Diagram of the Iranian offensive. Source: The New York Times.
Text丨Huang Yushan
Editor丨Qi Fei
On the evening of April 12 local time, the fire pierced the night sky between southern Lebanon and northern Israel - Iranian-backed Lebanese Allah fired about 40 rockets into northern Israel, some of which were intercepted, others missed, or hit open areas in Lebanon.
On 12 April, Israeli air defense systems in the Iron Dome intercepted rockets fired from Lebanon.
This is just an early warning of an even bigger attack. In the middle of the night on April 13, the skyrocketing flames swept through the airspace of Jordan and Iraq, rekindling the Israeli sky. Iran fired 185 drones, 36 cruise missiles and 110 ballistic missiles across Israel — the first direct military attack on Israeli territory since 1979. At about the same time, Lebanese Allah fired dozens of rockets at Israeli military targets in the Syrian Golan, and Yemeni Houthis and Iraqi Shiite militia groups fired a barrage of suicide drones into Israel.
During the Iranian strike on Israel, an explosion occurred in the night sky of Jerusalem.
In response, Israel said that more than 99 percent of drones and missiles were intercepted, "thwarting" Iran's attacks. However, some Iranian missiles landed in Israel, causing minor damage to the Nevatim Airbase in southern Israel and seriously injuring a Bedouin girl in the Negev desert.
Nevatim airbase that was attacked.
The wreckage of a rocket booster caused serious injuries to a 7-year-old girl after Iran fired drones and missiles near Arad, Israel, Israeli authorities said.
At a time when the situation in Gaza has eased, Iran's actions have once again raised concerns about the escalation of the situation in the Middle East. Why did Iran launch this attack, and how will Israel react to Iran's attack? Does the contradiction between the two lead Israel into a multi-front war, thus dragging the Middle East into an "all-out war"?
A pre-publicized attack
In response to international condemnation of Iran, Iran's permanent mission to the United Nations said the strike was in response to an Israeli attack on the consular office of the Iranian embassy in Syria earlier in April, which resulted in the deaths of several military personnel.
Iran's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Amir Said Iravani, center, defends Iran's attack on April 14.
On April 1, Israeli F-35 fighter jets fired six missiles at the consular building of the Iranian Embassy in Syria from the direction of the Golan Heights. The attack killed 13 people, including Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, and his deputy.
Iranians attending the Al-Quds Day rally wore the masks of deceased senior commanders.
According to foreign media, Zahedi is one of the highest-ranking commanders of the Iranian military to be assassinated since Qassem Soleimani died in a US airstrike in Baghdad, Iraq, in 2020. The New York Times believes that the attack on the Iranian embassy is "one of the deadliest attacks in the years of shadow war between the two countries."
Previously, the contest between the two was relatively hidden, consisting mainly of Israel's assassinations of Iran's military leaders and nuclear scientists, and Iran's attacks against Israel through foreign proxies. However, with the outbreak of a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, tensions between Iran and Israel have intensified, and the conflict between the two sides has become more public.
After the attack on the embassy, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Ali Ali issued a televised statement, saying: "When they attack our embassy, it means they attack our land...... The Israeli authorities have made mistakes and they deserve to be punished and will be punished. On the same day, President Raisi stressed that Israel's actions would not go unanswered.
Eventually, Iran responded with airstrikes. For nearly two weeks, Iran's top brass has been deliberating on the means of retaliation. Against a precarious socio-economic backdrop, Iran needs to do everything it can to avoid triggering a full-scale war.
In an effort to contain uncontrollable consequences, Iran appears intent on thwarting the operation. Tom Fletcher, a British foreign policy adviser and former British ambassador to Lebanon, said in an interview with the BBC that Iran's unprecedented attack appeared to have been carefully planned — Iran not only considered Israel's powerful air defenses, but also relied on it to minimize casualties while maximizing its influence.
Before the April 12 Allah attack, the United States received intelligence warning Israel that Iran would launch retaliatory attacks in the next 24 to 48 hours, targeting "potentially Israeli territory" rather than Israeli interests elsewhere. The American press notes that Iran had reversely communicated with the United States before the attack, promising to "retaliate" on the basis of not causing actual harm. Iran's foreign minister, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, said he informed neighboring countries, including major U.S. allies, of the attack 72 hours in advance. Turkish, Jordanian and Iraqi officials confirmed that Iran did give notice days before the attack. However, a senior Biden administration official only admitted to contacting Iran through a Swiss intermediary and denied receiving 72 hours' notice of the attack.
As a pre-announced attack, its symbolism far outweighs the actual effect. It was also an operation that was doomed to fail – giving Israel and its allies ample time to prepare when Iran launched drones and missiles from its homeland, some 1,600 kilometers away. When the fireball whistled through the sky, the attack turned into a "fireworks display". "Iran's choice to respond directly rather than through Allah is positive, with the intention of demonstrating its capabilities and influence, but not necessarily escalating the war," Fletcher said. ”
In contrast to Israel's deterrence, Iran's move is intended to consolidate its domestic support. Since the outbreak of the current Israeli-Palestinian conflict last October, Iran's security services have continued to face public skepticism from Israel's assassinations of commanders, terrorist attacks in Kerman, and airstrikes on the Iranian embassy in Damascus. This direct attack on Israel has reawakened patriotic sentiments in the hearts of some people.
On April 14, thousands of Iranians took to the streets of Tehran to express their support for the attack. Pro-government demonstrators gathered in the Palestinian square, waving Iranian and Palestinian flags and chanting "Death to Israel" and "Death to America." A new graffiti appeared in the square with the words "The next slap will be louder". For several days, a huge banner had been hanging here, calling in Hebrew for Israelis to "take refuge."
Iranian demonstrators wave huge Iranian flags in Palestine Square.
On the same day, Iran's Permanent Mission to the United Nations issued a statement on social media saying that Iran's military action was a "legitimate" response to Israel's "aggression" against the Iranian embassy in Damascus, and that it could now be considered "over." At the same time, the statement stressed that it would respond more harshly to Israel's retaliation and warned the United States not to get involved in the dispute.
"We have decided to create a new equation – that from now on, the 'Zionist regime' (the term Iran uses to refer to Israel) attacks our interests, assets, important people and citizens anywhere and at any time, and we will retaliate against them," declared Hossein Salami, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Israel is carefully considering the form of a counterattack
"We stopped, we intercepted, and together we will win. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the current situation this way, responding, "We have established a clear principle: we will hurt whoever hurts us, and we will defend ourselves from any threat and use a calm, firm manner." ”
After Iran launched drones and missiles at Israel, the anti-missile system began to operate.
Benny Gantz, Israel's wartime cabinet member and opposition leader, also said Israel would form an international coalition and make Iran pay the price "at the right time" and "the right way."
Despite these statements, Israel still needs to carefully analyze the current situation in order to determine the form of a counterattack.
First, the U.S. position largely constrains Israel's strategic choices. Hisham Heeller, an associate researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), believes that Israel's counterattack depends largely on whether the United States will punish them for their misdeeds. Currently, about 68 percent of Israel's foreign weapons and at least $3 billion in annual military aid come from the United States. The United States not only provided intelligence to Israel before the attack, but also helped shoot down missiles bound for Israel along with Britain, Jordan and other countries during the attack.
In an April 14 conference call with Netanyahu, Biden reiterated that the United States would provide Israel with "indestructible" security guarantees, but also stated that the United States would not participate in or support any Israeli counterattack against Iran. Biden said Israel's excellent defense has proven its victory in this conflict and asked Netanyahu to exercise restraint and accept the status quo. Many scholars have mentioned that the United States does not want to be involved in a situation of full-scale and direct confrontation between Israel and Iran, nor does it want the current Palestinian-Israeli conflict to spill over to other regions – which means that it is not easy for Israel to directly attack Iran.
Secondly, the fight against the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) remains Israel's main objective at the moment. This is despite the fact that Israeli ground forces withdrew from Gaza after the deaths of seven staff members of the U.S. charity World Central Kitchen and approved a series of "immediate measures" to increase humanitarian aid into Gaza. However, the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza continue to be difficult, with no change in the positions of the parties and no progress in the negotiations. Hamas rejected the current proposal, insisting on a complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip and a complete end to the conflict – a unanimous rejection by the Israeli cabinet and security forces as a "ridiculous demand".
While Israel does have the ability to fight on multiple fronts given its military strength, it will not immediately extend the war to other fronts, such as Iran and Allah, if Gaza's goals are not accomplished.
Israeli officials said Israel's wartime cabinet meeting lasted several hours and ended on the evening of April 14, but it was undecided how to respond to the Iranian attack, according to CNN. The official said the wartime cabinet was determined to respond, but had not yet set the timing and scope of the attack. One of the main dilemmas facing the cabinet is determining how quickly Israel needs to respond. According to Israeli media reports, Israeli officials decided to continue meeting on 16 April to discuss counterattacks.
The Netanyahu government's forward-looking approach has been strongly condemned by the country's right. They believe that if Israel does not respond harshly, it will not be able to prevent another Iranian attack, which will seriously disrupt the lives of Israelis. "We have to respond...... So that rockets from Iran do not become the norm like rockets from Gaza. Israeli lawmaker Galit Distel-Atbaryan, a member of Likud, stressed in a televised address.
Some hard-liners even see the attack as a window of opportunity to track down Iran's nuclear facilities. The British Arabic-language newspaper Solidarity, citing an anonymous Western security official, predicted that Israel could launch strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, which Israel has been tracking and training pilots to strike at Iran's "sensitive sites." IAEA Director General Grossi also expressed concern about a possible Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.
At the same time, Israel may also resort to its usual tactics: cyberattacks, attacks on Iranian assets in third countries such as Syria, or assassination with drones. Thomas Juneau, a Middle East scholar at the University of Ottawa in Canada, predicted pessimistically: "Even if Israel does not retaliate now, the region will not fully return to its former state." The status quo has changed with the precedent of Iran's massive attack on Israel...... The level of tension and conflict will be even higher in the future. ”
Israel regains some "international support"?
The international community has expressed its concern about the escalation of the conflict. "The Middle East is at stake, and there is a real possibility that a devastating full-scale conflict will befall the local population. UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged all parties to exercise maximum restraint and warned that any armed retaliation would be contrary to international law. "Neither the Middle East nor the world can afford more wars. ”
On 14 April, the United Nations held an emergency meeting on Iran and Israel.
In the wake of the attacks, Iran quickly stepped up diplomatic engagement with its regional neighbors, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abdollahian speaking with his Saudi and Qatari counterparts on April 14. The Saudi Foreign Ministry said the call discussed the impact of developments in the region and the escalating crisis in the Gaza Strip. For his part, the Qatari foreign minister expressed his deep concern over regional developments and pledged to "support efforts to achieve stability at all levels."
Jordan seems to have shown sympathy for Israel. Jordanian Foreign Minister Safadi said Jordan had summoned the Iranian ambassador to protest the Iranian media's remarks, which were seen as interference in Jordan's internal affairs. Previously, Iranian state media had warned Jordan that it would be Iran's next target if it cooperated with Israel.
On the other hand, Israel seems to have regained the "international support" it lost in the Gaza war. In a speech, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi thanked the United States, Britain, France and other partners for their cooperation in protecting Israel from Iranian attacks, which he also called "Operation Iron Shield." "Operation Iron Shield is a testament to the power of our steel partnership. "Iran's attack has created new opportunities for cooperation in the Middle East." We are assessing the situation and maintaining the highest level of readiness. ”
Israel's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Gilad Erdan, shows Security Council members a video of an Iranian missile attack at the United Nations headquarters on April 14.
Although Western countries have provided unconditional support to Israel in defending itself against attacks, they have taken a cautious stance on the Israeli-Iranian conflict. Britain and France agreed on April 15 to reach a "united front" in an attempt to pressure Israel not to respond with escalation.
On the same day, French President Emmanuel Macron clarified the Israeli army's statement about "cooperation with France", saying that this was an act of self-defense by the French air base in Jordan: "At the request of Jordan, we carried out an interception based on strict protection and defense on Saturday (13th) night. On the same day, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron urged Israel not to escalate the situation further in an interview with British media. In a previous interview, he acknowledged that Iran has some right to respond to the attack on the consulate in Damascus. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told MPs that he would speak with Netanyahu in the coming days and said that while Britain supports Israel, he wants to see "a cool head prevail".
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed Iran's attack on Israel in separate phone calls with Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey, saying the U.S. "does not seek escalation" and will continue to support Israel's defenses, the State Department said. Iran has issued a warning to the United States through Arab countries that if the United States intervenes in the dispute between Israel and Iran, the US troops stationed in the Middle East will be hit.
In the face of the cautious attitude of Western countries, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said that "[Western] countries should not blame Iran, but themselves and respond to public opinion about Israel's inhumane tactics and war crimes in Gaza." ”
In reality, however, the attack seems to present new opportunities for Israel. Mohamad Elmasry, a professor of media studies at the Doha School of Graduate Studies, told Al Jazeera on April 14 that "the last 12 hours have been Netanyahu's victory...... We are not talking about aid coming into Gaza, we are not talking about the massacre in Gaza, and there is no talk of hostages in Israel. This is the effect that Netanyahu wants, and we see the sympathy of Western leaders turn to Israel again, and they once again embrace the Israeli narrative. ”