Recently, the overall shock of the wheat market is weak, the center of gravity of wheat prices of flour processing enterprises in the main domestic producing areas continues to move downward, the supply and demand pattern is still relatively loose, and the terminal consumption is sluggish, which is difficult to support the wheat price;
Wheat quotations were weakly downward
The new wheat is growing in good condition
Recently, the domestic milling enterprises wheat quotation reduction speed accelerated, in the supply and demand pattern unchanged, the demand support in the background, the mainstream wheat price has fallen to 1.315 ~ 1.38 yuan / catty, at the low level this year. According to market monitoring, as of April 14, the mainstream price of Pumai in the main producing areas of flour processing enterprises is: Shandong 1.325 ~ 1.38 yuan / jin, Hebei 1.34 ~ 1.37 yuan / jin, Henan 1.315 ~ 1.37 yuan / jin, Anhui 1.35 ~ 1.355 yuan / jin, Jiangsu 1.36 ~ 1.37 yuan / jin.
Less than two months before a large number of new wheat was put on the market, the wheat market was sluggish, and some grain-holding entities had been sold in several rounds of continuous declines, and there was little surplus grain left at the grassroots level. From another point of view, although the listing is approaching, it also means that the grain stock is further reduced, the wheat market is still subject to variables, and the views of market players on the market outlook are also divided.
At present, the new wheat harvest is expected to be strong. On April 11, the remote sensing growth monitoring of winter wheat showed that the proportion of first- and second-class seedlings in the main producing provinces was 95.1%, and the proportion of first-class seedlings in the five provinces of Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Anhui and Shaanxi was more than 60%, and the growth was good.
The two-way transaction of purchase and sale is active
The new wheat season is expected to decline again
At present, the number of policy wheat and the transaction situation affect the nerves of market players. On the one hand, the transaction situation reflects the market demand for grain, and the possibility of wheat price trend in the next stage is explored from the quantity and rhythm of the supply; on the other hand, the transaction price of new wheat purchase also reflects the expectation of market players on the price of new wheat to a certain extent. Obviously, the number of inputs has not yet decreased significantly, the transaction price has been lowered at a low level, and the wheat market may not improve in the short term.
On April 10, the two-way purchase and sale of China Grain Reserves in Beijing was 19,741 tons, and the transaction was 12,870 tons, with a turnover rate of 65%, and the sales transaction price was 2,670~2,700 yuan/ton, and the purchase transaction price was 2,650~2,680 yuan/ton.
On April 11, the two-way transaction of purchase and sale of China Grain Reserves in Shandong was 15,153 tons, with a turnover of 6,080 tons, with a turnover rate of 40%, and the sales transaction price in Qingdao was 2,700~2,705 yuan/ton, and the purchase transaction price was 2,660 yuan/ton. The two-way transaction of purchase and sale of grain storage in Henan was 77,446 tons, all of which were sold, the sales transaction price was 2,720 yuan/ton, and the purchase transaction price was 2,660~2,680 yuan/ton. The two-way transaction of purchase and sale of grain reserves in Anhui was 9,430 tons, with a turnover of 1,126 tons, and the turnover rate was 12%, while the sales transaction price in Bozhou was 2,740 yuan/ton, and the purchase transaction price was 2,660 yuan/ton.
On April 15, China Grain Storage Anhui Province purchased and sold 25,357 tons of wheat in both directions, and the sales price of wheat produced in 2019, 2020 and 2023 was 2640~2700 yuan/ton, and the listed price of new wheat procurement in 2024 was 2600~2620 yuan/ton, and the purchase floor price was further reduced.
Reserve rotation out of the transaction sluggish
Procurement promotes regional transactions
Recently, the rotation of wheat reserves in various places continues to be carried out, and the phenomenon of unsold auctions is still common, although the inventory of milling enterprises is at a low level, but the downstream consumption is sluggish, and the grain supply of old wheat is abundant, and the enthusiasm of manufacturers to continue to purchase a large number of wheat is not high, and they are still locked in orders and wait-and-see.
On April 10, China Grain Reserves Jiangsu sold 17,770 tons of first- and second-class wheat from 2019 to 2021, with a turnover of 5,335 tons, with a turnover rate of 30%, and the transaction price in Huai'an was 2,700 yuan/ton.
On April 12, Jiangsu Grain and Oil Commodity Trading Market and Southern Wheat Branch Center was entrusted by Yangzhong Local Grain Reserve Co., Ltd. to sell 5,214.852 tons of 2023 Yangzhong mixed wheat, with a transaction of 3,812.042 tons, with a floor price of 2,680 yuan/ton and a transaction price of 2,680 yuan/ton. Guangdong South China Grain Trading Center Co., Ltd. sold 7,301 tons of third-class white wheat produced in Jiangsu in 2022, all of which were sold, with a reserve price of 2,750 yuan/ton and a transaction price of 2,750~2,760 yuan/ton.
The purchase orders for replenishment in the southern sales area drove the regional wheat transaction, and the turnover rate of some wheat produced in 2023 increased significantly. Due to the varying degrees of decline in the quality of wheat harvested last year, coupled with the stricter requirements for the storage of reserve wheat, the wheat from the reserve rotation in the main producing areas has a relative advantage in terms of quality in the replenishment demand, which has greatly improved the turnover rate of wheat produced in 2023 in the current producing areas.
On April 11, Guangdong Yunfu Xinxing County Grain and Oil Purchase and Sales Company commissioned the purchase of 1,800 tons of white wheat produced in Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu, and Anhui in 2023, all of which were sold, with a reserve price of 3,220 yuan/ton and a transaction price of 2,960 yuan/ton, and the warehouse was stacked for delivery;
On April 12, Guangdong Chaozhou Hanxi Reserve Grain and Oil Co., Ltd. commissioned the purchase of 6,000 tons of wheat produced in Anhui, Jiangsu and Shandong in 2023, all of which were sold, with a reserve price of 3,100 yuan/ton and a transaction price of 2,935 yuan/ton.
The start-up of powder enterprises remained low
Consumption declined month-on-month
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in March, affected by factors such as the seasonal decline in consumer demand after the holiday and the overall sufficient market supply, the national CPI fell seasonally month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase declined.
In the first half of April, the operating rate of some small and medium-sized flour processing enterprises in the main producing areas continued to decline slightly, and the overall level was at the level of three to four percent. As of April 12, the ex-factory price of special powder in the main producing areas: 3420~3490 yuan/ton in North China, 3440~3640 yuan/ton in East China, and 3400~3420 yuan/ton in Huanghuai region, which was basically the same as last week's quotation.
Global wheat supplies have been revised upwards
Export spreads have narrowed recently
The USDA's April supply and demand report continued to raise global wheat production in 2023/2024 to 787.36 million tonnes, downgrading global wheat ending stocks to 258.27 million tonnes, with a wheat stocks-to-use ratio estimated at 25.5 percent, down slightly from 26.8 percent in 2022/2023.
International wheat prices were mixed with good prospects for global wheat production, fierce competition in the export market and the Black Sea conflict disrupting exports. In the week ended April 12, Chicago Board of Trade May soft red winter wheat futures closed at about $5.56/bushel, down 2% from a week ago, Kansas City Board of Trade May hard red winter wheat futures closed at about $5.8975/bushel, up 1.3%, and May hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange closed at about $6.4275/bushel, down 0.8%. As of April 11, the US soft red winter wheat US Gulf FOB was quoted at $223/mt, and the French wheat FOB was quoted at $217/mt. (This article was originally published in the A03 edition of the Grain and Oil Market News on April 16, 2024)
Source丨Grain and oil market newspaper
General Duty丨Liu Xinhuan Editor丨Congshen
