The institutional construction of the stock market must be like Dayu's water control, dredging but not blocking. If it is blocked but not sparse. It seems to be a big positive, but the short-term has evolved into a huge negative.
The new rules of the new "National Nine Articles" on the delisting of stocks that do not meet the dividend standards, shareholders all applauded, and finally some bad companies that have been mixed in the capital market for a long time have nowhere to hide. Although there will not be more than 1,000 companies ST, if the new standards are implemented to the letter, many companies will definitely be put on the crown of ST, and at the same time, many companies will be on the verge of delisting. This will increase the delisting of junk stocks. Wouldn't it be nice to get rid of some garbage companies and the garbage companies to be gone? This is a great thing, of course. But the problem is to speed up the liquidation of garbage companies, but it should not be paid for by the majority of investors. It's not the investor's fault. If a strict delisting mechanism is achieved without a perfect compensation mechanism. That investor will suffer on behalf of others, worried that the blood will not be returned, and the market will frantically sell small, micro, poor, and loss-making stocks, and sell in panic.
Today, the market has vividly interpreted the panic. Although Guo Jia's team used the four major banks to support the market, how could they resist the crazy smashing of more than 5,000 stocks, and more than 700 fell to the limit.
In the continuous plunge of the small cap of the venture market, the CSI 2000 and the venture 200, the quantitative fund is intimidated by the new trading regulations and stepped up the liquidation of small and micro cap stocks. Institutions have become the main force in smashing the market. Even if foreign capital returns in the afternoon, it will still be of no avail.
The market is back to the thrilling scene of early February, when it was called "irrational decline, panic shock, market failure". No one expected that after the introduction of the nine blockbuster policies of the new country, there would be a repeat of the decline. The new village chief made it clear that when there is an irrational decline in the market, he will intervene in time. I'm afraid that if I intervene again, it will also be a mantis arm as a car.
The past two days are probably the biggest crisis facing the market after the new village chief took office. Give the ambitious new village chief a new challenge, so that he can fully realize the danger of this market. Although strengthening supervision is the foundation of the market, it is a hard bone that must be gnawed. However, in formulating the system, we must take steps step by step, and we must not take too big a step. If you want to hurry, you can't reach it, otherwise it will cause incalculable losses to the market. But the plunge was like a timely rain, which cleared the minds of some fanatics. It also gives the new village chief a new understanding of the market, so as not to be carried away by the rebound since 2635 points, if the market goes too successfully, it is bound to create the idea of underestimating the enemy, and it will be difficult to do anything in the end.
The once-in-a-decade good news has given rise to two consecutive days of super bears, which is enough for us to see that there are still many unexpected problems in this market. The construction of the stock market system is a long-term and complex project. It is necessary not only to take a long-term view, but also to take into account the present, and complement each other in the short and medium term.
After over-optimism, the trend of the market has taught all investors a vivid educational lesson, and we have to reflect and think about five major questions:
First, the three-year dividend does not reach 30% of the average profit, and the new rules for delisting listed companies with less than 50 million on the main board and less than 30 million on the Growth Enterprise Market are too strict?
I haven't looked at the data to analyze the overall earnings of small and mid-cap stocks. But the first feeling is that with the current level of profitability of listed companies, many companies will tremble. The previous village chief issued more than 1,900 new shares, and more than 800 after the full registration system. Everyone knows how many unqualified companies there are, and this is all put in layers of checks, and now it is suddenly going to be increased. You can't say who asked you to speculate on those companies, then I have to ask, who let you put so many unqualified companies in. If these companies want to be delisted, they can only be cheated by investors, do they think they are unlucky? It is true that I am willing to gamble and lose, but the premise must be fair, and we cannot fake it, so that the problem company flows to the market, and there is fraud in itself. If there is no serious compensation mechanism, it will inevitably cause panic in the market, and if the market continues to leak, will the new regulations be amended?
Second, from the perspective of U.S. stocks, the long-term bull market is mainly supported by some large-cap heavyweight stocks.
In the A-share market, over the years, there have been some floating funds in small, micro, poor, loss-making, and virtual concept stocks. Most of the speculation is out of the fundamentals, out of the actual situation, belongs to nonsensical speculation, like last year's dragon and phoenix Chengxiang, Huazi generation, mahjong cards in the east and west, north and south, the stock price chicken dog ascended to heaven, investors are very happy, it is really ridiculous. Investors should put this on the speculative funds and institutions. We do not deny that small companies can grow into great companies, large companies start from small companies, and there are many companies with excellent performance in small companies. But at the same time, it cannot be denied that many malicious speculation behaviors just use stocks as a carrier to realize short-term opportunities to get rich.
Third, the nine articles advocate rational investment, value investment, and medium and long-term investment, which is the right direction.
The new delisting rules focus on improving the overall quality of existing listed companies, and through strict delisting standards, they are intended to accurately eliminate "shell zombies" and "black sheep", not "small-cap stocks". Although the change of the concept of the majority of investors requires a process, the heavy decline of the market and individual stocks shows that the original practice of following the speculation of small, small, poor, loss, and virtual funds cannot be continued, and vicious speculation will inevitably suffer a vicious plunge.
Fourth, the continuous sharp decline of small, micro, poor, loss, and other concept stocks, as well as the relevant new regulations, are also a strong deterrent to the more than 600 companies that are still queuing up to apply for listing.
A considerable number of companies should withdraw as soon as possible to avoid the doom of delisting after listing, which is also good for reducing the pressure of market expansion. As long as this market forms a situation where rats cross the street and everyone shouts and fights, some non-compliant companies will retreat and dare not cross the thunder pond by half a step.
Fifth, cash dividends are the most direct and effective way for listed companies to repay investors, in order to further guide conditional listed companies to actively pay dividends, improve the sustainability and stability of dividends, the Shenzhen and Shanghai Stock Exchange has revised the relevant rules on dividends.
According to the new dividend rules, companies that have the ability to pay dividends but do not pay dividends or pay less dividends all year round will be subject to other risk warnings (ST). First of all, ST does not mean delisting, and those who meet the conditions can also "take off their hats". The market is suspected of overreacting, and the market can only be pulled out when the market calms down.
Today, there were 746 stocks down and 2,535 stocks down more than 7%. There is no need to interpret the plate. Without strong policy intervention, it is difficult to stop the decline in the short term. Some people say that this is the new village chief taking the blame for his predecessor, but it is 200 million investors who are hurt.
The bell also needs to be tied to the bell person, who caused the two days of plummeting, if you can't introduce the relevant documents in time, clarify the relevant policies and some improvement plans, tomorrow is still unpredictable, irrational fall, completely emotional catharsis, and fundamentals, technical has nothing to do with the fundamentals, today's first quarter GDP data exceeded expectations did not play the slightest role.
Don't analyze short-term changes from the technical side and fundamentals, pretending to be pretentious, such an analysis is basically a liar.
It can only be said that the reversal will come at any time, but it is only for the wrong killing, and some companies with really bad performance, I am afraid that the rebound is also the time to leave, do not have illusions about garbage companies.