In the middle of April, the pig market is facing the situation of "double killing" of purchase and sales, the market is mainly sideways, and it is expected that the decline in pig prices will continue, however, due to the slight support of the market, the decline is relatively limited, and the market is in the stage of "grinding the bottom"!
At present, the logic supporting the decline in pig prices is roughly as follows:
(1) The weather is getting hotter, the north and south regions, the demand for pork consumption is under pressure, the lack of good household consumption, the market substitution consumption is more common, in particular, the price level of poultry meat and eggs is high, the market has the performance of alternative consumption, the lack of obvious increase in catering and dine-in demand, and the pressure of consumption constraints is more obvious;
(2) The southern region has entered the rainy season, the risk of pig disease in pig farms has increased, the mentality of breeding end pressure fence has gradually loosened, and the mentality of falling bags for slaughter has become stronger;
(3) The rigid demand for fat pigs has deteriorated, the market's acceptance of fat white strips has declined, the upside-down phenomenon of standard fertilizer price difference has increased, the enthusiasm for weight gain at the breeding end has weakened, the social aspect and the group pig enterprises have been relatively positive, and the market price mentality has weakened;
(4), the second fattening stage weakened, the wait-and-see mentality became stronger, the second breeding high purchase of pig mentality decreased, the bottom of the pig price support weakened slightly!
Therefore, under the support of many bearish, domestic pig prices have shown a situation of continuous decline, and the price center of gravity has slowly moved downward, but there is still some good support in the market!
On the one hand, at present, the domestic feed cost is higher and lower, among them, the corn market has fallen sharply, the corn quotation in some parts of North China has fallen below 1.1 yuan / catty, the soybean meal market has rebounded slightly, however, the price is still at a low level in the same period, superimposed, the bran market is poor, some enterprises bran quotation is about 1400 yuan / ton, the price of domestic feed raw materials is lower, which will also ease the pressure on pig fattening, and some small and medium-sized pigs at the breeding end still have the sentiment of waiting to rise;
On the other hand, near the end of the month, the festive atmosphere is gradually getting stronger, the market for the festival consumption bullish confidence still exists, in some areas, there is a certain empty bar phenomenon in the farm, the second education still has the mentality of choosing the opportunity to enter, the market still has a certain support!
Therefore, under the interweaving of long and short, I personally believe that in the short term, pig prices are mainly weak and stable, and the price decline space is extremely limited.
Attached: On April 18, 2024, the national provinces and cities will summarize the quotation of live pigs!