The reasons behind the crushing defeat of the ruling party in the South Korean parliamentary election and its future impact

Three years later, the presidential candidate was "emerging".

On April 11, 2024 local time, in Seoul, South Korea, South Korean Prime Minister Han Deok-so attended the State Council and spoke on the results of the parliamentary election. The Prime Minister of the Republic of Korea and a number of other senior government officials resigned at the same time. Source: People's Vision

In South Korea's 22nd National Assembly election on April 10, the ruling People's Power Party suffered a landslide defeat, winning only 90 of the 300 seats in the National Assembly, and 109 seats in addition to the seats won by its satellite party. The Democratic Party of Korea, the largest opposition party, won 161 seats and remained the largest party in the Diet. Together with the seats won by its satellite party, the Democratic Democratic Coalition Party (14 seats) and the Fatherland Renewal Party (12 seats), the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) has further consolidated and strengthened its political influence, forming a large opposition bloc against the Yoon Suk-yeol government, which will play an even more pivotal role in South Korea's political map in the future. On the contrary, the ruling people's forces and the government will continue to face an unfavorable situation in which the government is "small and large," and the various reform measures, personnel arrangements, and budgets adopted by the government are likely to be subject to more severe scrutiny and supervision.

1. The reasons for the crushing defeat of the ruling party

For the Yoon Suk-yeol government and the ruling party, which have been in power for nearly two years, this election has the meaning of a "mid-term assessment". Judging from the governance and specific performance of the Yoon Suk-yeol government and the ruling party in the past two years, the judgment attitude of the South Korean people, and the results of this election, the reasons for the ruling party's crushing defeat are mainly the following four aspects.

First, it has failed to carry out coordinated governance with the opposition parties. Since taking office, the Yoon Suk-yeol administration has not fulfilled its campaign promises to engage in dialogue, engagement, and coordinated governance with the opposition parties, but has instead adopted "high-pressure policies" such as suppression and exclusion, which has further exacerbated the antagonism between the conservative and progressive camps, which is already deeply divided. This practice has also led to a further fragmentation of public opinion in South Korea, and the logic of hating politics, smearing and scandalizing competitors, and black-and-white logic has quietly spread in South Korea, seriously affecting South Korea's political and social ecology.

Second, there is no achievement in domestic governance. In the two years since the Yoon Suk-yeol government took office, it has not achieved any outstanding results in national governance. Although reform measures have been proposed in employment, pensions, education, etc., they have not yet achieved results. In the past two years, South Korea's economy and people's livelihood have not improved, and the people have to bear various economic pressures and the increase in the cost of living brought about by the three highs (high inflation, high prices, and high exchange rate). On March 18, President Yoon Suk-yeol inspected a supermarket and placed his hand on the shelves displaying green onions, saying that the price tag of 875 won (US$0.51) per bunch was "reasonable."

The third is a government that is "arbitrary" and "unable to communicate". Since the Yoon Suk-yeol administration took office, it has not humbly listened to and actively considered the demands of professionals, teams, civic groups and the general public in related fields, but has largely adopted the method of "forcible pushing", which has aroused the dissatisfaction of many people in the industry. Taking the expansion of medical students as an example, the government has forcibly promoted medical reform in the form of rigid and high-pressure administrative orders without sufficient communication and scientific evaluation with the medical community, resulting in increasingly loud opposition from the medical community and increasingly intensified and serious contradictions between medical and political authorities. The impact of the election loss, the wave of resignations of doctors and the wave of strikes cannot be underestimated.

Fourth, the impact of "negative events" continues to ferment. Among the many "negative incidents", the president's wife was suspected of stock price manipulation and the acceptance of brand-name bags, which had a continuous negative impact on the election. In January of this year, South Korea's parliament voted and proposed a "special inspection bill" against President Yoon Suk-yeol's wife on suspicion of stock price manipulation, but President Yoon Suk-yeol exercised his veto power despite the majority of the public's call for the "special inspection bill" to be initiated. This move has aroused great dissatisfaction among the public, who believe that the president's move is a "collapse of fairness and justice" in South Korean society. This "negative incident" continues to ferment and has been "hyped" by the opposition parties, which has had an impact on voters' voting tendencies and willingness to a certain extent.

2. The impact on the political situation and the direction of domestic and foreign affairs in South Korea

The ruling party suffered a crushing defeat in the current parliamentary election because of the nature of a "mid-term evaluation" of the Yoon Suk-yeol government, which is undoubtedly a heavy blow to the Yoon Suk-yeol government. The overwhelming victory of the opposition parties will have a direct and important impact on the future political situation of South Korea and the direction of the government's domestic and foreign policies. Specifically, it is manifested in the following four aspects:

First, the ruling party must continue to face a situation in which "the government is small and the field is big." With the opposition parties led by the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) and its satellite Orthodox Party and proportional representatives winning more than 180 seats, its position, influence, and voice in the Diet have been further consolidated and strengthened. As a result, they will have more powerful power and confidence than the previous Congress in terms of legislative norms, financial budgets, major personnel arrangements, financial review, and state political supervision and investigation, while the ruling party and government have basically lost the dominant power of the Congress, and will always be in a weak state of "lame duck" in the political game in the future.

Second, the game and struggle between the ruling party and the opposition party will become more intense. Judging from the history, process, and characteristics of the development of party politics in South Korea, neither the political parties representing the conservative camp nor the progressive camp will completely submit to each other because of one or two election defeats. On the contrary, they will learn from the painful experience and carry out major changes or adjustments within the party to prepare for the next election. Although the ruling party, which represents the conservative camp, lost the election, its basic position in the Diet has not fundamentally changed, so it will continue to fight against the opposition parties representing the progressive camp in the political game in the future. As a result, the struggle between the progressive parties and the conservative parties in South Korea will enter a new round of the game stage.

Third, the government's domestic and foreign policies may be constrained and constrained to a certain extent. Since the Yoon Suk-yeol administration took office, it has forcibly adopted some policy measures in accordance with its own wishes and plans in domestic and foreign affairs, regardless of the opposition of the opposition parties and the people in the country. For example, medical reform, comfort women, Japan's nuclear sewage discharge, etc. The defeat in this election is actually the result of public dissatisfaction with its approach. Against the backdrop of such public opinion and the "small and big government", the direction of its next administration and specific policy measures may be affected and constrained to a certain extent.

Fourth, the presidential candidate three years later is "emerging." In this election, in addition to Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, Cho Kook, the leader of the Motherland Reform Party, has attracted much attention from South Korean political circles. The Fatherland Reform Party, led by him, has not only won 12 seats, but is also expected to become the third largest party in the new Diet after the Democratic Party of Korea and the National Power Party, and its influence in the Diet should not be underestimated. Some commentators believe that Lee Jae-myung and Cho Kook are expected to be strong candidates for the 2027 South Korean presidential election. Judging from the current reaction and attitude of South Korean politicians and people, it is not yet possible to determine who will eventually become the next presidential candidate. However, both the ruling and opposition parties will consider and prepare for the next presidential election as an important item in their next political activities.

The quadrennial parliamentary elections have finally come to an end. President Yoon Suk-yeol also responded to the election results, saying, "We will sincerely accept the will of the people and carry out national policy reforms to do our best to stabilize the economy and people's livelihood." "What kind of national policy reforms the Yoon Suk-yeol government will make in the next period of time will undoubtedly become the focus of attention of the entire South Korean society and people.