Mrs. Watanabe and Aunt China are different

Pay attention to the official account, the compass of the west wind, to read the text "What is the endgame in ten years?"

I mentioned one word the other day, Mrs. Watanabe.

Someone asked me, what does this mean, is it a Chinese aunt?

Let's do some science.

We all learned when we were children that the cyclical nature of the commodity society is the example of pouring milk, there is too much production, the wages of workers are too small, they can't afford it, and they can only clear a number of enterprises.

This process is the Compo cycle, boom, recession, depression, upswing, every fifty or sixty years, one comes and goes.

Then then developed countries invented something called quantitative easing.

The earliest impression of this word in our country may come from the time in 09, when everyone in real estate also enjoyed the dividend.

Because you have to put water when people release it, otherwise other people's water will flow into your house and steal your assets, and you will cry and faint in the toilet.

Many people in China have not paid attention to Japan, because we have been staring at the United States for the past 20 years.

In fact, the quantitative easing of the Americans in 08 was invented by Japan in the early years. It was strengthened and perfected by the United States and promoted to the whole world.

In order to get out of the aftermath of the excessive correction in the 90s, Japan actually stimulated even more, even to the level of zero interest rates, negative interest rates.

So think about it, in those years, what would Japanese housewives think when they received their husbands' salaries?

No interest.

Although prices will not rise, money does not make money, and I will feel uncomfortable in the end.

So what will the Japanese housewives do? Will they run to buy and buy, as Abenomics hopes, and stimulate consumption?

No, it won't.

They would convert yen into dollars and deposit them in the United States.

Yes, the U.S. doesn't have high interest rates, the question is, can it be lower than Japan?

What happened when the vast majority of Japanese women did this?

The relative certainty of the trend of the dollar against the yen took place.

Japanese women sell yen to buy US dollars, so the US and Japanese foreign exchange markets have risen for a long time.

A win-win situation has happened, the Japanese woman has made a profit on the exchange rate, the dollar has risen against the yen, and she has also made a profit on the interest.

So what will they do?

They will simply take out loans, ask banks to borrow yen, use other people's yen to buy dollars, and deposit them in US banks, changing from arbitrage to leveraged arbitrage.

From not being willing to have no interest on your own money, to using other people's money to earn interest.

These Japanese women are called Mrs. Watanabe.

This is the part on the surface, and it is also the explanation of the word, but is this the complete Mrs. Watanabe?

Not.

Just like we wrote about Zhao Xing before. Zhao Xing, identity, position, scope of work, this is the part on the surface.

How did he become Zhao Xing, what did he have to go through, and what was valuable underneath.

It's the same with Mrs. Watanabe.

For a person to be Mrs. Watanabe, several conditions need to be met at the same time.

First:

Let's think about it, from a global perspective, is it a trend for interest rates to fall in developed countries other than the United States?

Trends, of course.

Then why didn't Mrs. Henry, Mrs. Baker?

Because falling interest and falling indefinitely are not the same word.

Zhang San's interest is 4 points, your interest is 2 points, how much is the difference? 2 points.

If you are borrowing, you need 3 pips, and the difference is only 1 pip.

Just 1 or 2 points, you exchange currency, exchange and exchange, do you want a fee? So what money do you still make?

Okay, if Zhang San's interest is still 4 points, your interest is negative, and your borrowing interest is 0.

Then you have a difference of a few pips, and you can borrow someone else's money for 4 pips.

Is this something doable?

Second:

Can you exchange money as you like, exchange what you want, how you want to exchange it, and there is no limit to the amount?

That depends on the regulations of each country.

If you can, then your exchange cost is the difference between the exchange in and out of the brand.

If not, I'm sorry, there are additional costs involved.

For example, according to the regulations, you can only exchange XXX amounts, and as a result, you want to exchange 2XXX amounts, and the extra XXX is not possible to complete the exchange at zero cost?

Third:

Without leverage, what is the point of this?

Actually, it just doesn't make sense.

We don't have to think about Japanese wives, let's think about our ordinary people.

If your family's deposit is 1 million, without leverage, you can toss as you want, toss 3 more points, what can you do?

With an extra 30,000 yuan a year, will you be able to go to Mars?

Just to earn an extra 30,000 yuan a year, is it worth worrying about so much?

Going out and begging for food is more than that.

So what is the biggest problem if you increase leverage, that is, use borrowed money to make money?

It's just in case.

What will happen to the Watanabe wives in the event that the yen rises sharply against the dollar in the process?

will collectively blow up the warehouse, and there will be no return.

If you increase leverage by 10 times, the market goes 10% in the opposite direction, and you have no money to add margin, then it will be liquidated.

So, what are the Watanabe ladies going to do?

At night, when the U.S. market opens, they have to look at the screen.

At this time, we suddenly realized why Japan and why Mrs. Watanabe.

Because they are full-time housewives, they would have to get up early to make breakfast and lunch boxes for their husbands, and they would have had a whole afternoon and evening, because their husbands had to go out to socialize in the evening, and they might not come home until 10 o'clock.

In other words, they can operate at night, go to bed in the morning and wake up in the afternoon.

Can you?

If you're not a full-time housewife, do you do it?

I am not talking about this, not to let anyone learn from Mrs. Watanabe, but to let you see that the formation of any ecology has a reason behind it.

There are reasons why this plant grows in the south, why that plant grows in the north, including going home today, why your mother cooks this dish for you and not that dish.

What's with?

Your mother went to the vegetable market today and only bought potatoes, so she can only roast shredded potatoes for you, and if she buys tomatoes and eggs, then she will give you scrambled eggs with tomatoes.

A chef is actually cooking with the ingredients at hand.

Back to us, it's the same.

You see Zhao Xing is like this, Mrs. Watanabe is like that, that's just the appearance, why did they grow like this, the reason behind this is the essence.

People are all with one nose and two eyes, and you say that Mrs. Watanabe is a woman, and I am also a woman, and this kind of analysis is worthless.

Have you analyzed the first, second, and third I talked about earlier?

So when we look at a person, we have to look at all the dots in him, not just one dot.

I'll give you an example, an example from recent years.

When Russia and Ukraine first started the war before, the ruble fell sharply, and everyone finished speaking, I am contrary to the opinion of almost all self-media, I say, the ruble Jedi counteroffensive.

Gold, the premium is very high, I told a hedging story, there is a piece of sugar on the ground, you can bet that the sugar will disappear, because the sugar will be moved by ants, if that piece of sugar can never be moved like a perpetual motion machine, then you are happier, you can earn this money for the rest of your life.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates, from last year's hype to this year, no matter how many self-media tell you, it will be lowered immediately, I have repeatedly said it, and waited, for reasons one, two, three, four, five.

There are many, many more, what real estate lids are going to be uncovered, what is the follow-up every step, what exchange rate is reached, and then what will happen, not to list, too many.

The examples I want to cite have a common characteristic, almost 99% of the self-media tell you that you want to go east, I tell you alone, you want to go west.

How can I be so sure?

You pay attention to my question, my question is why is it so certain?

You Balabala make one thing clear, what is this called? This is called talent.

You are sure, what is this called? This is called resources.

The little girl in "City in the City", why did she tell the boss so firmly that tomorrow the superior will come to check our company's accounts, and she will not prepare for the surprise tonight, and wait for the closure tomorrow.

What do you think she is so sure of? Is it talent?

This kind of determination is called resources.

Zhuge Liang is very talented, he understands Jingzhou very well, and he has spoken a lot, which reflects his profound knowledge and profound thoughts.

But I'm telling you, Zhuge Liang won't bet on talent, understand?

Zhuge Liang's father-in-law and Jingzhou Mu Liu Biao are brothers-in-law, and Cai Mao, the governor of Jingzhou Navy, is Zhuge Liang's brother-in-law.

When Zhuge Liang really bets, he will not confirm those analyses without going through a variety of complex networks.

Commonly known as analysis, it is all on paper, and what really makes a person make up his mind to make decisions is always the part under the paper.

Many of our readers have been bosses for many years and know what I'm talking about.

No matter how talented you are, no matter how confident you are, you will not swear to go back and work against everyone on the whole network.

Who gave you the confidence? Aren't you afraid of being slapped in the face once?

If you slap other people in the face when you go back, is this really a problem that can be solved just by talent?

Each of us, in fact, is a company.

Companies need different types of people, just as we need to have different types of things in ourselves, some are talent, some are hardworking, and some are resources.

Playing cards, 45678, pressed 34567, not a certain card works, but every card plays.

Let's assume that Liu Biao also has a relative named Zhu Bajie, who is very stupid. There is also a talent in Xiangyang City, who is very smart, called Monk Sha, but unfortunately, he is isolated.

One day, Liu Biao, Zhuge Liang, and Zhu Bajie chatted and whispered a lot.

Zhuge Liang can know, Zhu Bajie can know, what can he do? He can't do anything, because he can't understand anything at all, he has no analytical ability.

Monk Sha is a talent and very capable, but I'm sorry, you don't have information channels, do you dare to make decisions empty-to-air?

See? What is the essence of Zhuge Liang? It is Zhu Bajie + Monk Sha.

One card can't be played, two cards can be put together.

Do you want to be smart, diligent, down-to-earth, and really do ten years of things?

Of course.

Do you want to have high emotional intelligence, be able to do things, consider the needs of others, have a seller mentality, and do a good job in the relationship between colleagues, leaders, and customers?

Of course.

Do you want to respect human nature, respect interests, and let others trust, you are the one who can give the highest return on key information, so as to establish an intelligence network like Zhuge Liang?

Of course.

In order to make it understandable to most people, I had to take a lot of things to the extreme to simplify the model. The actual reality is a thousand times more complicated than this.

In reality, no matter what background resources you have, you can't find 100% reliable information, and no matter how sophisticated your analysis is, there are places you miss.

Therefore, the three of 456 alone are not enough, just like the part under the countertop is still divided into explicit and implicit.

It's called 45678, and every card counts.

That's why I said that this is called ecology, 45678 is essentially an ecology, Mrs. Watanabe is an ecology, and in the process of Abe's change of soil, an ecological niche was born that was filled by this group of women.

With this climate, with this kind of soil, this kind of tree grows.

So, to analyze the endgame in ten years, I am actually analyzing what is it, what is the climate, what kind of soil is it, and then I know what kind of tree I am going to grow.

Pay attention to the official account, the compass of the west wind, to read the text "What is the endgame in ten years?"