As summer approaches, the European Union is at a historic turning point, with a change in leadership that will not only affect the future of the continent, but will also have a profound impact on the global political and economic landscape. On 6 June, the EU will usher in a pivotal power shift, with three heavyweights – current European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi – at the centre of the race, each representing different policy orientations and national interests, reflecting the complex game of the three international powers: the United States, Germany, and France.
As the first female President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen has been driving the EU's comprehensive transformation in climate action, digital transformation and response to the health crisis since taking office in 2019. Her re-election campaign advocated stability and continuity, especially in response to the energy crisis and economic recovery triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and von der Leyen showed strong leadership in pushing for the "Green Deal" to accelerate the EU's transition to carbon neutrality, and advocating for greater solidarity within the EU and balanced development among member states through recovery funds. The support of the United States undoubtedly adds an important international endorsement to von der Leyen, reflecting the close transatlantic partnership between Europe and the United States and their shared vision of a global order.
Despite stepping down from the post of German chancellor, Angela Merkel's name is mentioned again, a testament to her far-reaching influence on the European and world stage. Merkel is seen as a symbol of European integration and stability, and her assumption of key positions in the EU could lead to a more robust and balanced diplomatic strategy, especially in its relations with Russia and its push for European defense autonomy. Merkel's potential return reflects Germany's strong desire to maintain its European centrality and the urgent need to seek a leader with deep diplomatic experience and extensive international connections at a time when multilateralism is challenged. However, Merkel's candidacy could also spark discussions about the transition between the old and the new, and the dynamism of innovation.
Mario Draghi, the former prime minister of Italy, was known as the "Super Mario" for his excellence in saving the euro during the financial crisis. Draghi's involvement not only reflects Italy's desire to occupy a more important position in EU decision-making, but also a high recognition of his crisis management ability. Draghi advocated a deeper European economic and monetary union, stronger fiscal discipline, and a development model that emphasizes both social justice and economic growth. France's support implies a recognition of Draghi's concept of economic governance, as well as a desire to jointly promote the EU's economic and financial reforms by strengthening Franco-Italian cooperation, so as to enhance the EU's global competitiveness and independence.
Behind this leadership struggle, the wrestling between the United States, Germany and France will have a profound impact on the future direction of the EU. The United States supports or prefers to maintain the stability of transatlantic relations and ensure the EU's status as a reliable partner in geopolitics; Germany's position is more focused on maintaining Europe's economic strength and internal cohesion; France, on the other hand, seeks to enhance its independent role in international affairs by strengthening the EU's strategic autonomy.
Ultimately, whichever candidate emerges from the crowd, the EU will face a series of daunting challenges: how to remain united and deal with the energy crisis in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict; how to accelerate the green transition without sacrificing economic growth; How to find a way forward together within the differences. This power shift is not only a contest of individuals, but also a redefinition of the EU's values, strategic positioning and global role. The decision on June 6 will open a new chapter in the history of the European Union, with implications that will extend far beyond the European continent to every corner of the globe.