News 1+1丨What is the impact of the heavy deployment of the Politburo meeting on real estate, employment, etc.?

Original title: News 1+1丨What is the impact of the heavy deployment of the Politburo meeting on real estate, employment, etc.?

On September 26, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and plan the next step of economic work. From fiscal policy, monetary policy, to real estate, capital market, as well as enterprises, employment, and consumption, where is the strength of the latest important signals of the central government's deployment? To promote the sustained economic recovery, what is "unusual" about this meeting? What will be the impact? "News 1+1" connected with Liu Yuanchun, macroeconomist and president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, to bring analysis and interpretation.

How do you perceive new situations and problems?

Regarding the current economic situation, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee in September mentioned that "some new situations and problems have emerged in the current economic operation", what are the new situations and problems?

Liu Yuanchun, macroeconomist and president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics: The new situation and problems refer to the fact that compared with the economic situation we summarized at the beginning of the year, there have been some changes at this stage, which are mainly reflected in the following aspects:

External environment: Due to the continued weakness of the European and American economies, the comprehensive transformation of monetary policy, and at the same time the relaxation of our entire policy space, of course, also produced a further suppression of our exports by Europe and the United States, which brought pressure to the continuous growth of our subsequent orders.

Internal environment: We will see the release of economic data for July and August, which reflects the continued decline in consumption growth, the future outlook for investment is not optimistic, and more importantly, we see that the real estate market and the stock market are under pressure, resulting in overall economic indicators that are not optimistic. Therefore, in the face of such a situation, we need to grasp the key to the problem more directly and deeply, and at the same time introduce a series of incremental policies to face these new problems and new phenomena that exist.

Adjusted from "unwavering" to "hard work"

How do you see the difficulty of achieving the economic target for the whole year?

The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee in September pointed out that "strive to complete the annual economic and social development goals and tasks", such an expression has changed and adjusted compared with the previous "unswerving", does this mean that it is difficult to achieve the annual GDP economic growth target of 5%?

Liu Yuanchun, macroeconomist and president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics: The convening of this meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee is of special significance, because it faces the problem head-on and attaches great importance to the importance of stabilizing growth, confidence, real estate, and the stock market. Therefore, in this, we must see that confidence is firm and clear, and we must strive to achieve the targets set at the beginning of the year. We must also objectively and rationally judge the complexity of some of the problems we are facing, because from the data in July and August, our GDP growth rate in the third quarter may be at a level of 4.6%, and in order to achieve the annual target, our growth rate in the fourth quarter may be about 5.3%. Therefore, it will be difficult to achieve our goals for the whole year according to the established policy intensity and rhythm. Therefore, the intensity and rhythm of the entire counter-cyclical adjustment should be fully strengthened, which has led to some changes in the expressions that we have seen.

September Politburo meeting calls for "getting to the point"

What's the point?

In an effort to accomplish the goals and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee called for "grasping the key points." What do you value most about advancement? In the policies that have been introduced, what should be stabilized first?

Liu Yuanchun, macroeconomist and president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics: There is no doubt that the current focus is still on "expanding domestic demand". A very important key indicator of "expanding domestic demand" is to "stabilize confidence", and "stable confidence" comes from the stability of our capital market and the stability of the real estate market. Therefore, a very important key point of the Politburo meeting held this time is that it has continued to trace back to the two key points of "stabilizing real estate" and "stabilizing the stock market" from the simple "stabilizing investment" and "stabilizing consumption" in the past. At present, it seems that it has indeed had a timely effect, and it can play a very good key role in boosting our confidence and reversing expectations.

"It is necessary to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize"

What are the new requirements of the new formulation?

Liu Yuanchun, macroeconomist and president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics: This is the first time in recent years that this is the first time that we have expressed this in recent years, indicating that our goal of real estate regulation and control has gradually shifted from the original "risk control", that is, to prevent the outbreak of systemic financial risks and the contagion of risks, to the short-term "stop the decline and stabilize it". This stop fall includes the stability of a series of data such as trading volume and price parameters. This stability will play a positive role in the improvement of short-term demand, the recovery of confidence in the entire market, and the stability of government finances. Stabilizing real estate has a very important "bull's nose" effect in the short term, so the statement of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee meeting on "promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize" has also become one of the contents that everyone pays the most attention to and ponders the most.

Specific policy aspects:

When it comes to the supply side, the meeting made a comprehensive grasp, requiring that the loan support for the "white list" projects should be increased, and the construction of commercial housing should be strictly controlled, the stock should be optimized, and the quality should be improved, and there should be corresponding policies in these dimensions.

More importantly, on the demand side, further efforts should be made. This is not only reflected in the abolition of purchase and loan restrictions, but also the reduction of loan interest rates for real estate stock, which is crucial to the recovery of demand. Because a very important aspect of stabilizing real estate is to make the head enterprises relatively stable and the transaction demand relatively stable. The increase in demand-side policies will also have a positive effect on the stability of the market.

"To help businesses tide over the storm"

Who's going to help? How can it help?

Liu Yuanchun, macroeconomist and president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics: "To help enterprises tide over difficulties" is a new expression. In August, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics also specifically said that the operating difficulties of some enterprises have not been resolved. From the new data released in July and August, we will see that enterprises currently have the following difficulties:

The decline in operating performance, especially the general decline in investment income. Although the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 0.3% year-on-year from January to July, if we expand the sample size to enterprises under the designated size and the service industry, we will find that the current profit growth situation is not optimistic. From the semi-annual reports of listed companies in the first half of the year, it will also be found that nearly half of the corporate profits have not increased.

Orders are decreasing, investment opportunities are decreasing. This has led to the weakening of the expectations of many enterprises, and the confidence is relatively low, so there are some "lying flat" phenomena that everyone sees.

Non-normative enforcement and regulation. At present, some local governments, due to financial difficulties, have caused some non-standard law enforcement, which has brought interference to some small and medium-sized enterprises and private enterprises, and this interference has also led to a new round of decline in enterprise confidence and disorder in market order.

Of course, we must also note that there are also problems in the recovery of enterprise funds at present, because of the financial difficulties of local governments and the ineffective operation of some large enterprises, it will lead to the emergence of new debts, and a new "triangular debt phenomenon" will also appear, which will also lead to many new problems. The meeting also pointed out: "It is necessary to help enterprises tide over difficulties and further standardize the law enforcement and supervision behaviors related to enterprises." ”

How to advance through policy

Really form a "employment first" orientation?

Liu Yuanchun, macroeconomist and president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics: At present, we have seen that the employment difficulties have not been fundamentally alleviated, which has the pressure of demand of the entire economy and the factor of supply and quantity. However, it is certain that the central government attaches great importance to the issue of employment strategically, because it is not only an economic issue and a livelihood issue, but also a political issue, so the strategy of giving priority to employment is a very important strategic issue considered by the CPC Central Committee. The policy for key groups is mainly reflected in two aspects, one is youth employment, which is concentrated in the employment of college students, and the second is the employment of migrant workers. One of the most important reasons is that many labor-intensive industries are currently being hit hard, and at the same time, due to our current economic transformation, there are some problems with the demand for new jobs. So this includes both aggregate and structural issues. In order to solve these problems, we have formulated a series of employment policies over the years, and have achieved a series of results. From today's point of view, in order to ensure the strategic goal of giving priority to employment, we must have some new projects in terms of ensuring the main body and investment, so that there can be new employment demand. At the same time, the new project should also consider employment orientation, and we should not simply exclude some labor-intensive industries from the strategic goals, but should achieve a relative balance between employment stability and structural transformation in our policies.

How to understand "to combine the promotion of consumption and the benefit of people's livelihood"?

Liu Yuanchun, macroeconomist and president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics: "Promoting consumption" is definitely not stimulating consumption in the general sense, that is, expanding consumption through short-term stimulus. This is because the question of consumption is essentially an issue of income, and the question of income is essentially a question of income distribution and social construction. A very important expression of the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee this time includes "combining the promotion of consumption with benefiting the people's livelihood" and the elevation of the fundamental issue of expanding income to daily work. Some of the policies of "benefiting people's livelihood" are long-term construction, which is of great decisive significance for the continuous improvement of future income and the continuous consolidation of the future consumption base. Therefore, we will see that on the basis of some of the original stock policies, many incremental policies to expand consumption have been introduced, adding the concept of income and people's livelihood, and in fact, it is through some reforms and some social construction to make consumption reach a new height.

Source: CCTV news client