After a Chinese-mediated ceasefire agreement in early 2024, the Myanmar government forces officially ceasered fire with the three militias in northern Myanmar, Kokang, De'ang, and Rakhine. For Myanmar, which has been in the face of civil war and civil strife for many years, there is finally hope for repair of the devastation caused by the war. It also seems that China-Myanmar relations are slowly developing towards a pro-state trend.
But this hopeful calm lasted only 3 months when it was suddenly shattered by the Northern Expedition of the military's troops. Will Vietnam be the next or will it be the next Pakistan? Will Myanmar become China's hardcore brother?
1. Why did Myanmar suddenly change its hexagram?
It turned out that after the talks with the Russian delegation, Myanmar signed more than 50 bilateral military cooperation with Russia in 2024, and the Myanmar government and military received strong assistance from Russia. In order to crack down on civilian forces with close ties to the United States, the Burmese government forces eventually tore up the cease-fire agreement. The protracted civil unrest in northern Myanmar continues to be dealt with by force.
At this critical moment, the mainland People's Liberation Army (PLA) is massing on the China-Myanmar border. The Air Force and Army will carry out a live-fire exercise on our side of the China-Myanmar border, sending a very clear signal. It is to make the mainland's China-Myanmar border safe and stable.
2. The situation of the civil war in Burma
As early as 2023, the contest between the armed forces in northern Myanmar and the Myanmar military junta will become more and more intense. The film on the fight against telecom fraud in Myanmar released in mainland China at the beginning of 2024 also reflects the grim situation of wire fraud in Myanmar. It not only endangers the lives and property of mainland citizens, but also poses a huge threat to the peace and stability of Myanmar. Wire fraud is also an important factor in Myanmar's civil unrest.
The Burmese government, following talks with representatives of the Russian Ministry of Defense, has begun compulsory conscription. There was even a night military parade, which showed that the remaining combat strength of the Burmese army was still sufficient.
In the face of this situation, the armed forces of various civilian and local armed forces did not dare to rashly trigger large-scale conflicts. Judging from the current situation, the Mindi Armed Forces only want to control northern Myanmar, and the local Burmese government forces are weak in combat. According to local people, the Myanmar government's meagre revenue is simply not enough to support the local military readiness, and the local government army has no intention of fighting.
With the Burmese army unable to suppress it, the possibility of a spillover from the Burmese civil war cannot be underestimated. At present, there are even shells that have fallen on the territory of China. Therefore, China, ASEAN, and other countries are also actively urging Myanmar to promote peace talks.
3. Why is there a civil war in Myanmar?
Since 1960, civil strife in Myanmar has begun, mainly because Myanmar is a multi-ethnic and religiously diverse country. For example, northern Myanmar, where the situation is most tense, has been practiced since ancient times, and local forces have been in place. It is almost impossible for the Burmese government to achieve full control, and their troops are numbering tens of thousands at the parade alone. The military force far exceeds the Burmese government's ability to control it on the ground.
Another example is the Rakhine State, which is often openly opposed to the Burmese government, and is mostly Rohingya. Those who mainly believe in Islam are completely different from those who believe in Buddhism among the main ethnic groups in Myanmar. As a result, relations with the Burmese government are very bad, and civil strife often erupts. As a result, many refugees have poured into neighbouring Bangladesh, and Bangladesh, which is not wealthy, is also suffering from dealing with a large number of poor and innocent Burmese refugees.
In order to fight against the inequality of resource exploitation, people in some ethnic minority areas feel deprived of the resources and benefits they deserve, and seize various natural resources. The only way to defend "your own rights" is to join an anti-local armed group.
With the evolution of history, various local powers have expanded their own power. The struggle for local autonomy, coupled with the changing international political landscape, has led to the gradual introduction of foreign aid by local forces. For example, many militias in northern Myanmar are inextricably linked to NGOs, not only with frequent contacts, but also with deep cooperation from top to bottom.
An NGO is a non-governmental organization (NGO) established in Washington, D.C., funded by the U.S. government. Despite its name, NGOs are considered by many professionals to be funded by the U.S. government.
Many of these NGOs are essentially controlled by Western countries, and they represent the interests of Western countries. And to a certain extent, it acts as an agent and tool of Western countries in the target country.
Since 2024, the local militia has taken over a number of towns controlled by the former government forces. According to the Kachin Independence Army, the Mindiwu has captured nine Burmese camp strongholds and more than 50 outposts in 21 consecutive days. The offensive momentum of the Mindiwu is like singing all the way, and the reason for this must be self-evident.
Epilogue:
Whether Myanmar will become China's "hardcore brother" depends not only on the development of bilateral relations, but also on the international environment and Myanmar's own policy choices.
At present, Myanmar maintains a close cooperative relationship with China, but the future direction remains uncertain. China's determination to crack down on wire fraud across the border shows that China is promoting relations with Myanmar at the same time. It is also seeking a diversified diplomatic strategy to ensure that the interests of both countries are maximized.