【SMM Metal Morning Ginseng】Metal rose Lunxi rose 4.16%| Global Macroeconomic Outlook | Recycled lead production was unexpectedly reduced
》[Lead and Zinc Summit Live Broadcast] Global Macroeconomic Outlook Opportunities and Challenges for the Lead and Zinc Industry under the Rise of New Energy
►After the United States and Europe imposed metal sanctions on Russia, the available inventory of the LME decreased significantly [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]
►Federal Reserve officials intensively hawk and delay interest rate cuts seem to be a certainty [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes]
►Overnight lead strengthened, Shanghai lead broke through 17,200 yuan/ton, the spot price spread widened, and the spot market trading was weak [SMM lead morning meeting minutes]
►Bearish sentiment is high, and London zinc pulls back strongly [SMM morning meeting minutes]
►Yesterday's spot market transactions were still sluggish, and the price of Shanghai tin continued to rise in the night market [SMM Tin Morning News]
►Pure nickel and stainless steel disk shock upward revision, ferronickel prices are stable and strong [SMM nickel morning meeting minutes]
►Lithium carbonate fell slightly, and the center of gravity of market transactions fell accordingly [SMM Cobalt Lithium Morning Meeting Minutes]
►Is the price of steel still rising?【SMM Steel Morning Meeting Minutes】
►Silicon wafer production was reduced in April, and the output of N-type cells continued to grow [SMM silicon-based photovoltaic morning meeting minutes]
In terms of the metal market:
Overnight, the domestic base metals were mostly red, Shanghai tin rose 3.35%, Shanghai copper rose 1.78%, Shanghai lead rose 1.29%, alumina and Shanghai nickel rose 0.23%, Shanghai aluminum and zinc fell 0.02% and 0.62% respectively. Shanghai copper, lead, and tin all reached a new high in the brushing stage, among which, the Shanghai tin brush has reached a new high of 268,620 yuan/ton since June 6, 2022.
LME metals closed up nearly across the board, only London zinc fell 0.85%, London tin rose 4.16%, London copper and nickel rose nearly 1.70%, London lead rose 1.30%, and London aluminum rose 0.89%. London copper and tin brushes reached a new high, of which Shanghai tin brushes reached a new high of 34,300 US dollars / ton since June 13, 2022.
The black series was mixed, stainless steel rose 1.24%, bifocal rose slightly, iron ore fell 1.14%, rebar and hot coil rose 0.16% and 0.10% respectively. Among them, stainless steel brushes have reached a new high of 14,340 yuan/ton since January 26, 2024.
Shanghai gold and silver fell 0.16% and 0.51% respectively. COMEX gold rose 0.25%, while COMEX gold and silver fell 0.28%.
The announcement issued by the Shanghai Exchange that starting from the trading on April 22, 2024 (that is, the evening trading on April 19), the transaction fee for the gold futures AU2406 contract will be adjusted to 30 yuan/lot. The transaction fee for gold futures AU2408 contract is adjusted to 6 yuan/lot. The trading fee for the silver futures AG2408 contract is adjusted to 0.3/10,000 of the transaction amount.
》Metals rose 4.16%, Shanghai copper rose 1.78%, and black was mixed
As of 06:59 on April 19, the market was divided
>> SMM metal spot price on April 18
Macroscopic
In terms of exchange rates:
Overnight, the dollar index rose 0.21%. A series of mixed U.S. data did little to shake the perception that the economy remains firmly on foot, suggesting that the FED may delay its first rate cut since 2020 until later this year. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Williams said that the strong state of the US economy means that there is no urgency to cut interest rates at this time.
The financial leaders of the United States, Japan and South Korea warned of a sharp decline in the yen and the won, which weighed on the dollar overnight and gave the yen a rare respite. But this effect has since dissipated. The yen edged up on Wednesday after Japan's finance minister, Mato Kanda, said G7 finance leaders reiterated their position that excessive exchange rate volatility is frowned upon. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday that the central bank could raise interest rates again if the yen's fall pushes domestic inflation sharply.
Domestic:
The State Council Information Office held a press conference today to introduce the development of industry and information technology in the first quarter of 2024. Shan Zhongde, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that industrial investment increased by 13.4% in the first quarter, the number of industrial enterprises above the designated size continued to increase, and the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rebounded to the boom range in March, reaching 50.8%. In the first quarter, the industrial added value of small and medium-sized enterprises above designated size increased by 7.4% year-on-year, and it can be said that the industrial economy empowered by multiple factors continued to improve.
Zhu Hexin, deputy governor of the central bank, said at a press conference of the State Council Information Office on April 18 that since the beginning of this year, a series of monetary policies made in the early stage are gradually playing a role. There is still room for monetary policy in the future, and the next step will be to closely observe the effect of the policy and the economic recovery and the realization of the target, and make good use of the reserve policy. >> Click here for details
In terms of data:
Pay attention to today's data such as Japan's core CPI annual rate in March, Germany's PPI monthly rate in March, and the seasonally adjusted retail sales monthly rate in the United Kingdom in March. In addition, pay attention to the 2025 FOMC voting committee, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participated in the Q&A session.
Crude oil:
Overnight, U.S. oil and cloth oil fell 0.30% and 0.45% respectively. Investors weighed mixed U.S. economic data, U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, and easing tensions in the Middle East. On the supply side, Venezuela, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), has lost a key license from the United States that allows it to export oil to global markets, which will hit the quantity and quality of its crude oil and fuel sales.
List of total inventories of LME base metal storage on April 18 (unit: ton)
List of LME base metal registration and cancellation of warehouse receipts on April 18 (unit: ton)
According to the unified deployment of the Party Central Committee on inspection work, as of April 17, the third round of inspection and stationing work of the 20th Central Committee has been completed. Fifteen inspection teams will carry out routine inspections of 34 economic work departments and financial units.
The State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration issued an article in the People's Daily saying that it resolutely achieves "long teeth and thorns", angular, and angular, and cracks the "loose and soft" financial supervision with a strict main tone. Strong supervision and strict supervision is the clear political requirement of the CPC Central Committee for financial supervision, and "long teeth with thorns" is an important yardstick to test strong supervision and strict supervision. It is necessary to strictly enforce the law, dare to show the sword, increase the intensity of inspection and administrative punishment, strengthen the linkage of supervision and examination, the connection of execution, and the integration of discipline and law, and rectify the chaos in the financial market with a zero-tolerance attitude, greatly increase the cost of violations of laws and regulations, and effectively enhance the deterrence and effectiveness of supervision.
As of Thursday, April 18, the copper inventory in the mainstream areas of SMM increased by 4,500 tons from Monday to 403,500 tons. SMM's copper inventory in the mainstream areas of the country was 405,200 tons last Thursday, and the copper inventory data of 405,200 tons refreshed its high since April 10, 2020. The Shanghai copper inventory continued to accumulate, and it also hit a new high in nearly four years in the week of April 12. >> Click here for details
[The central bank, the National Development and Reform Commission, etc. intensively voiced that Shanghai copper soared to nearly 79,000 yuan/ton, a new high in nearly 18 years] The strong sentiment of the macro market drove copper prices to rise again and again, and the intensive voices of the central bank and other departments drove copper prices at home and abroad to jump again and refresh the stage high. What other macro factors will affect the future trend of copper prices, such as China's one-year and five-year loan prime rates in April, the US GDP and core PCE price index in the first quarter, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. >> Click here for details
According to SMM data, from April 8 to 12, 1 #电解铜周均价为75842元/ton, up 3.98% month-on-month, the weekly average price of bright copper in East China Nonferrous Metals City was 68,890 yuan/ton, up 3.05% month-on-month, and the average weekly price of packaging cable was 69,090 yuan/ton, up 3.05% month-on-month. >> Click here for details
[After the revision, the national production capacity of prebaked anodes reached 29.735 million tons, and the overall operating rate in the first quarter was 79.18%] Recently, SMM revised the national prebaked anode output research enterprises, added some long-term production of prebaked anode enterprises, excluding some enterprises that have not started production of other products such as crucibles for a long time, and the revised sample contains a total of 101 prebaked anode enterprises, with a total production capacity of 29.735 million tons, of which 12.895 million tons of supporting capacity and 16.84 million tons of commercial capacity. >> Click here for details
On April 18, SMM counted the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots of 844,000 tons, and the domestic tradable electrolytic aluminum inventory of 718,000 tons, 10,000 tons compared with last Thursday, and 15,000 tons from this Monday, ranking at a low level in the same period in the past seven years, down 91,000 tons from the same period last year. >> Click here for details
[What is the impact of Biden's consideration of tripling tariffs on China's steel and aluminum products?] From January to February, the cumulative export volume of aluminum strip exported from the mainland to the United States increased by about 0.58% year-on-year, and the total export volume of aluminum strip from January to February increased by about 6.05% year-on-year. From January to February, the cumulative export volume of aluminum foil exported from the mainland to the United States increased by about 11.59% year-on-year, and the total export volume of aluminum foil from January to February increased by about 2.68% year-on-year. >> Click here for details
[The energy storage industry drives the rapid development of lead-carbon batteries, and the photovoltaic zinc-aluminum-magnesium coating is expected to boost zinc consumption in the future] China's photovoltaic market is the world's largest incremental market, and will continue to dominate the new and cumulative capacity in the future, the photovoltaic industry zinc-aluminum-magnesium coating consumer market is broad, and the zinc-aluminum-magnesium coating is widely used in the photovoltaic industry, the penetration rate is increasing rapidly, and it is expected to drive zinc consumption in the future; >> Click here for details
According to SMM research, the primary lead refinery in Henan is under maintenance, and at the same time, the recycled lead refinery in Anhui and other places has a passive production reduction due to insufficient waste supply, and the supply has been tightened in stages. >> Click here for details
[Stainless steel out of the bottom of the disk continued to stabilize and rise again] ferrochrome prices since April steel began to fall, but the overall retail price compared with February and March still rose to a certain extent, stainless steel disk and spot prices all the way up, profit margins continued to expand, the market news disturbance under the original weak upward momentum rose again, and the cost line moved and the macro favorable environment to provide support for prices, but the high backlog of warehouse receipts and steel mill profits driven by the increase in production, but also let the market maintain a more rational wait-and-see view on this round of rise. >> Click here for details
[Huawei's new machine launch is once again "far ahead" The global consumer market ushered in a warm recovery in the first quarter of 2024] The output of lithium cobalt oxide in the first quarter of 2024 was 18,100 tons, an increase of 42% year-on-year. The increase in the first quarter is larger, first, the inventory in the consumer market in the first quarter of 2023 is large, and manufacturers are basically destocking, and the decline in 2023 is nearly 40% compared with 2022. Therefore, the first quarter of 2024 is the increment reflected in the smooth transmission of terminal demand after the inventory is digested. >> Click here for details
This week, the price of DMC in the online mall of Shandong single enterprises fell, and the opening price of this week was 13,500 yuan/ton, and the price was lowered by 200 yuan/ton. This week, the DMC quotation of leading enterprises fell to 14,000 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton. >> Click here for details
[The United States may impose tariffs on imported bifacial photovoltaic modules] On April 17, it was reported that the Biden administration is expected to approve the resumption of tariffs imposed by the United States on bifacial photovoltaic modules imported from China and other countries. The application comes from South Korea's Hanwha Qcells module manufacturer. Bifacial modules were initially waived in June 2019 but revoked by the Trump administration in October 2020. >> Click here for details
[It is expected that the domestic silver production capacity will rise steadily in 2024, and the demand for photovoltaic silver will be about 5,366 tons] In 2023-2024, the silver production capacity will still show a steady and rising trend. In 2024, due to the market's expectation of a Fed interest rate cut, the price of silver is bullish, and the market is relatively optimistic about the price and demand for silver this year, and domestic smelters have begun to expand production slightly. >> Click here for details
►Copper inventories in mainstream areas of the country increased by 4,500 tons during the week
►The social inventory of zinc ingots in SMM seven places increased by 00,500 tons
►Steel mills resumed production slightly, and the inventory of building materials slowed down slightly
►The price of iron powder in eastern Liaoning may rise
►High-grade non-oriented silicon steel mills have a strong voice In the long run, the price center of gravity may show an upward trend
►The demand release is acceptable, and the degree of destocking of the hot roll social library is good
►This week, Boxing's hot coil inventory fell to 156,300 tons
►Production growth slowed down This week, the hot coil table needs to increase month-on-month
► Single-week bid capacity of 2.5GW The winning bid price shows signs of loosening
Shibor: Overnight at 1.7760%, up 5.30 basis points. The 7-day is at 1.8360%, up 2.00 basis points. The three-month report was 2.0410%, down 0.80 basis points.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on April 18, China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) output in March was 1.147 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, and the output of refined copper (electrolytic copper) from January to March was 3.362 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%. >> Click here for details
【Indonesian nickel ore supply may increase Asian supply tightness is expected to ease in Q2】The tight nickel ore supply situation in Asia may ease in April-June after the Indonesian government decided to speed up the approval process for mining quotas, as Indonesia's production is likely to increase. Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, experienced delays in mining approvals earlier this year, leading to tight supply and soaring prices. >> Click here for details
[Shenghe Resources Response: Solid-state batteries on lanthanum zirconium demand and the company's impact on the supply of rare earths in Myanmar] At present, the supply of lanthanum oxide in the market is sufficient, and the company is unable to accurately assess the impact of solid-state batteries on the company's product demand. As a responsible international supplier of key raw materials, it is our mission and pursuit to maintain the stability of the supply chain, and the company will continue to pay attention to the development of downstream related industries. >> Click here for details
The World Silver Association said that silver demand increased by 2% due to strong industrial consumption, but the total supply of silver fell by 1%, and the global silver supply gap is expected to widen by 17% to 215.3 million ounces this year. >> Click here for details
►Chilean President: Chile's Codelco copper production will increase in 2024
►Vale's copper mine shut down Strategists expect a severe shortage of refined copper supply
►"Demon Nickel Storm 2.0" is brewing?
►China Iron and Steel Association: In early April, the daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 2.1118 million tons, which decreased month-on-month and year-on-year
►World Gold Council: China's official gold reserves increase further Upstream physical gold demand declined slightly
►On April 18, the national carbon market price rose by 2.25%, and the total transaction of carbon emission allowances was 272,900 tons [Trading Daily]
Lithium-ion batteries are used in a variety of applications, from electric vehicles to portable electronics, but the maximum capacity of these batteries decreases over time. The longer they are used, the more charging cycles they go through, and the less power they are able to have. Lenovo has pointed out that many laptops have batteries that last up to five years before they run out of power, with about 300-500 charging cycles. >> Click here for details
[Tesla's target price has been slashed!Barclays: Next week's earnings report and conference call are "headwinds"] Next Tuesday (23rd) Eastern time, Tesla, which has been hit by a series of critical blows, will release its latest earnings report and hold what may be "the most widely anticipated conference call ever". And Barclays, an internationally renowned investment bank, does not expect any good news from this meeting. >> Click here for details
According to the statistical analysis of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to March 2024, the top 10 enterprises (groups) in automobile sales sold a total of 5.689 million units, accounting for 84.7% of the total automobile sales. Among the above ten companies, compared with the same period last year, the sales of SAIC Group, Guangzhou Automobile Group and BAIC Group decreased to varying degrees, and the sales of other enterprises increased to varying degrees, among which Chery Holding had the most significant growth rate. >> Click here for details
The Biden administration is expected to approve the resumption of tariffs imposed by the United States on bifacial PV modules imported from China and other countries. The application comes from South Korea's Hanwha Qcells module manufacturer. Bifacial modules were initially waived in June 2019 but revoked by the Trump administration in October 2020. >> Click here for details
Micron Technology, the largest memory chip maker in the United States, is expected to receive a $6 billion subsidy from the Department of Commerce to pay for local factory construction projects, as part of the U.S. effort to relocate semiconductor production back to China. >> Click here for details
►The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the 382nd batch of new car catalogs and 584 new energy vehicle models
►Passenger Association: From April 1 to 14, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the market reached 260,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 32%
►Musk is said to announce plans to build a factory in India next week, and plans to invest $2 billion to $3 billion in the country
►The IPO of the Xingu Micro Science and Technology Innovation Board failed to increase its performance but the gold content was insufficient, and the technical competitiveness may be "hard and flawed"
►Samsung and Micron launched a race for memory chips in the AI era, LPDDR5X new products exceeded 10Gbps