On April 19, local time, a number of Iranian media reported that explosions occurred at Iran's Isfahan Airport and Shekari Air Base, and subsequent reports from Israeli and American media confirmed that this was an "anti-retaliation" action by the Israeli military against Iran's previous retaliation against Israel.
So far, the Iranian side has not reported too many casualties, and Israel's previous statements have also indicated that this round of retaliation will be limited. The problem is that Iran retaliated against Israel because of the Israeli airstrike on the Iranian embassy in Syria, and the source of the matter is actually Israel.
Israel launched air strikes against Iran
Now Israel is retaliating against Iran for its retaliation, and Iran has said before that if Israel "harms Iran again", Iran will immediately retaliate on a larger scale.
In other words, if the current model of Israel and Iran continues, it is clear that a vicious circle will be formed, and even if both sides are restrained at first, once the vicious circle begins, the situation will not be able to stop, and a major war may break out.
So the key now is how Iran will respond to Israel's counter-retaliatory behavior, and what does Israel think?
First of all, judging from the objectives of Israel's retaliatory actions, it is clear that there is restraint in terms of firepower.
Iranian nuclear facilities
The commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is responsible for protecting Iran's nuclear facilities, said in an interview with the media a few days ago that once Israel really does this, then Iran will first strike at Israel's nuclear facilities, and then it will change its current nuclear policy and seek to build nuclear weapons.
This is, in effect, a veiled message to Israel that Iran's nuclear facilities must not be targeted by Israel, otherwise the matter will not be over.
And now, judging by the information revealed by the Western media and even the Iranian state media, Iran's nuclear facilities are currently safe. Both Iranian state television and the International Atomic Energy Agency have confirmed that Iran's nuclear facilities have been completely undamaged.
This also confirms from the side that Israel's counter-retaliation is still relatively restrained, at least it is not ready to really start a war with Iran.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
Based on this, although Israel's retaliatory actions are a bit arbitrary, the situation in the Middle East may not really start a vicious circle, or even if it does, it will be in a decreasing way and eventually gradually dissipate.
To put it simply, the Israeli airstrike on the Iranian embassy in Syria is a very bad example, although Iran's massive retaliation looks alarming.
However, because the information was reported to Saudi Arabia and other countries two days in advance, and Saudi Arabia and other countries informed the United States and Israel of the information, the Israeli side was fully prepared to intercept most of the missiles and drones launched by Iran, without causing large-scale damage.
Now Israel is retaliating against Iran, choosing to act simultaneously in Syria, Iraq, and Iran itself, but it also avoids Iran's vital points, and the target of the attack on Iran itself is relatively small.
Israeli drones
Next, if Iran retaliates, it may bypass Israel itself and attack targets outside Israel, and if Israel retaliates, it will naturally bypass Iran itself, so that the two sides will gradually return to the previous "proxy war" model from the retaliation game directly against each other's homeland.
It is also a way to de-escalate the situation in the Middle East.
Of course, this is only a relatively ideal state, and if we want to really avoid a vicious circle between Israel and Iran, and prevent things from getting bigger and bigger, it depends on whether Israel's retaliatory actions will stop in the future.
In particular, it should be noted that before this Israeli retaliation, it had taken Iran's nuclear facilities as the target of retaliation, and although it did not directly attack the nuclear facilities in the end, the location of the attack was chosen Isfahan Province, an important city of Iran's nuclear facilities.
Iranian missiles
Similarly, in Iran's previous retaliation against Israel, although it notified Israel in advance and allowed Israel to intercept most of the missiles, it used hypersonic missiles for the strike on the Israeli air base, and Israel had no way to intercept it, so it also caused some damage to the airfield of the Iranian embassy in Syria that Israel took off.
The Israeli side said that the damage was very minor, but the US media reported that Iran used hypersonic missiles, which can also be regarded as Iran's deterrence against Israel, and the implication is that I don't want to fight you now, so let you intercept a large number of my missiles, not that I can't deter you.
Through the retaliatory actions of Israel and Iran, which restrain each other but also implicitly threaten, it can be seen that the hostility and distrust between the two sides are still very obvious.
As far as Israel is concerned, because the conflict with the Palestinian resistance organization Hamas is continuing in Gaza, the entire Islamic world is dissatisfied with Israel, and a big fight with Iran at this time will only make the Sunni Arab countries, which were originally a little bit out of deal with Iran, all support Iran and increase their own pressure;
Iranian President Raisi
Moreover, if Israel and Iran were to go to war at this time, then Iran would be fighting for Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip, and the international community would also believe that this was the result of Israel's military operation in the Gaza Strip. But in fact, Israel and Iran are old enemies, and even if there is no incident in Gaza, the contradictions between the two sides still exist objectively.
All in all, from Israel's point of view, if they fight Iran now, they will be at fault, and Iran will gain the support of public opinion in the Middle East and even the world, which is not good for them.
From Iran's point of view, Iran's domestic economy is not good at the moment due to Western sanctions, and a direct war with Israel is likely to lead to domestic political instability.
In addition, from the perspective of the United States, attrition of Iran in the form of a proxy war is its long-term strategy in the Middle East, and it is naturally unwilling to end up in person.
U.S. Army Special Forces
To sum up, whether it is the United States or Iran, the hostility between each other is very strong, and the current restraint is a "last resort", so it is very fragile. If either side loses its grip, or if something happens in the process of retaliation, it could escalate the situation again, from the current mutual restraint to a real fight.