The article is original, unauthorized, please do not reprint, offenders will be investigated!
In April, in terms of domestic pigs and grain, in the grain market, recently, corn and wheat fell "more miserably", and the market showed a sharp downward trend, however, with the gradual decline in prices, market sentiment has changed, food prices have "changed the sky", and the market has bottomed out. In terms of live pigs, pig prices continued to fall in a narrow range, the price center of gravity fell below 15 yuan / kg, the market performance was poor, and the trend of strong supply and weak demand in stages was more obvious!
So, what's happening in the market?
First, the price of grain has "changed the sky", and corn and wheat have the tendency to build a bottom!
However, in the North China market, the price of corn has not stopped, and there has been an obvious price inversion in many places, and corn in North China has entered the "low-price area"!
At present, due to the abundant surplus grain at the grassroots level, the inventory of feed and enterprise grain depots remains high, some deep processing enterprises have been shut down for maintenance, and the demand for corn procurement has weakened, while the operating rate of feed enterprises is low, the supply of alternative grain sources is sufficient, the consumption level of corn is deviated, and the price is mainly weak! However, with the northeast region, the increase in grain reserves continues, the pressure on corn supply is reduced, the flow of grain sources in the market is gradually reduced, the arrival of corn in the northern port is reduced, and the price of corn in the port is relatively stable!
In the domestic mainstream production and marketing market, in the northeast region, Heijiliao and Inner Mongolia grain sales progress exceeded 9 percent, the market surplus grain was further reduced, the purchase and sale of tide grain gradually ended, the purchase and sale of high-quality dry grain started one after another, traders were subject to the cost of warehousing, the mentality of reluctance to sell was strong, the demand of enterprises followed up in general, the spot corn support still existed, and the price was mainly weak and stable!
In North China and the Huanghuai market, corn grain sales as a whole exceed 8 percent, Shandong and Henan grain sales exceed 8 percent, Hebei grain sales exceed 9 percent, grassroots surplus grain gradually decreased, corn purchase and sales rhythm has also slowed down, traders' inventory is high, further replenishment of the demand is not good, with the harvest and down, the amount of enterprises in front of the door by the grassroots grain sales rhythm slowed down, the supply level gradually decreased, however, the factory inventory is relatively high, the enterprise price adjustment mentality is average!
Among them, in Shandong, the listed prices of deep processing enterprises fluctuated steadily, among them, Zhucheng Yuanfa and Zhucheng Xingmao rose 0.5~0.8 points, and the execution price was 1.172 yuan/jin; Zouping Liuhe, Boxing Xiangchi Jianyuan, Yucheng Baolingbao and Dongping Xiangrui fell 0.3~0.5 points, and the mainstream corn price in Shandong was 1.135~1.255 yuan/jin!
Personally, I believe that with the slowdown in the pace of grassroots grain sales in North China, the gradual reduction of surplus grain in the market, the risk of corn selling pressure is reduced, superimposed, the local grain storage is gradually realized, the corn market or will enter the stage of bottoming, however, due to the general demand follow-up, some enterprises have stopped work for maintenance, and the summer grain wheat harvest is imminent, the market is still under pressure to vacate the warehouse, it is expected that the corn rise support is weak, and the market still needs to exchange space for time!
In terms of wheat, recently, the wheat market has not stopped, the price center of gravity continues to fall, in some areas, the listed price of wheat fell to about 1.31 yuan / catty, however, in recent days, the decline in wheat prices has gradually slowed down, the market sideways performance has gradually emerged, and wheat still has the opportunity to stop falling and pick up!
First, the pace of policy-based wheat rotation has slowed down, the surplus grain at the grassroots level has bottomed out, the channel inventory has been gradually depleted, the level of wheat circulation has gradually decreased, and the grain source in front of the enterprise has decreased, and the pressure on wheat supply has weakened.
Second, the inventory level of raw grain in milling enterprises is low, new grain is on the market, milling enterprises still have the operation of matching old grain to improve gluten, and factories are expected to replenish the warehouse;
Third, near the end of the month, the May Day holiday is coming, the demand for flour replenishment in the downstream market before the holiday may increase, the sales volume of flour will gradually improve, the downstream orders of milling enterprises may increase, the operating rate is expected to increase, and the level of raw grain consumption will also improve!
However, due to the continuation of the policy wheat rotation, the new wheat is about to be listed, and the market still has a certain amount of inventory clearance operation, it is expected that the wheat market lacks a significant opportunity to rise, the market is mainly shocked, and the price of high-quality wheat may be relatively firm!
Judging from the market feedback, at present, the domestic winter wheat producing areas, the listed price of milling enterprises has generally stabilized, among them, in Shandong, the mainstream wheat price is 1.325~1.36 yuan/jin; the mainstream wheat listed price in the Hebei market is about 1.34~1.35 yuan/jin;Henan market, the wheat spot price hovers around 1.315~1.375 yuan/jin, among them, Anyang Yihai Kerry, Zhoukou Wudeli and Xinxiang Sifeng, the enterprise quotation fell 0.5~1 point/ In Anhui and Jiangsu, Anhui Zhengyu's quotation rose 0.5 points, the execution price was 1.365 yuan, and the wheat price in the mainstream area was 1.35~1.375 yuan/jin!
Second, the price of live pigs broke and fell!
In the pig market, after the Qingming holiday, the price of live pigs fell more than once, the price center of gravity slowly moved downward, at present, the price of three yuan pig at home and abroad fell below 15 yuan / kg, the market showed a downward trend, on April 18, the price of three yuan lean pig fell to 14.95 yuan / kg, down 0.05 yuan from yesterday!
In the domestic market, pig prices continued to fall for most of the trend, in the northern region, pig prices generally declined, in the southern market, only in South China and parts of East China, pig prices were mainly weak and stable, the mainstream market slaughter prices fell 0.05 ~ 0.15 yuan / kg, domestic pig prices generally hovered at 14.15 ~ 15.8 yuan / kg, East China and parts of South China, pig prices were relatively firm!
At present, the factors of the downward trend of pig prices, I personally believe that the poor ability to undertake consumption has inhibited the performance of pig prices and exacerbated the downward trend of pig prices!
It is understood that in the near future, by the temperature rise, the level of pork consumption follow-up has further deteriorated, the fat pig market is not smooth, the downstream traders are not able to undertake the capacity, the slaughterhouse has weakened the enthusiasm of purchasing fat pigs, the price of price is strong, the price of domestic fat pigs has gradually deteriorated, the price of pigs and pigs in many places is flat, and there has been a certain price inversion in some areas!
Affected by the standard fertilizer price difference, the breeding end of the phased slaughter rhythm accelerated, the market subscription mentality became stronger, at the same time, the domestic mainstream capital two education confidence weakened, the wait-and-see mentality became stronger, the circulation of pigs is smooth, the pressure on the purchase of pigs in the north and south is reduced, due to the narrow price difference between the slaughtering enterprises, the mentality of the slaughterhouse price is strong, under the pressure of long and short, the pig price is under pressure downward, in the short term, the market fundamentals are difficult to improve, and the price center of gravity may maintain the situation of shock and decline.
Although, at the end of the month, supported by the holiday factor, pig prices may be short-term or have a strong opportunity, but after the holiday, the follow-up of consumption will further deteriorate, the risk of fat pig pressure will intensify, pig prices may have the risk of further decline, and the price of large pigs in May may not be optimistic!
Grain prices have "changed the sky"! What changes have occurred in the markets of live pigs, corn, and wheat after the adjustment on April 18? What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, the picture comes from the Internet, and the content is for reference only!