Foreign Minister Wang Yi began his visit to the three countries, the first and second of which were ASEAN countries, namely Indonesia, the largest country in ASEAN, and Cambodia, which is much smaller. Against the backdrop of the Philippines' increasingly rampant challenge to China's red lines, China has a new layout in the South China Sea.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi began his visit to three Southeast Asian countries, the first and second of which were ASEAN countries, namely Indonesia, the most populous country in ASEAN, and Cambodia, which is much smaller. The third country is Papua New Guinea, which borders Indonesia, and Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit is not only to stabilize the situation, but also to eliminate the "sowing discord" of the United States. We are focusing on Indonesia and Cambodia.
(Foreign Minister Wang Yi meets with Indonesian President-elect Prabowo)
Against the backdrop of the Philippines' provocations in the South China Sea, its frequent violations of China's red lines, and the enlisting of the United States and Japan to support it, China's foreign minister's visit can be said to be a new "operation" for China's new layout in the South China Sea. To put it simply, the 10 ASEAN countries are divided into countries bordering the South China Sea and non-countries in the South China Sea according to their geographical location, and Indonesia and Cambodia are typical representatives of these two types of countries, respectively.
China's new plan is to work on both sides at the same time, to maximize the understanding and support of ASEAN member states, to separate the Philippines from the rest of ASEAN, and to isolate the Marcos Jr. government in the South China Sea to the greatest extent. During his visit to Indonesia, Foreign Minister Wang Yi will chair the fourth meeting of the China-Indonesia High-level Dialogue Cooperation Mechanism and attend the seventh meeting of the China-Cambodia Intergovernmental Coordination Committee during his visit to Cambodia.
(Former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen and his son, current Prime Minister Hun Manet)
Against the backdrop of the U.S. economic "de-risking" and supply chain shifts in order to counter China, the 10 ASEAN countries have replaced the United States as China's largest trading partner the year before last. China's Belt and Road Initiative, the Trans-Asian Railway, and the Lancang-Mekong Basin Community with a Shared Future are closely linking China and ASEAN countries.
What we need to be clear about is that the United States is so actively provoking the Philippines to confront China in the South China Sea in order to undermine China's relations with ASEAN countries, disrupt China's strategic layout, and ultimately to curb China's economic growth, increase its influence, and prevent China's rise.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is fully cooperating with the U.S. strategy to drive a wedge between China and ASEAN under the guise of sovereignty in the South China Sea. After returning from the United States to participate in the summit between Japan and the Philippines, Marcos Jr. immediately publicly drew a "red line" for China, that is, if the South China Sea dispute results in the death of Filipino soldiers, the Philippines will immediately invoke the US-Philippine "mutual defense treaty" and ask the United States to intervene, and the top US government officials, including President Biden, Secretary of State Blinken, and Secretary of Defense Austin, have all publicly made "commitments" to this statement.
Therefore, the Philippine side will inevitably provoke China's sovereignty even more frantically. According to the latest news, the Philippine and U.S. militaries will hold a "shoulder-to-shoulder" joint military exercise from late April to early May, sinking a supply ship that China sold to the Philippine Navy in the early years. The Philippine military's response to this was more like "there is no silver three hundred taels here", saying that "it was not intentional", but instead confirmed its intention to target China. There are all kinds of indications that the Marcos Jr. administration has not only not heeded China's advice, but has intensified its efforts.
(Bringing in the United States and Japan as helpers, Marcos Jr. seems to be more confident)
With a population of 276 million, Indonesia is the most populous of the 10 ASEAN countries. At the same time, Indonesia is also a neighboring country in the South China Sea, and has an exclusive economic zone demarcation dispute with China in the South China Sea, but Indonesia and China do not have a sovereignty dispute over islands and reefs in the South China Sea. Two other countries that have sovereignty disputes with China over islands and reefs in the South China Sea, Vietnam and Malaysia, have now clearly distanced themselves from the Philippines and expressed support for China's proposed draft Code of Conduct in the South China Sea.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to Indonesia at this time and held talks with incumbent President Joko Widodo and President-elect Prabowo are both aimed at ensuring the continuity of Indonesia's policy in the South China Sea and sustaining the existing friendly and cooperative relations between China and Indonesia.
Cambodia also completed the change of prime minister last year, and former Prime Minister Hun Sen's son Hun Manet has become the new prime minister, and Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit at this time is also to ensure that Cambodia can maintain the consistency of its China policy after the leadership change. Once these two countries maintain the stability of their policies in the South China Sea and toward China, then China will have the confidence to thwart the Philippine ambitions in the South China Sea, and thus the U.S. South China Sea strategy behind the Philippines.
(China will never allow sovereignty in the South China Sea to be lost in the slightest)
Of course, we have to prepare for the worst for the situation in the South China Sea. However, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is also completely unsure of how the United States can "intervene" in the situation in the South China Sea and whether it will send US troops to fight the PLA for the Philippines to occupy those islands and reefs. A few days ago, when he was interviewed by a reporter from Philippine TV, he was directly asked these two questions, and after a few seconds of awkward hesitation, he offered to avoid them.
However, we are curious to see how the United States and the Philippines would react if this scenario happened: Suppose a Chinese coast guard ship used water cannons to prevent a Philippine coast guard ship from forcibly entering a certain sea area as usual, and as a result, the water cannon sprayed a Philippine coast guard sailor into the sea and drowned, how would the Philippines and the United States assess the accident? Will the sailor be "killed by an armed attack"? Will the Philippines ask the United States to trigger the US-Philippine "mutual defense treaty"? Will the United States admit it? This is actually one of the emergencies that may occur in the South China Sea at present.