#精品长文创作季#
China's economic development has always been in the spotlight, and in the past few years, China's economic growth has been very rapid, and it is even expected to surpass the United States to become the world's largest economy.
The fundamental reason why China's economy has been able to develop so fast is because of China's huge natural resource reserves and favorable labor force.
However, it is worth noting that the birth rate of the mainland has been declining in the past two years, and last year it was surpassed by India to become the second most populous country in the world.
Judging from the current situation in the domestic society, if the "three mountains" are not removed, the total population of the mainland is likely to have negative growth, and it is also possible that it will be overtaken by the United States in 2056.
1. Housing prices
The first mountain is naturally the housing price that the people are very concerned about. If there is no fixed residence, how can we expect the people to go to better jobs and create a better life? However, the current prices of real estate commodities do make people feel prohibitive.
Looking back at history, we can find that the mainland's urban housing policy has gone through three main stages: before the reform and opening up, in fact, our country implemented a highly planned welfare housing distribution policy.
At this time, the people do not need to worry about the housing problem at all, as long as they find a fixed job, the members of the unit will solve the housing problem by the unit.
After the reform and opening up, the mainland's housing began to change in an all-round way in the direction of commercialization, which also vigorously promoted the development of the mainland's marketization.
It's just that at that time, the real estate market system had just begun to take shape, and the prices of related commodities were not too high, and it was not too difficult for the people to buy a house.
After entering the 21st century, the real estate market in the mainland has undergone tremendous changes, because the real estate production system has been very perfect, the population growth data has also reached a high level in a certain cycle, and the market has once again ushered in the demographic dividend.
As the so-called demand can control the market, it can also improve the level of the market.
The rapid growth of demand has further increased housing prices, coupled with the phenomenon of speculation and the chaotic expansion of real estate developers, the commodity prices in the real estate market seem to have begun to break away from the regulation of the policy and begin to grow unlimitedly.
Twenty years ago, the housing price level in the first-tier cities of the mainland only remained at the level of thousands of yuan per square meter, but now the price per square meter has risen to tens of thousands of yuan.
This means that in the past 20 years of development, the housing prices in some cities in the mainland have increased several times or even more than ten times.
Many families have to polish all their savings to buy a home, and even have to pay decades of mortgages, spending the rest of their lives and decades to spread the cost of buying a home.
In the past few years of development, the mainland's policies have tended to carry out macroeconomic regulation and control, with the intention of flattening housing prices and adjusting the supply structure of housing, promoting the fair distribution of social housing resources, and reducing the pressure of the people to buy houses.
However, it is worth noting that these policies are indeed very effective in curbing further increases in housing prices, but they cannot immediately reduce the sales price of existing homes.
Of course, this is also a normal situation, after all, the real estate market is associated with other market industries, such as the sales industry, the decoration industry and the building materials industry may be affected by changes in the real estate market.
If housing prices fall rapidly in a short period of time, then the market size of these industries will definitely shrink, and the number of unemployed people in society will increase sharply in a short period of time, which is not conducive to social stability and the overall economic development of our country.
What's more, some people bought their properties at a time when property prices remained high, and many of them didn't even pay off their loans.
If the policy is relied on to reduce the price of related goods in the real estate market at this time, it may cause dissatisfaction among these people, thereby inducing adverse social events.
Statistics from relevant real estate sales agencies show that the average price of new residential buildings in most cities is still at 16,000 yuan, and the average price of second-hand houses is basically similar, still remaining at about 15,000 yuan.
According to the current basic room structure, most of the small and medium-sized properties can reach about 90 square meters to 120 square meters, take the lowest 90 square meters to calculate, 16,000 yuan of basic house price, 90 square meters of real estate needs to cost 1.4 million yuan.
If you add the cost of decoration and furniture purchase on this basis, it will definitely exceed 1.6 million yuan.
For ordinary families, if they want to buy such a property to meet their living needs, they will definitely polish all their savings, and they will also be burdened with a heavy burden of housing prices.
In such a situation, their disposable income may only be able to support the most basic living expenses on weekdays, and it is impossible to allocate funds for the child if they want to have another child.
Therefore, even if our country has opened up the birth promotion policies related to the second and third children, there are still many couples who are unwilling to have children, not to mention that there are still many young people who are not willing to get married at all because of the high housing prices. If the pressure on real estate cannot be solved, then the fertility rate will naturally not be able to increase.
2. Educational expenses
The second mountain is naturally the cost of children's education. People want to have children, in fact, the cost is extremely high, and it is not much lower than housing prices.
According to the statistics of relevant institutions, from the time a child goes to kindergarten until he graduates from college, the family may spend hundreds of thousands of yuan on education for the child.
If children still have the desire to study abroad, then parents' spending on education will be further increased.
I have to say that this situation is also very helpless, when the child is in kindergarten, he needs to spend a high amount of education costs, but also pay attention to the cultivation of children's interests, and enroll children in a variety of interest classes.
In primary and secondary schools, in order to better improve children's academic performance, parents also have to enroll their children in tutoring classes. After graduating from high school and going to college, children do not need to worry too much about their academic performance, and there are many unnecessary expenses that can be waived as much as possible.
But even so, the cost of tuition and books, plus the child's daily living expenses, will cost at least tens of thousands of yuan for the child every year.
Some people will have doubts about this, thinking that it is not necessary to enroll children in tutoring classes and interest classes when they are young, and parents can completely save this part of the cost and define the expenditure of other education expenses according to the child's independent choice, but this concept may not be applicable in reality.
You must know that although the new population data of our country is declining, the total population is still at a high level.
On the social side, there are many popular industrial markets that are already oversaturated, which also means that those children will face fierce social competition when they grow up.
If a child does not have the means to achieve better academic results, or even to take care of other interests, then his future will face many pressures that cannot be relieved.
In order to avoid such a situation, parents naturally have to pay for their children's education as much as possible, and many expenses are impossible to reduce in the eyes of parents.
What's more, even if you don't enroll your child in tutoring classes and interest classes, the corresponding places will not necessarily be much less, you must know that due to the capital expansion and unlimited development of the education industry, the basic cost of many educational institutions is already very high.
In such a situation, it is very difficult for parents to ensure the basic education expenses of their children.
3. Medical expenditures
The last big mountain is the pressure of health care spending. It is normal to have a small illness and pain in life, and when you are older, you may also suffer from various chronic diseases due to the decline of physical functions.
However, today's domestic medical expenses are still high, and many hospitals will even expand and render the patient's situation in order to improve the revenue data, and carry out excessive examinations and excessive medication on patients.
Such a medical chaos has greatly increased the expenses of the people. In addition, the price of drugs is also rising, and it is necessary to spend more money to buy drugs with stronger efficacy and better quality.
Even if our country has a very good medical insurance policy, the medical insurance also has a fixed reimbursement scope and reimbursement conditions.
Medical insurance can save people some money, but they still have to bear a lot of costs. For the sake of their own lives, many people naturally want to save a certain amount of money in their daily life, and in order to cope with various diseases that they may suffer, their disposable money will be limited.
If you want to have a child in such a situation, it is already very difficult to support the child's daily living needs, and it is impossible to have more children.
brief summary
As far as the current situation is concerned, China's fertility rate is constantly decreasing, and the total population may even have negative growth in the future.
If this situation continues, then in 2056, the total population of the mainland may be surpassed by that of the United States. As for the reasons behind it, there are three mountains in front of the people, namely the housing price of education and the cost of medical care.
If these three mountains are not addressed, there will be no fundamental change in China's demographic situation. To this end, our country should carry out macroeconomic regulation and control as much as possible to ensure the fair distribution of real estate resources, and should also provide more financial subsidies in medical care and education to solve the difficulties of the people.
Only by solving these three mountains can the masses of the people have more disposable funds and restore their basic will to have children.
Resources:
1. Ping said that Zhang Ping of Finance and Economics
https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1777916063824165546&wfr=spider&for=pc
2. Wu Wansan Business
https://www.baidu.com/link?url=u7MMf0HkiN_Aa2MNuS2ZJ_uk2I8loPBIwn-HICyBVG0kZZiGWgcPD81arGAuWWamoZBDro5edva7rcJyy0ou4Be5ngPFJDvyWZSQZmxayvG&wd=&eqid=a79530140012ad07000000036625b383