Recently, ASML announced its results for the first quarter of 2024.
According to the data, revenue in the first quarter was 5.3 billion euros, a year-on-year decline of 22% year-on-year, and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 27%. Net income was 1.2 billion euros, down 38% year-on-year and 40% sequentially.
From the sales volume of lithography machines, the sales volume of lithography machines in the first quarter was 70 units, including 66 new lithography machines and 4 old lithography machines, while a total of 124 lithography machines were sold in the previous quarter, including 113 new lithography machines and 11 old lithography machines, which is equivalent to 58 less lithography machines sold in this quarter.
Although ASML said that it expects net sales in 2024 to be basically the same as in 2023, judging from the data in the first quarter, it is only unsatisfactory and it is basically impossible to achieve revenue in 2023.
And the root cause of all this, in fact, is mainly one, that is, Chinese mainland reduces the import of ASML lithography machines, which will seriously affect ASML's performance.
According to the data, in 2023, China will already be ASML's largest customer, and China will contribute 29% of revenue, which is directly double the 14% in 2022.
If you look at the amount, in 2022, Chinese mainland contributed 2.16 billion euros (about 20 billion yuan) in revenue, and in 2023, this revenue increased by 200%, reaching 6.4 billion euros (about 50 billion) in revenue, three times that of 2022.
Why is China buying so many lithography machines in 2023? The reason is simple, that is, from January 1, 2024, ASML's advanced immersion lithography machines will not be sold.
Therefore, in 2023, when the ban has not yet been fully implemented, China will buy a large number of lithography machines from ASML, especially advanced immersion lithography machines, and stock them up first, so as not to be unable to buy them later.
According to ASML, in 2023, ASML has delivered all the lithography machine orders previously owed to Chinese customers.
So in 2024, we will naturally buy fewer lithography machines, after all, advanced immersion lithography machines cannot be sold, and they have been hoarded so much before, and in a short period of time, they are no longer so needed.
So it is reflected in ASML's financial report, revenue, profit, etc., all of which declined year-on-year and month-on-month.
According to ASML data, the amount of new orders is 3.6 billion euros, of which 656 million euros are from EUV, and the other 3 billion yuan comes from lithography machines such as DUV.
This data is obviously lower than the 3.8 billion euros in the first quarter of 2023, and it is far lower than the 9.2 billion euros in the fourth quarter of 2023, indicating that ASML's orders are also decreasing.
Regarding the impact of Chinese mainland's reduction in imports of lithography machines under the ban, how much will it affect ASML? ASML believes that the possible impact in 2024 is 10%-15%.
However, industry insiders believe that the impact is not only 15%, the impact on ASML may exceed 20%, after all, ASML is currently unable to export NXT:2000i and above immersion DUV equipment to Chinese mainland, and for some users, even NXT:1970i and NXT:1980i immersion DUV is not good, this impact is still quite large.