"Judging from the current data and industry development trends, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainland China may exceed 50% 10 or 9 years ahead of schedule, that is, it will account for more than 50% in 2025 or 2026. Miao Wei, member of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and former minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at the inaugural meeting of the "China All-Solid-State Battery Industry-University-Research Collaborative Innovation Platform" in January.
I didn't expect this day to come so soon.
01, the rapid development of new energy passenger vehicles, the share of which has historically exceeded 50%
According to the latest data from the China Passenger Car Association, from April 1 to 14, the new energy vehicle market retailed 260,000 units, an increase of 32% year-on-year, and the passenger car market retailed 516,000 units in the same period, a year-on-year decrease of 11%.
As a result, in the first half of April, the market share of new energy passenger vehicles broke through the 50% mark for the first time, reaching 50.39%, of course, this is still about half a month's data, and the share since the beginning of this year is about 38%.
Considering the increasing proportion of new energy vehicles, a penetration rate of 50% will not be the end of the line.
This is undoubtedly a historic moment, which means that for every two people who buy a new car, one person chooses new energy vehicles, and new energy vehicles have become the mainstream of the market, while fuel vehicles have become a minority.
The figure of 50 per cent far exceeds the most optimistic estimates of the management concerned. In 2020, China set a target of more than 50% penetration rate of new energy vehicles by 2035, which is equivalent to completing 50% of the national planning target 11 years ahead of schedule!
From 2005 to 2015, it took 10 years for China's new energy vehicles to break through 1%, and from 2016 to 2019, the penetration rate increased to 5% in more than 3 years.
In 2023, the annual penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in China was 35.7%, and in 2022, this figure was only 27.6%.
Once a tipping point is broken, new energy vehicles will achieve explosive growth, a bit like the "iPhone moment" when smartphones surpass the market share of traditional mobile phones.
02. Phenomenon: New energy vehicles are accelerating to replace fuel vehicles
In this new era, new energy vehicles will exist in a more intelligent and efficient form, and fuel vehicles will gradually withdraw from the historical stage. This process may continue for a long time, but the trend is already evident.
The continuous increase in the share of new energy vehicles means that the share of traditional fuel vehicles is gradually decreasing, and the sales of fuel vehicles in the mainland market have been declining for many years.
According to the data of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the market sales of conventional fuel vehicles will reach 18.18 million units in 2020, only 17.17 million units in 2021, 14.88 million units in 2022, and 14.043 million units of traditional fuel passenger vehicles in 2023, showing a downward trend year by year.
From January to March this year, the cumulative sales of traditional fuel vehicles were 2.128 million, a rare increase of 4.9% year-on-year, but the growth rate of new energy vehicles was faster, and the share of fuel vehicles further shrank.
The sales of traditional fuel vehicles are facing a collapse, especially the joint venture fuel vehicles represented by Japanese manufacturers are in a more difficult situation. In just half a month in April, the share of joint venture car companies lost 13 percentage points.
Among them, the market share of Japanese cars in China was as high as 30%, but in March this year, the market share was only 14.4%, and the market share was cut in half.
According to official data, in March this year, Honda sold 60,400 new cars in China, a year-on-year plunge of 26.3%, setting a record for the largest year-on-year decline since July 2023, Nissan sold 87,000 vehicles in China, a year-on-year decline of 32.6%, and Toyota, as the leader, sold 132,000 vehicles, not the same as the peak of 200,000 units.
The trend of some star fuel vehicles is more representative. In March, Volkswagen Lavida fell by 36.4%, Accord fell by 72.6%, Toyota Camry fell by 59.2% year-on-year, and Corolla fell by 54.4% year-on-year.
The collapse of sales has brought a series of consequences: the value retention rate of fuel vehicles has declined, the price of second-hand cars has collapsed, and more and more fuel vehicle owners have accelerated the replacement of new energy vehicles. Many joint venture car companies are caught in the turmoil of dealers and 4S stores withdrawing from the network and closing stores. Many car buyers report that "they can't get the car after paying the money, and the after-sales service is not guaranteed", resulting in a large number of consumer disputes and rights protection.
It's a vicious circle that doesn't seem to have a solution yet.
03, reason: crush fuel vehicles in technology and user experience
If it was mainly driven by policy before, now new energy vehicles are turning to market-oriented and becoming a new choice for consumers to travel. Many users said: "After driving a new energy vehicle, you can't go back (fuel vehicle)."
Indeed, new energy vehicles have surpassed traditional fuel vehicles in terms of power, quietness, and intelligence.
In particular, plug-in hybrid, which integrates the functions of fuel, range extension and pure electric, is better than fuel vehicles in terms of driving experience and cost, and has supported the foundation of the rapid growth of new energy since this year.
Plug-in hybrid models can "use electricity for short distances and oil for long distances", which is the most suitable electrification product for most Chinese families who can only own one car.
Since the beginning of this year, the cost of new energy vehicles has been declining, and the "same price of oil and electricity" has brought huge pressure to fuel vehicle manufacturers.
Fuel vehicles still seem to have advantages in terms of cruising range and ease of refueling. However, with the continuous development and improvement of hybrid technology, the boundary between fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles is gradually blurring.
New energy vehicles are not only the transformation of the power system, but also an important carrier for the intelligent development of automobiles.
For example, if you want to realize the function of automatic driving, the whole car needs to use more than 10 ultra-clear cameras, ultrasonic radar, and the power consumption of the controller.
The battery of fuel vehicles is generally only about 12V, and the energy provided is 0.72kWh, so it cannot support the power consumed by the operation of intelligent equipment.
New energy vehicles are equipped with advanced sensors, controllers, actuators and other equipment to achieve real-time perception and intelligent decision-making of vehicle status and environmental information, thereby improving driving safety and ride comfort.
04, prospects: to help China become an automobile power, open up the international market
The dream of becoming an automobile power is the dream of many Chinese car people, which is almost impossible in the era of fuel vehicles, but it has been inadvertently realized in the era of new energy vehicles.
What is an automobile power? Miao Wei has previously issued a special document, putting forward the following three conditions:
First, there should be enterprises among the world's top ten, not domestic 6 + 8, but in the international open environment among the world's top ten (according to the brand), the world's tenth annual production and sales of about 3 million vehicles.
Second, there must be some core key technologies that can lead and drive the development of the automobile industry.
To have a place in the international automotive market.
Among these three conditions, in addition to technology, there are car companies among the top ten in the world, which is one of the important conditions, because the automotive industry is a globally competitive industry. In 2023, BYD will rank ninth in the world with 3.02 million units, supporting the prototype of "automobile power".
China's new energy vehicles are already internationally competitive, this is not our self-style, but Tesla CEO Elon Musk said: "If there are no trade barriers, Chinese car companies will almost destroy most of the other car companies in the world, they are super strong." ”
As one of China's "new three types" in overseas markets, new energy vehicles will be exported 1.203 million units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 77.6%, and in this year, China will become the world's largest automobile exporter with 4.91 million units.
From January to March this year, Thailand sold a total of 22,000 electric vehicles, Chinese brands accounted for 20,000, accounting for 9 percent, and BYD alone sold 10,000 units; in developed countries Australia, Chinese electric vehicle brands accounted for more than 20% of the market, and 6 of the 10 best-selling brands in the local area were Chinese; In March 2024, among the top 10 Russian car brands in sales, in addition to the first Lada, Chinese brands occupied the second to ninth places.
New energy vehicles going overseas not only bring sales, but also obtain more profits, making up for the involution of the domestic market.
Not only that, the "reverse joint venture" of technology output has been realized by Chinese automobiles.
Toyota, Volkswagen, and Stellantis have also accelerated their technological cooperation with Chinese new energy brands.
Summary: The tide of China's new energy vehicles is now unstoppable, forming a complete and competitive industrial chain to help Chinese automobiles achieve "corner overtaking". This makes people have to admire BYD's decision of "ALL IN new energy" in March 2022, grasping the trend of the times and occupying 1/3 of the share of new energy; (Text|.) DA Bin)