Is it possible?
Recently, there has been a lot of information about encouraging cars.
Today's latest news: first-tier cities have begun to relax licensing restrictions.
Combined with last week's two stimulus:
Cancel the down payment restriction on car loans, 5 years ultra-long-term, 0 down payment, 0 interest.
Promote the trade-in of old cars, and speed up the scrapping and elimination of cars below the third national level.
Compared to a house, the way to stimulate the car is much simpler:
The financial side has 0 down payment and 0 interest, and the leverage is used to the maximum, and the old can also be used to leverage large leverage with small subsidies for trade-in.
It can also be considered to create demand, by accelerating the mandatory obsolescence and increasing the demand for new car purchases.
Compared with the toothpaste squeezed in the property market, the policy of automobiles is much brighter.
So, a speculation has recently been raised:
This is the country's preparation to replace real estate with automobiles as a new pillar industry. It sounds a bit fanciful at first, but is it really possible?
Let's break it down. There are quite a few people who disagree with this statement.
The main reasons are as follows:
1. The volume of real estate is larger than that of automobiles
At present, the total market value of China's real estate is 450 trillion yuan, with 11 trillion yuan of annual development and 6.5 trillion yuan of housing loans.
But the car is not so low:
At present, the annual revenue of the automobile industry exceeds 10 trillion yuan, and the leverage of car loans is close to 3 trillion yuan.
You must know that real estate is overdrawn for 30 years at a time, and the vast majority of people only have one house in their lifetime, and there is very little room for future growth, and a real estate cycle is only 15 years at most.
But cars are different.
Especially now that the new energy vehicle is actually the logic of a smart phone, whether it is technology or experience, the update and loan repayment are fast, and even the demand for battery replacement is also very large.
An overdraft for 30 years, a few years to replace, each has its own strengths.
2. Cars are consumer goods and cannot be speculated
Cars depreciate as soon as they are bought, cannot increase in value, and cannot be speculated, which means that the purchase demand is insufficient.
In fact, I also think too much:
The house can't be exported, but the car can.
The house is superimposed on the hype demand, but the car is oriented to the global market, each with its own strengths.
And now:
Under the condition that the house is not speculated, the house is actually half a consumer product.
Who would dare to speculate in real estate.
Automobile exports are in the ascendant, and the future imagination space is huge, of course, it will face the resistance of Europe and the United States.
One relies on hype, the other can export, and it is a tie.
3. The industrial chain of real estate affects the whole body
Take a look at the real estate industry chain: it is not an exaggeration to say that there are hundreds of industrial chains, so in the past, if you wanted to stimulate the economy, as long as you stimulate real estate, real estate eats meat, and everyone can drink soup.
But you find that no, real estate is mainly driven by old production capacity and upstream industries.
But the car is different:
Capacity of car pulling:
The first feature is new, and both upstream and midstream are new materials and technology manufacturing.
Take 10,000 steps back, even if these output values are not as large as the old production capacity, but the old production capacity is outdated, repeated construction is a waste, and the new production capacity will have more room for imagination in the future.
The second characteristic is that it is long, and the downstream service market is much longer than the real estate market.
In addition to financial services, as consumer goods, automobiles have also driven the service industries that cannot be driven by real estate, such as insurance, repair, maintenance, and recycling.
In particular, Xiaomi has come up with a one-person car home mode:
It also has the function of real estate to stimulate the consumption of household appliances.
If you count the exports:
Foreign trade business can also be pulled.
In this way, there are not many chains pulled by the automotive industry.
This one is a draw.
What do you think about this?