I originally thought that after the blockbuster data that exceeded expectations landed, it would inject momentum into the market to rebound, but unfortunately the market did not recognize the six relatives, and the more it fell, the more fierce it became, and investors were confused, what could they do to save the market?
Such a crazy smashing plate, is it really not through the wind and rain, no rainbow, many times, we are always repeatedly looking for a good medicine to comfort ourselves, and constantly paralyze ourselves. But when he came to his senses, he was already powerless to fight.
What is the market worried about, is it all the fault of the new "National Nine Articles", is this the crazy revenge after moving the milk cheese of the institution?
1. Just now, the Bureau of Statistics announced the GDP for the first quarter, which achieved 5.3% year-on-year, significantly exceeding expectations, which made a good start for the whole year to achieve the 5% growth target. Why is this kind of data not injecting momentum into the market to rebound, the appetite of the market has become incomprehensible, is there anything wrong with the data, let's interpret it carefully and see the truth behind the data"
In fact, there is no doubt that the data exceeds expectations, there is no need to pick bones in the egg, good data is only a necessary condition for the market to rise, not a sufficient necessary condition, the market can not rise and many factors, if the simple good data will definitely make the market rise, then the market has already been 4,000 points, our economic data has been in the forefront of the world's major economies, and the stock market of other countries has been going long bulls, going big bulls, and we have been in the bear market, super bear market messing around. Therefore, there is not much doubt that the data is good, and the market does not rise.
The market has not yet come out of some of the shocks brought about by the new "National Nine Articles", and the impact of the new "National Nine Articles" on the market will be greater in the short term, thus ignoring the impact of today's blockbuster data. Although the market has not reacted to the unexpected blockbuster data in the short term, it will definitely react in the medium and long term, and will only react to the unexpected economic data after the market has come out of the shadow of the new "National Nine Articles".
There are two other data worth paying attention to today: the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in March and the total amount of consumer goods in March were also released, which are as follows:
The forecast value of total consumer goods in March is 4.6%, but the announced value is only 3.1%, and the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size is forecast to increase by 6% in March, but the actual data is only 4.5%. This may be an important factor in the lack of strong market expectations.
The core data is less than expected, it can only be said that the data did not bring a lot of excitement to the market, but because some data is less than expected, it cannot be considered that the data has dragged down the performance of the market, and the decline of the market is blamed on some data that is less than expected. It is also believed that some data has found a reason for the decline of the broader market.
If some of the data are less than expected, then the previously released CPI and PPI data for March, as well as the import and export data for March, are all declining and less than expected, which in itself will have a negative impact on the market.
Short-term heavy momentum, long-term heavy quality. This pessimistic atmosphere has been formed in the short term, and the result of the market forming a game of long and short factors will eventually be reflected on the market. We still believe that the data will react to the GDP that exceeded expectations in the first quarter, and we cannot deny the data just because the short-term data has not injected rebound momentum into the broader market. This perception is one-sided.
2. The extreme market is getting more and more intense, the market is getting worse and worse, and more than 5,000 stocks are falling, why is it getting worse and worse?
From the opening, I saw that the yellow line representing the theme led the decline sharply, which basically laid the main tone of today, and it was another day of collapse. It's not much better.
Then observe the movement of the disk:
First, the morning foreign capital is still a small inflow, but can not stand the domestic capital of the large smash, and then strong, may be cut leeks, when the data is released, foreign capital can also begin to flow out, and the outflow amount gradually increases, as of the morning close, foreign capital outflow of 4.5 billion, domestic capital outflow of 35.6 billion, such a disk, even if a team of funds to save the field, can not hedge the net outflow of institutional funds of more than 40 billion in two hours, if the afternoon continues to outflow, then there is a good show.
Second, the intraday dollar index continued to rise, and the RMB exchange rate continued to depreciate sharply, breaking the 7.27 mark, at least there is a reason for foreign investors to short.
Third, only 283 stocks rose in the morning and 358 fell to the limit, like a small start-up market, and the CSI 2000 fell by more than 5%.
Fourth, as of the morning session, the market shrank by 38.4 billion, and now the shrinkage is more about the weight of the shrinkage, indicating that the willingness to protect the weight of the disk is reduced, and the theme is basically a large volume to kill the fall. In addition, the momentum of the theme is very strong, which is worse than yesterday, and some of the themes that were originally strong yesterday were also put into the team of killing and falling, so that even if there is some weight in the hard work, it is completely unable to stand up to the power of the theme of killing and falling. We have repeatedly emphasized that the premise of the market to stabilize must have a money-making effect, and who wants to play without a money-making effect. Retail investors are not interested in the market, most people are reluctant to cut meat, and institutions are becoming more and more fierce.
Fifth, small cap stocks have taken this point, and it may be necessary for heavyweights to make a statement and make a one-step interpretation of the previous policy. Otherwise, institutions will continue to sell, and the policy cannot restrict others from selling, and eventually push small-cap stocks to a dead end. Although I believe that this extreme trend will not last too long at home, the problem is that it will be a few days in a row, and it will be the year of the monkey to return to its original position, and the key is that some will never come back, after all, small-cap stocks have risen too much in recent years, and there is definitely some bad speculation, and someone will eventually need to pay for it.
Small-cap stocks fell again to create a liquidity crisis, and not many people were willing to buy. Can't you let a large number of retail investors cut small-cap stocks to chase large-cap stocks? The large-cap stocks themselves have also risen a lot, but what if you wait for you to go in and then kill and fall, just out of the tiger's mouth, and into the wolf's den. If you go on like this, you can only stop playing, and you can't hide if you can't afford to play.
Through the above analysis, the following changes must occur in the market to get out of the predicament:
First, small and micro cap stocks have to fall first, first from big to small, and then from small to stop, no longer indiscriminately killing innocents, no performance support, no dividend ability may be eliminated, but good companies can not be so bottom-bound. It is likely to be manipulated by some institutions with ulterior motives, or refinancing or quantitative funds are making waves.
Second, today's GDP exceeded expectations, but the problem is that the exchange rate is still depreciating, and it is impossible to hedge the negative impact of the decline in the exchange rate through economic growth. Stabilizing the exchange rate is a top priority, and only a large appreciation of the exchange rate will help to restore the confidence of institutional funds.
Third, this kind of irrational killing, if you want to rely on the market to find the bottom naturally, may have to fall in the short term, if the CSRC has a statement on the relevant at this time, it will have an immediate effect on restoring confidence.
Falling to this point, who would want to cut the meat after the big fall, is there a mistake on top of a mistake, but persistence is often under huge psychological pressure. In fact, no one has a good way at this time. If you cut it, it's all bloody chips, you don't cut your own flesh, and you don't have back pain when you stand and talk. At this time, we firmly believe that the irrational market is unsustainable, believe that things must return, at least after the rebound to decide whether to go or stay, of course, I am firmly optimistic about the market, the so-called is to stay is for individual stocks, my principle will never buy the performance of the individual stocks, because performance is the foundation of this market, if you are fundamentally wrong, many markets may be very passive, after all, there are not many garbage flying into the sky. For stocks with poor performance, don't have too many illusions, but when the market really rises, the main line of performance will definitely prevail and will definitely last, and now the direction of the policy has changed, and small and micro cap stocks, especially those with poor performance, will be in a very embarrassing situation in the future.
Wait for the market style to switch at any time, but you don't expect the short-term to be able to unwrap, it is more of a temporary reversal, and the operation is waiting to see what happens. Heavy traders can only go with the flow.