Yang Delong is the Chief Economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund and a director of the China Chief Economist Forum
On Monday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets continued their volatile trend, with the new energy sector performing relatively prominently, and the consumer sector also showing a certain stabilization and rebound. Hong Kong stocks rebounded sharply on Monday, especially the Hang Seng Index, which rose more than 2% intraday, and the Hang Seng Technology Index, which represents the technology and Internet sector, also rose more than 2% intraday. Recently, the Shanghai Composite Index has repeatedly fluctuated above 3,000 points, which shows that there is still a certain long and short divergence in the market above 3,000 points.
After the official promulgation of the new "National Nine Articles", the market style has undergone a great switch, and the sectors with low valuation and high dividend yield continue to perform strongly, and there has been a continuous upward offensive, indicating that listed companies are encouraged to pay cash dividends, and risk warnings and other measures may be implemented for companies that do not pay dividends or have a low dividend ratio all year round, so that market funds pay more attention to sectors and individual stocks with high dividend yields with profitability and cash reserves. Some underperforming stocks and theme stocks have fallen sharply, which is also the result of investors voting with their feet. The purpose of the promulgation of the new "National Nine Articles" is to build a high-quality capital market, including strict control of the entrance gate in terms of IPOs, control the quality of listed companies from the source, strictly supervise listed companies, crack down on violations of laws and regulations, and crack down on financial fraud, so as to create an open, fair, and Although cash dividends do not directly increase shareholders' equity, they reflect that enterprises do have cash to share, which reflects the profitability of enterprises, and also reflects the sense of social responsibility of enterprises, binding the interests of major shareholders and small and medium-sized shareholders, so it is more significant to encourage cash dividends in the A-share market. Of course, enterprises in different stages of development, the ability of cash dividends is not the same, for some enterprises in the growth stage, a large amount of R&D investment is needed every year, and the company uses net assets to generate a higher rate of return, at this time the motivation of cash dividends is insufficient, and the dividend ratio is low; and some enterprises in the mature stage, especially in the consumer industry, because they do not need a large amount of R&D investment, the dividend ratio is higher, generally more than 50%, and even the dividend rate of some brand liquor enterprises reached 75% last year , which is a powerful reward for investors.
The income of investors to invest in stocks mainly comes from three parts: the first is the income brought by the growth of the enterprise, which is the biggest benefit from value investment, that is, to grow together with the great enterprise; the second is the income of the enterprise to give back to investors through cash dividends; the third is to make money in the market by doing swings in the market fluctuations, which is the most difficult to grasp, but it is the most important for many investors. Therefore, it is recommended that everyone must adhere to the concept of value investment, correct the correct view of the source of investment income, and try to grow together with great enterprises, which requires everyone to choose a good industry, a good company, and a good price to layout. The current market is still in the position near the historical bottom, whether from the CSI 300 price-earnings ratio or from the issuance of new funds, are at the freezing point, indicating that the market sentiment is very low, which is the characteristics of the historical bottom, through the dip layout of some good stocks and good funds that have been mistakenly killed, and waiting patiently for the market to pick up is the best investment strategy.
From the perspective of the global market, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are still at the relative bottom of history, and the valuation of A-shares is also low, and the price-earnings ratio of CSI 300 is still near the bottom of history, only about 12 times, and the price-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng Index is at an extremely low valuation in history, so at this time, the return rate is relatively good in the long run. Insisting on value investing at the low point of the market and insisting on placing good stocks or good funds on dips is the main source of excess returns. Because under normal circumstances, the price of good industries and good companies is not cheap, and only when the market falls irrationally, especially when it continues to fall for a long time, can it obtain a relatively low buying point.
As the US CPI remained at a high level in March and exceeded market expectations, it increased by 3.5% year-on-year Many people are worried that inflation in the United States may rise further, because now the escalation of the situation in the Middle East affects international oil prices, which may eventually be transmitted to inflation, and the prices of commodities such as copper have also risen, which will have a certain impact on inflation, and the time of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut may be further delayed, from the previous market expectation of June to September, but now the benchmark interest rate in the United States has reached 5.25% ~ 5.5% If such a high benchmark interest rate is maintained for a long time, it will have a negative impact on U.S. companies, Residents will even cause great financial pressure on the US government, and now the US government's debt has far exceeded the GDP of the United States, reaching more than 30 trillion US dollars, and the annual interest rate burden is very heavy, because the US government has borrowed a large amount of debt, causing investors to question the credit of the US government, which has further increased the difficulty of the US government to issue treasury bonds, so now US Treasury Secretary Yellen is lobbying countries everywhere to buy US Treasury bonds. On the other hand, the US dollar's massive quantitative easing (QE) policy in the past few years, coupled with the US government's massive borrowing, has affected the dollar's creditworthiness.
As a hard currency, the price of gold has risen significantly, and the rise in gold prices is not over yet, and there is room for further upward movement in the medium and long term. Because gold as a natural currency, it can be said that it is a hard currency, able to resist the depreciation of paper money, not that gold is not an interest-bearing asset there is no room for appreciation, in fact, the production of gold is very limited, the use is also very small, so the main value of gold is its monetary attributes, so in the past two years I have been suggesting that you should lay out a certain gold ratio, is to hope that you can seize this opportunity, through the layout of a part of gold to resist inflation, resist currency depreciation, and resist inflation in the global situation. Now there are many uncertain factors in the turbulence of the international situation, which we can not predict, so the layout of a part of gold is a good way to resist these international turbulence, but gold assets include many aspects, physical gold, gold ETFs, gold stocks, gold theme funds, etc., the performance of the two years is good, so we must grasp the opportunity from the medium and long term to make investment, and have a profound logic, so as to be invincible for a long time.
