At 01:26 a.m. on April 13, 2024, a lightning bolt swept over Chongqing Jiangbei Airport, and a thunderstorm predicted by the meteorological station of the Civil Aviation Chongqing Air Traffic Management Branch 15 hours ago arrived as scheduled, and the flights back to Hong Kong were also running smoothly and orderly in accurate and efficient meteorological services.
How was the thunderstorm accurately predicted, and what role did the forecast play in ensuring flight operations?
At 10:00 a.m. on April 12, the leaders of the meteorological station, the leaders of the forecasting room and the forecasters on duty worked together to "check the pulse" for the weather that night.
"The system is weak tonight, and thunderstorms are not very likely. "I've seen the weather data show light to moderate precipitation tonight. "You need to focus on the energy conditions, and there is still a good chance of thunder at night. ”......
At 10:30 a.m. on the 12th, everyone reached a consensus that there was a weak thunderstorm from 01:00 to 03:00 on the 13th.
At 15:00 and 20:00 on the 12th, the forecaster arrived at the control hall twice to explain the development of the night thunderstorm and the impact on flight operation for the control users; at 18:45 on the 12th, the forecaster and the airport operation management committee made a video connection and explained in detail the impact of the thunderstorm on the field and the terminal area.
At 23:23 on the 12th, the forecaster issued a weather warning in time. At 01:26 on the 13th, the observer issued a special weather report for thunderstorms, and it is worth mentioning that this report is basically the same as the thunderstorm time predicted on the morning of the 12th.
The same group of meteorologists showed their "real kung fu" with 7 days of continuous and accurate forecasts a week ago.
From March 30 to April 5, 2024, Chongqing Jiangbei Airport suffered moderate showers and thunderstorms for 7 consecutive days, with a cumulative precipitation of 52 mm. The meteorological station deployed in advance, made full preparations, reasonably matched the forces on duty, paid close attention to key links, paid close attention to the quality of weather consultations, and accurately issued 13 weather warnings within 7 days, providing strong support for ensuring the smooth and efficient operation of flights.
Take action to reduce false negatives
In order to minimize the underreporting of important weather, the weather forecast office has adopted a series of safeguard measures. The first is to reasonably match the strength of the personnel on duty; the second is that the department leaders are deeply involved in the weather consultation every day; and the third is to take the initiative to provide meteorological services face-to-face with the control users when encountering important weather.
Bold forecasts are revised in a timely manner
The systematic thunderstorm on April 2 had a greater grasp of the forecast conclusion, while the marginal moderate shower on March 30 had great differences in various numerical forecast data, and it was difficult to draw accurate conclusions. The forecaster adheres to the principle of "bold forecast, timely revision", maintains close communication with the control users, and always stands in the perspective of the user, and constantly follows up the impact of the weather on the operation.
Frequent early warning and high-quality service
In the past seven days, the Meteorological Observatory issued a total of 13 weather warnings with an average advance of 86 minutes, issued 14 warnings in the terminal area with an average advance of 138 minutes, issued 17 special weather reports, and provided 10 on-site or video weather explanations for the control department and the airport operation management committee, providing high-quality meteorological services.
Resist the pressure and break the mindset
Severe convective weather occurs continuously for many days, which is more common in July and August in the middle of summer. Therefore, the severe convective weather that occurred in March and April this year is relatively rare, and it is not easy for forecasters to withstand the pressure and dare to break the stereotype, and achieve continuous and accurate forecasts of thunderstorms.
Subsequently, the Meteorological Observatory of the Civil Aviation Chongqing Air Traffic Management Branch will further improve the local forecast indicators, make up for the shortcomings of the lack of forecasting experience, continue to improve the forecaster's numerical forecast correction ability, gradually improve the weather explanation service under complex weather conditions, and make every effort to do a good job in the meteorological forecasting and meteorological service after the switch of the civil aviation meteorological information sharing and service system, so as to meet the upcoming higher-intensity thunderstorm season meteorological support.
Upstream news reporter Wang Yufeng correspondent Wu Jianjun