At 7:00 a.m. yesterday (2:00 p.m. local time in Israel), Iran launched a number of missiles and more than 300 drones (99% intercepted) to strike at the Israeli mainland in retaliation for the Israeli bombing of the Iranian embassy in Syria on the 1st of this month, which killed several senior military officers. As soon as this news came out, the world was shocked, and it is uneasy whether there will be a more violent military action in Iran in the future, and whether it will trigger a large-scale war.
As we know, it has been half a year since the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict broke out on 7 October last year. The current round of conflict has been protracted and confrontational to a large number of civilian casualties and a serious humanitarian crisis, with spillover effects affecting all countries in the region.
Since the outbreak of the current round of conflict, more than 33,000 people have been killed and more than 75,000 injured in Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip, millions have been displaced, and more than 2 million Palestinians are suffering from starvation, disease and death.
At present, the Israeli army's key target is Rafah, the southernmost city in the Gaza Strip. More than 1.5 million Palestinian civilians have taken refuge in Rafah. The international community is concerned that if the Israeli army launches a ground offensive against Rafah, it will cause a large number of civilian deaths. However, Iraqi Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly said that the Israeli army will eventually launch a ground offensive against Rafah in order to completely eliminate the Palestinian resistance group Hamas.
The impact of the current round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues to spill over, and the situation in the region is tense in many directions. Allah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen have clashed with Israel to show their support for Palestine. The airstrikes on the building of the Iranian embassy in Syria at the beginning of the month, and yesterday's large-scale missile and drone attacks on the Israeli mainland, further pushed the situation to an even more dangerous situation.
In the Red Sea, Yemen's Houthi rebels have frequently attacked ships linked to Israel and the United States, and the United States and Britain have repeatedly carried out airstrikes on Houthi targets, resulting in casualties. The Red Sea crisis has forced several shipping giants to avoid this busy shipping lane, and freight costs have increased significantly, severely affecting the global maritime industry.
On the Lebanese-Israeli border, Allah Lebanon continued to detect rockets into northern Israel, and Israel launched air and artillery strikes into southern Lebanon. The current round of conflict has left 313 people dead, about 1,000 injured and about 100,000 displaced in southern Lebanon.
The ceasefire in Gaza is fraught with difficulties, and the American factor behind it cannot be ignored. As Israel's ally and largest military donor, the United States has long been "pulling sides" on the Palestinian-Israeli issue, and after the outbreak of the current round of conflict, it has continued to support Israel and continue to send weapons and ammunition. The United States has also exercised its veto power on draft resolutions related to a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and rejected the international community's demand for an immediate ceasefire.
Although there have been some differences between the United States and Israel in the recent war in Gaza, and the United States has made some mediation gestures, the United States has not exerted substantial pressure on Israel, has continued to provide weapons, and has favored Israel at the level of the United Nations Security Council.
The United States has been providing military aid and political asylum to Israel, which has made the ceasefire indefinite, and the road to peace in the Gaza Strip has been at an impasse.
Finally, Iran, the anti-American stronghold, is the Houthis, Lebanese Allah and other anti-American organizations "gold master" and backstage, will there be a direct large-scale war with Israel's "godfather" United States, perhaps Iran and Israel face to face in a full-scale war, I think there is a high probability that it will not, but Iran will attack Israeli embassies and consulates outside the country, or to attack the weak areas to vent again, or to launch a proxy war against Israel, there is a high probability. This is my analysis, prediction and speculation, if it is inappropriate, please criticize and correct it. (April 15 Chenchen)