The situation is great!
On April 16, the domestic economic data for the first quarter was released, and the gross domestic product (GDP) reached 296299 billion yuan, a growth of 5.3% more than expected.
In particular, the secondary industry, which is dominated by manufacturing, grew by 6.0%, and the growth rate was significantly stronger, which was also indispensable to the contribution of new energy industries such as wind power.
In addition to Goldwind Technology, Mingyang Intelligent, Yunda Co., Ltd. and other machine manufacturers, upstream core components such as wind turbine spindles will also benefit from the new growth cycle.
In particular, the domestic wind turbine industry is in a dominant position in the global market, and the wind power demand in overseas European and American markets will also bring new opportunities to manufacturers.
So, what role does the spindle play in a fan?
From the perspective of the overall structure of the wind turbine, the blade hub, the main shaft, the gearbox, the generator, etc. constitute the transmission system of the wind turbine generator set, and the main shaft connects the blades and the generator behind the gearbox in the whole mechanism.
The spindle is responsible for transferring the energy from the wind turbine to the generator to generate electricity, just like our spine, so it is the core component of the wind turbine.
At present, the mainstream spindle production process is forging, which uses forging machinery to continuously forge metal raw materials, and finally completes the spindle products that meet the quality requirements.
In addition to forging, casting is a new trend in the production of wind power spindles, where liquid metal is cast into a casting mold, and the blank product can be obtained after the metal is cooled, and then the finished product can be obtained through machining.
In comparison, the forging spindle has better performance, but the casting spindle is more cost-advantageous, lighter, one-time molding, lower raw material cost, and shorter production time.
With the progress of casting technology, the casting spindle is gradually approaching the forging standard in terms of strength and hardness, and the market share of the casting spindle is expected to increase with the cost advantage of large-scale and lightweight fans.
Because the service life of the fan is more than 20 years, the spindle as the core component, once installed in place, it is difficult to replace and the cost is high, so the whole machine manufacturer has very strict requirements for the quality of the spindle.
From the perspective of the overall cost of wind turbines, the spindle does not account for a large proportion of the cost of wind turbines, which is at the level of 3-4%, but the quality requirements are very high.
So, what is the market size of the fan spindle?
In the decade from 2013 to 2022, the number of new wind power installations in the world every year is quite large, especially in the five years from 2018 to 2022.
Although the new installed capacity of wind power continues to grow, there is still a very big gap with the original installed capacity target, and there is still a lot of room for wind power development in the future.
As a key component of the wind turbine, the market demand of the spindle will also benefit from the growth of new installations.
From the perspective of the composition of the fan, the amount of forging spindle is about 6,000 tons/GW, and under the influence of the trend of large-scale fans, it is expected that the consumption of forging spindle will drop to 5,000 tons/GW.
However, the price of small megawatt spindle is 5-200,000 yuan, the price of 4-6MW spindle is about 300,000 yuan, and the price of 6-8MW spindle reaches 2.50-2.7 million yuan.
In terms of casting spindles, the current consumption remains at 0.3-04,000 tons/GW, and with the gradual increase in the market share of casting spindles, the market space will have the opportunity to grow to 170,000 tons in 2025.
Overall, the demand for forging and casting spindles will increase to 500,000 tons in 2025, and the market size will continue to increase with the development of the wind power market.
So, from the perspective of the wind power spindle market, what are the excellent representative companies in China?
The raw material of the spindle is basically only steel, and the direct material cost accounts for about 60%, and the fluctuation of steel prices has a very obvious impact on the gross profit margin of the spindle.
At present, the steel market price is at a relatively low level, which is about 60% of the high price in 2021 and about 70% of the high price in 2022.
The wind power spindle industry is special, and the production process of the spindle requires a relatively large amount of investment, and the manufacturer also needs to have experienced technical personnel, so it is difficult for potential competitors outside the industry to seize the market.
Under the trend of large-scale wind turbines, the degree of customization of large megawatt wind turbine spindles is relatively high, and the number of enterprises that have mastered the core technology of large megawatt spindles at home and abroad is not many, and the stickiness of downstream wind turbine manufacturers is very high.
At present, the industry has formed a market pattern of duopoly competition, and in 2022, the total market share of Jinlei Co., Ltd. and Tongyu Heavy Industry will reach 50%, both of which can supply wind power forging spindles and casting spindles.
After more than 10 years of hard work, Jinlei Co., Ltd. has become the world's first in the field of wind power spindles, with a market share of 31% in 2022.
The company's spindle products cover mainstream wind power models such as 1.5MW-8MW, and the spindle business is also the company's main source of revenue, accounting for more than 80% of revenue over the years.
Since 2020, the company has realized the independent production of upstream steel ingot raw materials, and the cost of raw materials that affects the fluctuation of the gross profit margin of the company's spindle has been effectively controlled, which has significantly improved the gross profit margin of the spindle.
At the same time, as the No.1 in the wind power spindle industry, the company's products also have higher bargaining power by virtue of strong stickiness with downstream customers, and the company's wind power spindle products can enjoy a certain premium, and the gross profit margin is 50% higher than the second place.
In terms of downstream machine customers, the company has established good strategic cooperative relations with leading domestic and foreign OEMs such as General Electric (GE), Siemens, Yunda Co., Ltd., Envision Energy, Electric Wind Power, Guodian United Power, Nordex, Vestas, Dongfang Electric, Goldwind Technology, Sany Renewable Energy, CRRC and other leading domestic and foreign OEMs, which is also a strong embodiment of the company's leading position in the market.
In terms of wind power spindle casting, the company's large-megawatt casting capacity has received small batch orders in the first half of 2023, and it is expected that the company's effective casting capacity will reach 180,000 tons by 2025.
With the gradual entry of production capacity into the market, it is expected to become the second growth curve of the company's performance and consolidate the company's top position in the field of wind power spindle.
From the perspective of the future development trend of spindles, under the influence of the rapid upgrade of large megawatt spindle products and the trend of "forging and casting", it is expected that small and medium-sized forging spindle enterprises will accelerate their withdrawal from the market, and the market share of the duopoly will further increase.
On the whole, the domestic wind turbine spindle industry is in an obvious dominant position in the global market, and the two key enterprises present a duopoly pattern, which is expected to benefit from the new development of global wind power in the future.
The above analysis does not constitute specific investment advice. The stock market is risky, and investors need to be cautious.
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Source: Flying Whale Investment Research