Straight News: Regarding Iran's large-scale military attacks on targets in Israel, both Israel and Iran have declared "victory", Mr. Guan, what is your observation on this?
Guan Yao: I noticed that the British media "The Economist" compared Iran's large-scale retaliatory attack against Israel launched late Saturday night with the "deterrence and shock" air campaign launched by the United States against Iraq many years ago.
As far as Iran is concerned, launching large-scale attacks on targets on Israel's territory from 1,100 miles (1,770 kilometers), as well as coordinated attacks by the so-called proxy forces it supports from many other places, is not only a retaliatory action against the Israeli side for bombing the embassy and killing many military officers, including Al-Zahedi of the "Quds Force", but also a response to and explanation of the surging public opinion in the country.
However, it must be pointed out that this is actually a deliberate counterattack by the Iranian military. One detail testimony is that the attack lasted for five hours, and the intensive release of relatively slow attack drones was tantamount to advance notice and then launch cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. If you really care about the attack effect, even if you adjust the attack wave, I'm afraid the results will be different. However, this is probably not the most important strategic target of the Iranian military, because according to media reports, Iran had notified several neighboring countries in advance before the attack, and had communicated with the United States many times through the Swiss Embassy in Iran. In connection with last week's warning from US intelligence agencies that Iran would launch a large-scale attack within 24 to 48 hours, and US President Joe Biden publicly shouted on television that Iran would "Don't do it," or the so-called "don't fight," I personally even suspect that the possibility of Iran sending a message to the United States in advance regarding the attack cannot be ruled out.
In the aftermath of Iran's large-scale attacks, including the social media statements of the Iranian Mission to the United Nations, and even the statement issued by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the message is that if Israel does not follow up, the retaliatory attacks against Israel are over.
Straight News: So how can Israel, which has been attacked, win, and will Israel further escalate its retaliatory counterattack against Iran?
Guan Yao, Special Commentator: As far as Israel is concerned, the 99% interception rate is a complete victory, which is a justification for Israel's multi-layered air defense system. The trigger for this round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict was Hamas's saturation attack by firing rockets at Israel in October last year, and the Israeli army's "Iron Dome" short-range anti-rocket system performed poorly, resulting in heavy casualties on the Israeli side.
The main armament of Iran's attack this time is the "Witness-136" suicide drones, known as the "Tehran AK-47", about 170 units, as well as more than 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles, with a total of more than 320 (pieces), and a 99% interception rate, which means that there are about 3 or 4 (pieces) that actually fall into the territory of Israel to carry out attacks. The "Iron Dome" short-range anti-rocket system, the "David Catapult" air defense system, and even the "Arrow-2" and "Arrow-3" anti-missile systems all performed well this time. However, I have two observations: It is precisely because Iran's long-range attack is far from saturated, and it is publicized in advance and delayed during the event, that Israel's multi-level anti-missile system can respond relatively calmly. According to media reports, Israel's ultra-high interception rate of 99 percent does not rule out water, and such a high interception success is not due to military independence, but is actually the result of multinational coordination. The Israeli side also revealed that Britain and France also participated in Israel's military response this time, of which British military aircraft were ordered to intercept drones, and France provided technical and intelligence support. It is also worth noting that Middle Eastern countries, including Jordan and Saudi Arabia, have also announced that they have intercepted and destroyed the relevant offensive and Israeli weapons that flew into their airspace.
Israel's wartime cabinet met urgently on Sunday and will continue to meet today to discuss how to respond. It is not difficult to foresee that if Israel insists on escalating its retaliation against Iran, a full-scale war in the Middle East will be inevitable, and this is the worst outcome that the entire international community, including Iran, does not want to see. Some media noted that after Iran's attack, the Israeli and US defense ministers spoke on the phone, and Defense Minister Gallant did not mention an immediate counterattack, but only emphasized that Israel was ready to resist further attacks, which was seen as a signal that Israel might not react violently.
However, Israel is accustomed to responding to security threats with a tough line, and one of the immediate effects of Iran's retaliatory attack is that the international pressure on Israel in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is being greatly eased by the shift of attention and the loss of focus of public opinion. It can be expected that even if Israel does not respond immediately, the so-called "shadow war" between Israel and Iran that has been going on for many years will become open and escalate into a direct confrontation. No, the US media are already discussing the possibility of Israel launching a military strike against Tehran or even the location of Iran's nuclear facilities. As far as military technology is concerned, Iran's air defense system will be unable to block the penetration attack of the most advanced US-made military aircraft equipped by Israel, and once such a scenario is staged, a full-scale war in the Middle East is inevitable, which will also become a nightmare for US President Joe Biden.
Straight News: Why has this become Biden's nightmare? What does it mean that in a phone call with the Israeli prime minister, he declared that the United States does not support or participate in Israel's counterattack against Iran?
Guan Yao, Special Commentator: If Israel escalates a full-scale war again, the United States will inevitably become involved in the war in the Middle East on a larger scale and to a deeper extent, as this military response has done, which is of course the biggest nightmare for President Biden, who is seeking re-election.
Another high-profile event in American politics today is former President Donald Trump's appearance in New York to deal with the criminal case over the hush money case of stars, and he is likely to spend the next few weeks dealing with the lawsuit, and the most important resource for candidates is precisely time. What particularly troubles the Trump camp is that Biden's approval ratings are now approaching Trump's. So at this juncture, Biden definitely doesn't want to be dragged into the quagmire of war. Today's NBC report used the headline, "Biden officials fret that Israeli response to Iran's attack may trigger wider war." In this sense, the interests of the United States and the outside world are highly aligned. Today, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who is on the second leg of his visit to China, told the media on the Bund in Shanghai that the international community should work together to avoid an escalation of the situation in the Middle East. Yesterday, the United States convened a G7 meeting, and the New York Times broke the news that Scholz was attending the meeting online in a hotel in Chongqing.
Of course, Biden's current posture is to show support for Israel and create a persona who has everything under control. After Iran launched an attack on Israel, Biden held an emergency meeting at the White House, and judging from the official photos released, the participants included Secretary of State Blinken, Presidential National Security Advisor Sullivan, Secretary of Defense Austin, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Brown, Director of National Intelligence Haines and CIA Director Burns, etc. Notably, Vice President Harris did not show up. Biden has previously been accused of not dealing with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the United States and Israel continue to friction. Whether the US can maintain sufficient pressure and shaping capacity for follow-up actions is an important variable that will determine the future direction of the situation in the Middle East, and it is also a major test for Biden himself.
Author丨Guan Yao, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".
Editor丨Liu Liping, editor-in-chief of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News