Liu Jiaren, Zhou Zixin, and Li Wenjing of Cinda Securities Co., Ltd. recently conducted research on Proya and released a research report "23 years & 24Q1 continue to perform well, enrich new products & upgrade reserves to help the brand continue to grow high", this report gives a buy rating to Proya, and the current stock price is 103.6 yuan.
Proya (603605)
Event: The company released the 23-year annual report and the first quarter report of 24-year, the company achieved revenue of 8.905 billion yuan/yoy+39.45% in 23 years, net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.194 billion yuan/yoy+46.06%, 23Q4 revenue of 3.656 billion yuan/yoy+50.86%, net profit attributable to the parent company of 448 million yuan/yoy+39.06%, 24Q1 revenue of 2.182 billion yuan/yoy+34.56%, net profit attributable to the parent company of 303 million yuan/yoy+45.58%。
By brand: the core brand continued to grow well, and the reserves of new products & upgrades were abundant. (1) Proya brand: achieved revenue of 7.177 billion yuan/yoy + 36.36% in 23 years, and the acceptance of large single products of the brand & consumer stickiness were further enhanced. From the perspective of 24 years, 1) ruby & source force are the core of the existing large single product lines: (1) ruby series: ruby cream 3.0 is expected to maintain good growth after the upgrade, and ruby essence 3.0 was upgraded and released on April 18, which is expected to boost the growth rate. (2) Yuanli series: Yuanli Cream 2.0 has been recognized by consumers after the upgrade, and the growth rate is excellent, and Yuanli Essence is also expected to be upgraded in H2. 2) The sunscreen matrix continues to improve: 24Q1 has launched 1 new online (shield sunscreen) + 2 offline sunscreens, and enhanced the awareness of shield sunscreen through free formal wear, linkage music festivals and other forms, or can look forward to the follow-up 618 promotion. (2) Caitang: 23 years to achieve revenue of 1.001 billion yuan/yoy + 75.06%. From the perspective of 24 years, we expect that Q2 is expected to launch new base makeup products, and H2 may achieve better growth with the blessing of new products. (3) Yuefuyuan: 23 years to achieve revenue of 303 million yuan/yoy +61.82%. Positioning as an "oily skin care expert", targeting young women such as college students, it is expected to gain more increments through positioning expansion under the trend of consumers pursuing "quality-price ratio". (4) OR: Achieve revenue of 215 million yuan/yoy+71.17% in 23 years, and continue to strengthen the mentality of "Asian scalp health expert". (5) Other brands: 23 years to achieve revenue of 194 million yuan/YOY +18.86%.
In terms of channels: the proportion of online has further increased. (1) Online: 23 years to achieve revenue of 8.274 billion yuan/yoy + 42.96%/accounting for 93.07%, of which direct sales/distribution to achieve revenue of 6.748 billion/1.526 billion yuan, an increase of 50.70%/16.49% year-on-year respectively;(2) offline: 23 years to achieve revenue of 616 million yuan/yoy + 7.35%/accounting for 6.93%, of which daily chemical/other channels year-on-year respectively +11.59%/-6.98%. In terms of volume and price, the average price/sales volume of skin care & cleansing in 23Q4 was +35%/+10% year-on-year respectively, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of large single products (essences and creams) with higher unit prices, and the average price/sales volume of beauty and makeup were +46%/+21% year-on-year respectively, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of Caitang brand revenue with higher average prices. In 24Q1, the average price/sales volume of skin care & cleansing was +51%/-13% year-on-year, and the average price/sales volume of beauty and makeup was +23%/+27% year-on-year, respectively.
From the perspective of profitability: the increase in the proportion of online direct sales with high gross profit drove the gross profit margin to continue to rise. In 23 years, the company's gross profit margin/period expense ratio/net profit margin were 69.93%/51.01%/13.82%, respectively, +0.23/+0.89/+0.80pct year-on-year, and the gross profit margin was structurally improved due to the increase in the proportion of high gross profit online direct sales; On the expense side, the sales/management/finance/R&D expense rates were 44.61%/5.11%/-0.66%/1.95%, respectively, +0.98/-0.01/-0.02/-0.06pct year-on-year, and the increase in sales rate was mainly affected by the increase of 1.79pct to 39.69% in the image promotion fee rate, mainly due to the incubation of new brands and the exploration of offline & overseas channels. 24Q1 gross profit margin/period expense ratio/net profit margin were 70.11%/50.86%/14.44%, +0.07/+2.62/+0.73pct year-on-year, respectively, on the expense side, sales/management/finance/R&D expense rate was +3.62/-0.36/+0.42/-1.05pct, the core of the rate increase during the period came from the growth of sales rate, and the growth of other income and asset impairment losses significantly narrowed year-on-year to promote the increase in net profit margin.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company continues to deliver excellent growth, in 24 years, Proya brand & Caitang large single product upgrade/new product reserves are sufficient, growth brands Yue Fu Yuan, OR is expected to continue to grow high after adjustment, superimposed on the company's forward-looking strategic layout in channel operation, is expected to promote the brand to continue to achieve better growth than the industry. We expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2024 to 2026 to be 15.4/19.3/2.36 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 29.2%/25.0%/22.1% year-on-year respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 27/21/17X respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk factors: The performance of the company's new products is less than expected, and the effect of consumers breaking the circle is less than expected.
According to the calculation of the research report data released in the past three years, the research team of Wu Jincao of Soochow Securities has conducted in-depth research on the stock, with an average forecast accuracy of 91.41% in the past three years, and its forecast attributable net profit in 2024 is 1.508 billion yuan, and the predicted PE is 27.26 based on the current price.
The breakdown of the latest earnings estimates is as follows:
A total of 13 institutions have rated the stock in the last 90 days, with 9 having a buy rating and 4 having an overweight rating, with an average institutional price target of 131.81 over the last 90 days.
The above content is compiled by Securities Star based on public information, generated by an algorithm (Network Information Calculation No. 310104345710301240019), and has nothing to do with the position of this site, if there is a problem with the data, please contact us. This article is a compilation of data and does not constitute any investment advice for you, investment is risky, please make a cautious decision.
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