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introduction
The South China Sea, a sea that has been disputed since ancient times, is once again in the spotlight of global attention. The rupture of the "gentlemen's agreement" between the Philippines and China at Ren'ai Jiao is not only a simple political event, but also a game involving hundreds of billions of economic interests. When the Marcos administration openly tore up the agreement, the broken ship, which had been on Ren'ai Jiao for 25 years, seemed to be ushering in its "big end".
In this game, the United States looms large, and its support for the Philippines seems to have given the Marcos government enough "courage". However, when the trilateral summit between the United States, Japan, and the Philippines comes to an end, is the Philippines really ready to meet this "100 billion temptation"? Or is this just one step in a larger chess game?
The "gentlemen's agreement" between the Philippines and China has broken down
The so-called "gentlemen's agreement" refers to an agreement reached with China during the Duterte administration of the Philippines. The content is that the Philippines must not reinforce warships, send additional personnel, or hype, and must notify the Chinese side in advance before transporting supplies. A "gentlemen's agreement" was once a tacit understanding between the Philippines and China on the Ren'ai Jiao issue, but now it has become a trigger that is about to break out. The Marcos administration's obstinate approach has torn up this fragile balance and pushed the relationship between the two countries to a new crossroads.
The 25-year stalemate was once broken. This is not a political contest, but an economic game. The shipwreck in the Philippines, once a symbol on Second Thomas Shoal, has become a symbol of tension between the two countries. The Marcos administration's breach of the treaty has undoubtedly added new variables to the already complex situation in the South China Sea. In this game, China's response has been closely watched. Chinese fishing boats are gathering in the South China Sea, Chinese warships and Chinese coast guard ships are on standby, and the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is about to begin shooting drills. This series of actions by China is undoubtedly a powerful response to the Philippines' breach of the treaty.
However, the Philippines does not seem to be backing down. Philippine security adviser Arnold's remarks added fuel to the fire, claiming that the agreement was an attempt to split the Philippines and weaken its determination to "defend its sovereignty." This series of actions by the Philippines is undoubtedly playing with fire, and its consequences are unpredictable. In this game, economic factors are undoubtedly an important part that cannot be ignored. The Philippines' breach of the treaty has undoubtedly cast a shadow over the economic relations between the two countries. China is the largest trading partner of the Philippines, and the Philippines' breach of the treaty will undoubtedly affect the economic and trade cooperation between the two countries.
However, the Philippines does not seem to have been deterred by this. The Marcos regime has the audacity to seek investment resources from China, seeking to treat its summit with the United States and Japan and economic exchanges between China and the Philippines as two completely separate areas. This seemingly absurd but extremely cunning statement is undoubtedly playing with fire. The Philippine tourism industry has also been affected, and the decline in Chinese tourists is undoubtedly a heavy blow to the Philippine tourism industry, which has Chinese tourists as the main consumer group.
A double-edged sword for investment and trade
The Philippines, a dynamic emerging market, has attracted the attention of many foreign investors. The inflow of Chinese capital has injected strong impetus into the economic development of the Philippines. However, with the breakdown of the "gentlemen's agreement", this momentum seems to be waning.
The impact of the withdrawal of Chinese capital on the Philippine economy should not be underestimated. For a long time, China has been an important trading partner of the Philippines, and economic cooperation between the two countries has always been an important support for the Philippine economy. With political tensions, the prospects for economic cooperation have become murky.
The Philippines is dependent on the Chinese market for its agricultural and manufacturing products, and Chinese tourists and investment are also crucial to the country's tourism and economic development. With tensions in the relationship, this mutually beneficial situation is being challenged. The decline in trade volume will affect the economic interests of the two countries and is more likely to have an impact on regional economic stability.
Internally, the Philippines has urgent problems such as economic inflation, high unemployment, energy security, and food security, while externally, political tensions, capital withdrawal, and trade volatility have followed.
A cold winter for tourism
Behind the disputes in the South China Sea is not only a political and economic contest, but also an area that has been overlooked – tourism. The Philippines, a tourist destination known for its sunny beaches and friendliness, is facing an unprecedented winter.
For the Philippines, tourism is not only an industry, but also an important pillar of the economy. Every year, millions of Chinese tourists flock to the Philippines, bringing great vitality to the local economy. With the tension between China and the Philippines, the number of Chinese tourists has dropped sharply, which is undoubtedly a heavy blow to the Philippine tourism industry, which relies on Chinese tourists.
The impact of the decline in Chinese tourists on the Philippine tourism industry is all-encompassing. From hotels to restaurants, from travel agencies to tourist attractions, this cold snap is felt. Beaches that were once bustling are deserted, and what was once a hard-to-find tourist attraction is now in abundance. The decline in Chinese tourists has affected the direct income of the tourism industry and has had an impact on the related industrial chain.
epilogue
The country's economic diversification, new opportunities for regional cooperation, the balancing art of the U.S.-China relationship, and the development of long-term strategies are all key to the future development of the Philippines. Peace and cooperation are not only the key to resolving the South China Sea issue, but also an important driving force for regional economic development.
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