After the bombing of the Iranian embassy, the world was watching to see how Iran would react, and after the Iranian attack on Israel, the world was watching to see how Israel would react.
According to reliable sources, on the night of Iran's attack on Israel, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu urgently convened a military cabinet meeting and decided to immediately launch a counterattack against Iran.
However, Israel's defense minister, war minister, foreign minister, and others have all said that they will respond to Iran's military action.
War Secretary Benny Gantz said that "Iran will be made to pay when and in the way we choose." ”
Foreign Minister Katz said, "In addition to a military response to the missile and drone launches, I will lead a diplomatic offensive against Iran." "I have sent letters to 32 countries and spoken to dozens of foreign ministers and leaders around the world calling for sanctions on Iran's missile program and the designation of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as an extremist organization."
Not to be outdone, Iran said that "if Iran is retaliated, it will respond in a few minutes" and will not hesitate to "raise the ante".
NATO, the European Union and other countries have said they will impose sanctions on Iran's oil exports, but they are also ostensibly warning Netanyahu not to retaliate against Iran to avoid escalating the situation. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Wang Yi held telephone calls with the Iranian president and foreign minister respectively, calling on both sides to maintain rationality and restraint and avoid a new round of confrontation that would bring disaster to the entire Middle East.
However, many analysts believe that the words of the United States, Britain, France, Germany, and other countries cannot be believed, and that things will not be settled just like that; this is not the style of Netanyahu and his right-wing government; since the Gaza conflict has been going on for several months, the United States, Britain, France, and Germany have all put pressure on Netanyahu to stop bombing civilians in Gaza.
Sources say Netanyahu has turned down phone calls from several foreign leaders in an attempt to dissuade him from retaliating against Iran.
The editor also believes that Israel will not just forget it, and will definitely retaliate against Iran, otherwise, how will he mix in the Middle East in the future!
So, when will Israel retaliate against Iran, and in what ways?
Before answering this question, it is necessary to understand the characteristics of wars in the Middle East – the territorial struggles that are interspersed with religious wars. Because the Middle East is the abyss of Islam, all countries and people are Muslims, while Israel is the only Jewish country and is a "foreign monk." Not to mention that it occupies a lot of territory in the Middle East and belongs to the pagan countries that are the target of everyone, and the ethnic and religious contradictions between the two sides have a long history and are deeply rooted.
Let's start by learning about the festivals of their respective religions. You'll know what it means later.
1. Juda, Islam, and Christian festivals
Islamic holidays
Feast of the Dawn: March 12 is the birthday of the Prophet Muhammad in Islam, March 12 for Sunnis, and March 17 for Shiites.
Eid al-Fitr: October 1 is a Muslim holiday that celebrates the end of Ramadan.
Eid al-Adha: December 10 is a holiday in honor of their prophet Abraham.
Jewish holidays
Yom Kippur: October 5 is the feast of the Atonement for Jews.
Feast of Tabernacles: October 10-17 commemorates the shacks that ancient Israelites lived in during their forty-year wandering in the wilderness after leaving Egypt.
Passover: April 16-22 commemorates the liberation of the Israelites from slavery by the Egyptians under Moses.
Feast of Weeks: June 5 was originally the day when the Israelites celebrated the opening of the sickle harvest, and it was called "Feast of Weeks" because it was in the seventh week after the Passover. This day is regarded as the day of the birth of Judaism.
Christian holidays
Easter: March 12 commemorates the resurrection of Jesus on the third day after his crucifixion.
April Fool's Day: April 1, originated from the 19th century Western folk festival, on this day, people are accustomed to deceive and play tricks on others in various ways.
Christmas: December 25 is the day of Christianity to commemorate the birth of Jesus.
2. Wars and special holidays in the Middle East
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict runs through the Israeli-Palestinian war, and the Israeli-Iranian conflict is only an extension of the Israeli-Palestinian war. Let's review the religious offensives of the Israeli-Arab war:
1. On April 7, 1967, the Syrian army stationed in the Golan Heights opened fire on Israeli settlements, which led to the outbreak of conflicts, and at 8:45 a.m. on June 5, the "July 7 Festival", Israel dispatched its air force to attack Egypt, and the third Middle East war broke out.
2. The Fourth Middle East War: In the Third Middle East War, Egypt and Syria lost large swaths of land, including the Sinai Peninsula and the Golan Heights. On October 6, 1973, the day after the "Yom Kippur", Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack on Israel in order to regain the lost territory, and Israel quickly returned fire, and the war lasted until October 26, so it is also known as the "Yom Kippur War".
3. The Fifth Middle East War: On June 6, 1982, the day after Yom Kippur, Israel dispatched more than 100,000 troops from the army, navy and air force to surround the western district of Beirut and launch a large-scale sweep against the Palestine Liberation Organization and the Lebanese army in its territory under the pretext that its ambassador to the United Kingdom was assassinated by the Palestine Liberation Organization.
4. On December 10, 2018, Eid al-Adha, Israeli soldiers entered Ramallah and wounded 27 Palestinians.
5. The Sixth Middle East War: In the early morning of October 7, 2023, the third day of the "Day of Atonement" and the 50th anniversary of the Fourth Middle East War, the Palestinian "Hamas" suddenly fired more than 5,000 rockets at Israel in the Gaza Strip, and Israel immediately declared war on Hamas, which has been fought until now, causing 33,800 deaths and more than 76,000 injuries.
6. On April 1, 2024, April Fool's Day, Israel suddenly fired several missiles at the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, killing seven Iranian people, including two senior military officers. On the evening of April 13, Iran launched an attack on Israel, which sparked a confrontation between Israel and Iran.
Why did both Israel and Afghanistan choose to attack on a particular holiday? There are two implications:
Level 1: Punishment of the enemy nation in the name of God;
Level 2: Attack on the holiday of the hostile country as an insult to the other side.
3. The timing of Israel's attack on Iran
There is a saying that "strike while the iron is hot". After a long time, the conflict will cool down, and then to attack Iran will be to infringe on the sovereign state, the nature will change, and the justification will become unreasonable, therefore, Israel's retaliation against Iran must be in the near future, and it is very likely that it will choose one of their festivals or Iran's festivals to attack as before, but the three major Islamic festivals are all after October, which is obviously not in line with the principle of "attacking in the short term", that is, it can only be their own Jewish festivals: Passover and Feast of Weeks.
1. "Passover" attack. Passover falls from 16 to 22 April, the most likely time period for an Israeli attack.
2. For the attack after the "Qiqi Festival", you may choose to attack on the first, second, third, and fourth days after the Qiqi Festival, that is, June 6, 7, 8, and 9, which is the day of the second choice. In order to avoid a two-front war, Israel may come to clean up Iran after it has completely eliminated Hamas. At present, the Rafah area is left in the Gaza Strip, and Israel is bound to enter it.
4. What are Israel's ways of retaliation?
There are two things that Israel fears most about Iran: Iran's nuclear weapons and Iran's Revolutionary Guards.
Although Iran has repeatedly stated that it is only using nuclear energy to generate electricity, not researching and building nuclear weapons, Israel and the Americans have never believed that they have enough reason to believe that Iran is developing an atomic bomb, so it has always been their goal to get Iran to abandon nuclear weapons.
Iran has more than 50,000 Revolutionary Guards, widely distributed throughout the Middle East, and they are not only combat troops, but also undertake the functions of intelligence gathering and national defense and security, which is equivalent to Iran's hidden arrows.
The first: air strikes
Israel is likely to retaliate with Iran in the same way, using drones and missiles to strike military targets, Revolutionary Guard Corps officers, and nuclear facilities inside Iran.
The second: assassination
Over the past decade or so, a number of Iran's top nuclear scientists have been killed by unexplained bombs, rumored to have been the work of Israel's Mossad. This time it is still not ruled out that Israel will carry out an assassination.
The third type: cyber attacks
Over the years, there have been a number of cyberattacks on gas stations, factories and nuclear facilities in Iran, among others, but such attacks have been negligible.
The post is proof, and it will be verified at that time.