Tesla is laying off a large number of employees, and global sales in the first quarter are even worse than expected. Although this benchmark enterprise in the field of new energy vehicles has fluctuated, the shipments and sales of domestic new energy vehicles in the first quarter are still rising strongly.
This shows that the competition in the new energy vehicle track is more intense, so that traditional fuel vehicles have been neglected by public opinion. The overall sales scale of oil vehicles still accounts for the majority, but it can lag behind new energy vehicles in the attention of public opinion.
Not to mention the research around the battery, there have been many breakthroughs in recent years, and the cruising range is generally more than 1000 kilometers, which will soon be realized.
Is there really not much time left for fuel vehicles? Is there a specific countdown behind this short time?
From 400Wh/kg to 600Wh/kg
During the National People's Congress and the National People's Congress held last month, Chen Jun, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, introduced the research results on new energy vehicle batteries on behalf of a battery research team led by himself.
The sample scale of the newly developed solid-state battery has reached 400Wh/kg, and it will not be a problem to technically exceed 600Wh/kg in the next two years.
This means that the general range anxiety of the public will be alleviated, and the general range of electric vehicles will reach more than 1,000 kilometers, the driving radius will be further expanded, and the gap with fuel vehicles will be further narrowed.
Especially for groups with urban travel needs, the average journey of more than 1,000 kilometers can basically meet the daily needs of cars.
As for the safety issues that the public is extremely concerned about, Chen Jun previously publicly stated that the newly developed battery has been greatly improved in three aspects.
In terms of safety, in the past, spontaneous combustion accidents caused by batteries in electric vehicles have largely restricted consumers' desire to buy electric vehicles. Once this phenomenon is effectively alleviated, security concerns will no longer be an issue.
In terms of adapting to low temperatures, the previous electric vehicle battery, in a low temperature environment, the phenomenon of power failure and easy nesting also plagued users from time to time. Chen Jun said that this issue will also be a major scientific and technological issue in future research.
The last aspect is fast charging, the fuel vehicle can be refueled at the gas station, and it can be done in a minute or two at the earliest. The fastest charging of electric vehicles is about 20 to 30 minutes. Once there are many cars, you have to wait in line.
In this regard, the team led by Chen Jun has made a breakthrough in new research, and in the future, when improving the performance of batteries, the improvement space around fast charging will continue to expand.
In the idea of developing a new solid-state battery, Chen Jun's team proposed a new battery system and its working principle.
The material has been innovated, and the density of the battery has been greatly increased compared to the previous density, which has also directly led to an increase in driving range.
The team has also developed a new electrolyte with a wider temperature range, which means it can adapt to different working environments. Even when working at a low temperature of minus 70°C, the capacity of the battery is still not affected.
In the field of solid-state batteries, all-solid-state batteries that do not contain liquid electrolyte at all are becoming the focus of R&D and attention in the industry.
Its safety is higher, and the cruising range also means stronger and farther, especially the adaptability of a wider temperature range, which means that it will be used in a wider range of applications in the future.
Although there are many benefits of all-solid-state batteries, industry insiders do not deny that the technical challenges are still very high, and there are still many things to be done in the next step, from interdisciplinary research and development, to the construction and improvement of processes and industrial chains.
Therefore, Chen Jun's previous introduction during the two sessions can be summarized as that battery technology has made a big breakthrough, but there is still a lot of room for improvement in the future.
Every technological advancement will be a compression and challenge to the market of fuel vehicles. In the sales market, the pace of expansion of new energy vehicles in recent years is also non-stop.
Aiming to achieve a market share of 45% in the next three years
According to statistics from the Automobile Association, the mainland's automobile production exceeded 30 million last year, of which the output of new energy vehicles was 9.587 million, and the sales volume was 9.495 million, and its market share has reached 31.6%.
Compared with the production and sales of fuel vehicles, there is still a lot of room for new energy vehicles to rise in the future, and industry insiders describe it as "accelerating running", and it is necessary to move towards the goal of annual sales exceeding 10 million in a short period of time.
The first quarter data shows that the production and sales scale of the top five domestic new energy vehicles is generally more than 50,000 units.
At this point, whether in terms of total volume or monthly sales, the scale has grown very quickly.
As of last year, the domestic market for new energy vehicles was 20.41 million. The scale of the first 10 million vehicles took 27 years to complete.
However, it only took 17 months to grow from 10 million to 20 million. Such an extraordinary growth rate is reshaping the domestic and even global automotive industry pattern.
In 2023, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles will account for two-thirds of the global new energy vehicle market pattern. The proportion is increasing, and the scale of production and marketing will naturally not be low.
Let's take a look at the production and sales volume in a single month, taking the data of June 2022 as an example, the output of new energy vehicles in that month was 563,000 units, and the sales volume was 569,000 units. It is precisely because of such a strong monthly growth rate that the overall market share will increase rapidly.
In January, the State Council released its opinions on promoting green and low-carbon development in key areas. According to the new plan, by 2027, the market share of new energy vehicles will strive to reach 45%. At that time, a large number of old fuel vehicles will be eliminated.
That is to say, in the next three years, new energy vehicles will gradually share the market with fuel vehicles. For fuel vehicles that are already on the market, the next few years will inevitably face the fate of being eliminated.
And for the fuel vehicles that are still in mass production, they don't seem to have much time left. Moreover, in 2019, specific plans have been issued around the delisting sequence of fuel vehicles.
The order in which fuel vehicles are delisted
In 2019, the oil control research project promoted by Continental put forward a specific order of priority for the delisting of fuel vehicle models.
According to the planning goals at that time, the first to withdraw from the market were fuel vehicles with a public nature. This type of car includes many fields such as public transportation, taxi, online car-hailing, light logistics vehicles, airports, sanitation, and official vehicles. The complete withdrawal of this type of fuel vehicle from the market will likely be completed around 2030.
The next step out of the market will be private cars. Specific to the city and region, there are certain differences in the exit timetable.
In first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, as well as some second-tier cities, fuel vehicles in the private car sector will be completely withdrawn from the market by 2030.
In other cities and regions, it will take another 10 years, that is, around 2040, to decommission fuel vehicles.
In terms of replacing fuel vehicles, from near and far, hybrid models to pure electric vehicles are gradually promoted.
With the improvement of technology, the proportion of hybrid vehicles replacing fuel vehicles will reach 25% to 35% in the next few years.
Then, with the improvement of pure electric vehicle technology and the reduction of cost, the proportion of this model will gradually replace hybrid vehicles. It is estimated that by 2050ni, the scale of pure electric vehicles in the private car field will reach more than eighty percent.
The last type of fuel vehicles to be withdrawn from the market is large passenger and freight vehicles. With the continuous improvement of battery technology, this type of fuel vehicle will also come to the end of its life by 2050.
To sum up, by the middle of this century, that is, around 2050, it will be the ultimate showdown between fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles.
If the above plan is carried out as scheduled, the mission of fuel vehicles will be completed.
Countdown to 25 years
In fact, it can be seen from the continuous rising pace of new energy vehicle sales that the withdrawal of fuel vehicles from the market is no longer just talking.
Many people are still psychologically resistant to new energy vehicles, believing that they have an empty body and no unique technology like the internal combustion engine.
In fact, this cannot be blamed on the public is not optimistic about new energy vehicles, after all, its key battery technology is still in the stage of tackling and breaking through.
But then again, it is impossible for any era to come and do everything 100% well, and then let the masses move forward. The progress of any technology and the times is in the gradual development from scratch and from bad to good.
Just like the train in history, when it first appeared, its steam locomotive was unsafe, and there were boiler explosions from time to time, but the train never stopped technological innovation, but sought technological breakthroughs while using it. Judging from the current development trend, new energy vehicles are also taking a similar path.
It is true that in areas such as battery technology and charging services, new energy vehicles still have a lot to be desired, but this trend cannot be changed.
Because from all aspects, promoting the transformation of fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles is a comprehensive national measure.
First of all, in terms of car purchases, new energy vehicle consumers will be able to enjoy the purchase tax reduction policy. According to information at the beginning of the year, this policy will be extended until the end of 2027. From this year to the next three years, the total amount of purchase tax reduction and exemption will reach 520 billion yuan.
Secondly, the National Development and Reform Commission previously proposed the "three accelerations" around the development of new energy vehicles. The replacement of public vehicles and new energy vehicles to the countryside should be accelerated, technological innovation and the intelligent level of electric vehicles should be accelerated, and the construction of high-quality charging infrastructure system should be accelerated.
From these system measures, it is not difficult to see that in many fields such as technology, consumption, and services, the construction of a new energy vehicle system will move forward in depth in the future.
In other words, all the measures are gradually compressing the market space of fuel vehicles. The scale of new energy vehicles continues to increase, and when battery technology makes further breakthroughs, the overall concept of car use in society will gradually change.
At that time, it is time for fuel vehicles to really leave.
epilogue
Promoting the popularization and transformation of new energy vehicles is essentially energy conservation and emission reduction and the change of energy structure.
The use of oil itself is not sustainable, and it cannot be directly converted into electricity use. However, power resources can be obtained through other channels, and the diversification of energy use will be a major development trend in the future.
In this context, whether it is technology or development concept, there is no longer room for improvement and maneuver of fuel vehicles.
Whether it will disappear completely in the future or remain in a niche way depends on the extent to which the use of electricity can be achieved in technology.
Although there are still variables, with the shift in the overall habits of the public in the next 20 years, fuel vehicles will eventually say goodbye to society.
Resources:
"Academician Chen Jun Talks About Battery Innovation: Breakthrough in the R&D of 600Wh/kg Solid-State Batteries in the Next Two Years" The Paper March 8, 2024
"New Energy Vehicles Bloom, Production and Sales Hit a New High" Xinhuanet, January 24, 2024
"China's Ban on Fuel Vehicles Timetable Released, Fuel Vehicles Should Be Fully Withdrawn in 2050" China Economic Net, May 22, 2019