There are all kinds of indications that the Philippines, which believes that it has the commitment of the US military, has the courage to strike first against China in the confrontation in the direction of the South China Sea.
The Philippine military announced in advance that the two militaries would work together to sink a Chinese-made ship during this year's exercise.
[In this year's "Shoulder to Shoulder" military exercise, the US and Philippine forces made a series of special arrangements]
Although the Philippine military insists that this arrangement is "of no special significance" and is not aimed at any country, combined with the arrangement of the entire exercise and some recent special movements of the Philippine military, the outside world can still see that the Philippine military is improving its combat capability in view of possible regional conflicts in the direction of the South China Sea in the future, so that it can confront China with the support of the United States and India.
According to information revealed by a Philippine military spokesman, the target ship to be sunk during the exercise, named "Kaliraya Lake", is a civilian oil tanker built by a shipyard in Zhejiang, China, with a displacement of about 5,000 tons.
The ship originally belonged to the Philippine National Oil Corporation, but in 2014, it was transferred to the Philippine Navy, becoming the first large supply ship of the Philippine Navy and the only Chinese-made ship equipped by the Philippine Army. In 2020, the ship was decommissioned and mothballed.
[The target ship mentioned by the Philippine side - the "Kaliraya Lake" manufactured by a Chinese shipyard]
In July 2023, the Philippine military wanted to use the "Lake Carilaya" as a target ship and sank it in another series of military exercises between the United States and the Philippines, but in the process of being towed to the exercise area, the ship ran aground off the coast of Bataan Province in the Philippines and did not get out of trouble until November last year.
It should be noted that in the 2023 "Shoulder to Shoulder" military exercise, the United States and the Philippines simulated the use of weapons such as "Seahorse" rocket artillery to strike at sea targets, and finally sank a retired Philippine frigate built during World War II.
Compared with this frigate with a displacement of less than 1,000 tons, although the "Kaliraya Lake" is not a standard military ship, it was built later, has a larger displacement, and should have a stronger ability to resist attacks, which is undoubtedly more suitable for this year's exercise.
[The retired frigate of the Philippine army that was sunk in last year's "shoulder to shoulder" military exercise]
After all, the US military has just deployed the "Typhon" missile launch system, which can launch a variety of missiles, to the Philippines, obviously in order to show off its muscles. If the "Lake Carilaya" can be successfully sunk, the United States and the Philippines will be able to demonstrate to the outside world their ability to strike other countries' fleets in the South China Sea.
There is another special feature of this year's military exercise, that is, some subjects of the military exercise are not carried out in the Philippines or territorial waters, but outside the scope of the territorial waters, going deeper into the South China Sea, and even including the subject of seizing islands from other countries.
At the same time, there is news in India that within a few days, the first Indian-made "BrahMos" anti-ship missile system will be airlifted by one C-17 and one Il-76 transport plane of the Indian Air Force to Clark International Airport on Luzon Island in the Philippines and officially delivered to the Philippine army. Earlier, the Philippine Marine Corps sent personnel to India to conduct training in the use of the BrahMos system.
[The Philippines ordered a batch of "BrahMos" anti-ship missiles from India]
It is possible that the Philippine military will make an appearance of the "BrahMos" missile in the "shoulder to shoulder" military exercise to prove that it already has a stronger anti-ship capability, but considering that the relevant personnel need a certain amount of time to familiarize themselves with the equipment, the Philippine military may not officially use the "BrahMos" missile to attack the "Lake Carilaya" during the exercise.
Even so, the outside world can still see that Manila is not only relying on the United States to use the United States' security commitments to maximize its own benefits, but also constantly improving its naval and air combat capabilities through the procurement of cutting-edge weapons and other means, so as to better cooperate with the United States in the future, carry out operations in the South China Sea, or challenge China alone when needed.
In addition to the upcoming "BrahMos" missiles, the Philippine military is also considering purchasing a batch of fighter jets and several submarines, but the relevant contracts have not yet been formalized.
Judging from public information, the Philippine side should choose between the second-hand F-16 and the Swedish "Gripen" as the main fighter of the future Air Force.
[The Philippine military previously showed some interest in the "Gripen" fighter]
Submarines are currently being selected among the products of South Korea, Spain, France, and other countries, but considering the rapid development of Japan-Philippines relations in recent times, and the fact that Japan is trying to further break through constitutional restrictions and sell weapons and equipment to foreign countries, Japan may catch up and win the submarine order.
This series of actions by the United States and the Philippines will naturally have a negative impact on the situation in the South China Sea, but it is still difficult to change the overall situation in the South China Sea.
The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is strong in this direction and is further strengthening its combat forces in the direction of the Philippines in light of changes in the situation. A few days ago, a foreign media reporter photographed the PLA's Wuzhen-7 drone flying in the air more than 30 nautical miles west of Subic Bay in the Philippines, proving that the PLA is carrying out intelligence collection work in response to possible actions of the United States and the Philippines in the near future.
Coupled with the space-based intelligence provided by many domestic remote sensing satellites, the PLA can control the movements of the United States and the Philippines in a timely manner. Although China will not take the initiative to escalate the situation, it can immediately retaliate if the United States and the Philippines make dangerous moves. The Philippine army's "BrahMos" anti-ship missiles can only be fired in one round at most, and they will become a pile of scrap metal under the countermeasures of the PLA's long-range firepower.
[A foreign media reporter photographed the PLA Wuzhen-7 that appeared in the airspace of the South China Sea]
Therefore, the United States and the Philippines flexing their "muscles" to China by deliberately sinking Chinese-made ships and other actions will not only prevent China from throwing a mouse, but will also allow China to gradually adjust its strategy in the South China Sea and further strengthen preparations for military struggle in the direction of the South China Sea in addition to diplomatic efforts.
It cannot be ruled out that in the future, the PLA will deploy air defense and coastal defense forces on the three major islands in Nansha to cooperate with naval ships to force US and Philippine warships back to port.