Israeli Defense Ministry spokesman Hagari said that Israel will respond to Iran in its own way at a time and place of its choosing. As soon as these remarks came out, the situation in the Middle East became tense again. Many people are beginning to worry that a new war in the Middle East will break out.
Previously, Iran had already taken as much de-escalation measures as possible in retaliation against Israel. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, for example, said that Iran had informed its neighbors about the retaliation 72 hours before it began. At the same time, Iran has also tried its best to reduce the charge and other measures to attack Israeli missiles, and the target selection has also been relatively restrained, mainly hitting military targets in Israel -- the Negev air base.
Map of the Middle East
Moreover, after the strike, Iran also made a specific explanation on the matter at the United Nations and other international diplomatic venues, saying that it was in retaliation for Israel's air raid on the Iranian embassy premises, that Iran does not want war, and that the strike can be regarded as over. It should be said that Iran's statement is still justified, and the relevant actions and rhetoric have also avoided escalating the conflict as much as possible, which is a strategically wise approach that can not only give Israel a certain warning, but also restore Iran's international reputation, and will not aggravate the regional situation.
Israel's statement
However, I never thought that Israel was a "dumbfounded" country, and not only did it not understand and tacitly cooperate with Iran's practice of "punching and giving a piece of sugar", but instead intensified its efforts and claimed that it would retaliate against Iran. This is really unreasonable, because it is clear that Israel first attacked the Iranian embassy by air, and killed seven Iranian personnel, including a commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, causing serious harm to Iran. It can be seen from this that Israel is a country that is useless to tell no amount of truth unless it can be painful.
The F35 stealth fighter of the Israeli Air Force
So can Israel's retaliation trigger a new round of war in the Middle East? First of all, a factor that cannot be bypassed is the geographical map of the Middle East, Israel and Iran are separated by Jordan and Iraq, and the nearest straight-line distance from Israel to Iran is 1020 kilometers, if it is to hit valuable military targets, such as targets near Tehran, Iran, then Israeli fighter jets need to continuously pass through Jordan, Iraq, Iranian airspace, and fly nearly 4000 kilometers back and forth.
Iran launched a missile attack on Israel
Even those fighters of the Israeli Air Force, such as the F-16, F-15, F-35, etc., do not have this range. In particular, Israel's most threatening stealth fighter, the F-35I fighter, has a maximum combat radius of only about 1,100 kilometers. If it wants to achieve a round-trip attack with Iran, Israel needs to dispatch large air tankers to patrol in Iraqi or Saudi airspace, and wait until the F-35I fighter jets fly to the rendezvous point, and then refuel them, and a refueling can extend the range by 70% and can support its round-trip strikes; however, the refueling operation needs to be completed over Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and other countries, and it is uncertain whether these countries will cooperate with Israel's actions at that time.
Israel does not share a border with Iran
In addition, Israel and Iran do not share borders, and if the conflict between the two countries escalates into a local war, then in the absence of US military support, Iran can rely on Lebanese Allah forces, Houthi forces, Syrian government forces, etc., to carry out strikes on Israel itself, and Hamas in Gaza will continue to resist Israeli forces; even Iran's own army can enter the Israeli border through the countries of the arc of resistance to fight. And Israel will not be able to conduct ground operations on Iranian soil if it does not have access to U.S. military bases around Iran.
Iran launched a missile attack on Israel
From this point of view, Iran does not want a large-scale local war that threatens Israel by proxy alone, and without the support of the United States, it will be difficult for Israel to launch a continuous ground offensive against Iran. As a result, the two countries can only launch missiles or air strikes at each other from the air, and the limited effect of such strikes is not particularly obvious. Therefore, for the time being, the contradictions between Iran and Israel will only continue to escalate the situation, and will not easily detonate a local war.