The National Grain and Oil Information Center released the "Monthly Report on Supply and Demand in the Oil and Oilseed Market" in April, predicting that the new supply of soybeans in the mainland in 2023/2024 will be 117.84 million tons, with its Chinese soybean output of 20.84 million tons and soybean imports of 97 million tons. It is estimated that the annual soybean oil consumption will be 98.9 million tons, an increase of 2.1 million tons or 2.2% year-on-year, including 2.5 million tons of domestic soybeans, and the edible and industrial consumption of soybeans is expected to be 16.8 million tons, an increase of 650,000 tons year-on-year, and the annual soybean supply and demand balance will be 1.24 million tons.
According to data from the China Feed Industry Association, the total output of industrial feed in the country from January to February 2024 was 44.37 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%. The proportion of soybean meal in compound feed and concentrated feed was 12.8%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, at the end of February 2024, there were 40.42 million sows that could reproduce, a decrease of 0.6% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year, still higher than the normal target of 39 million. The inventory of fertile sows maintained a downward trend, and the production capacity of pigs continued to decline. In March, the price of domestic pigs rose, and the profits of pig breeding continued to improve, of which the profits of purchased piglets have appeared, and the loss of self-breeding and self-raising narrowed.
The profit of pig breeding has improved, so that the enthusiasm of pig filling has increased, and the production capacity has slowed down; if the profit of pig breeding has further increased in the later stage, it may stimulate the pig production capacity to stop falling and turn up. It is expected that the domestic pig inventory will remain at a high level in 2024, and protein consumption will remain high. It is estimated that the feed consumption of protein meal in 2023/2024 will be 99.96 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2%. Among them, soybean meal consumption was 75.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%.
Since February, driven by tightening supply and strong demand for biodiesel, Malaysian palm oil prices have continued to rise, driving domestic oil prices higher. In the first quarter, the domestic soybean arrival volume was low, the imported soybean inventory continued to decline, limiting the increase in the operating rate of oil mills, the weekly crushing volume of oil mills in March remained at about 1.6 million tons, the output of soybean oil was not much, and the soybean palm price spread was at a low level, the soybean oil cost performance advantage was obvious, consumer demand increased, and the inventory continued to decline. It is estimated that the edible consumption of vegetable oil in the mainland in 2023/2024 will be 37.94 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, of which the edible consumption of soybean oil will be 16.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%. (This article was originally published in the A03 edition of the Grain and Oil Market News on April 13, 2024)
Source丨Grain and oil market newspaper
General Duty丨Liu Xinhuan Editor丨Congshen
