity investment, etc., and the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Several Policies and Measures on Further Supporting Foreign Institutions to Invest in Domestic Science and Technology Enterprises" to actively support overseas institutions and their invested science and technology enterprises to expand financing channels.
Contact: Xiong Yuan, Chief Economist of Guosheng Securities, Zhu Hui, Guosheng Macro Analyst, Liu Xinyu, Guosheng Macro Analyst, Yang Tao, Guosheng Macro Analyst, Liu Anlin, Guosheng Macro Analyst, Mu Renwen, Guosheng Macro Analyst, Xue Shuning, Guosheng Macro Researcher.