Weekly review
This week, the main rebar contract rebounded quickly after opening low, and returned to above 3600, under pressure near the previous high, continued to increase the volume of positions significantly, and the weekly K-line closed the solid Dayang line; from the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, this week's rebar showed a pattern of supply and demand increase, the operating rate of electric furnace steel mills continued to fall, the operating rate of blast furnace steel mills continued to fall slightly, the weekly output fell slightly, the apparent demand on demand rebounded again, the spot high-frequency transaction failed to continue to rise, the inventory continued to go to the warehouse state rapidly, the monthly data steel exports were greatly increased, the supply and demand drove the upper margin to strengthen, and the weekly increase in bifocal and iron ore prices at the raw material end exceeded 10%, the cost support has also boosted the price of rebar, but it is necessary to pay attention to the fact that with the upward shift of the center of gravity of price fluctuations, whether the domestic demand and export volume of rebar can continue to rise, whether the 'positive feedback' drive can be formed, and the accelerated rise in non-ferrous metal and precious metal prices has increased the volatility of market sentiment and commodity prices, so the market needs to be cautious in the future, and the medium-term can still maintain more ideas.
Supply and demand analysis
1. Demand: The average daily turnover of construction steel in the country failed to further rise after the holiday, but it remained at an average of more than 160,000 tons per day, and the apparent demand rose again to more than 2.8 million tons. 'Volume increase and price reduction' indicates that domestic steel has obvious cost performance after the price falls, pay attention to the sustainability of the domestic apparent demand and export volume recovery with the price recovery in the future, and pay attention to the marginal change of weekly apparent demand in the short term.
(Figure: National average daily trading volume of construction steel Data source: Mysteel)
(Figure: Weekly apparent demand for rebar Data source: Mysteel)
2. Supply: The turnover of screw rebar production fell slightly, still maintained around 2.1 million tons, the operating rate of blast furnaces continued to rise, the output of molten iron rose slightly above 2.24 million tons, the operating rate of electric furnace steel mills continued to weaken, the inventory of steel mills continued to go to the warehouse rapidly, and the profits of steel mills continued to repair slightly after the rebound of steel prices.
(Figure: Rebar production Data source: Mysteel)
(Figure: Blast furnace operating rate Data source: Mysteel)
(Figure: Electric furnace operating rate Data source: Mysteel)
(Figure: Average daily output of molten iron of 247 iron and steel enterprises Data source: Mysteel)
(Figure: Gross profit per ton of rebar Data source: Mysteel)
3. Inventory: This week, the rebar inventory continued to accelerate to the warehouse, the social inventory went to the warehouse 420,000 tons, the steel mill inventory went to the warehouse 346,000 tons, a total of 766,000 tons, the inventory to the warehouse is still maintained at a relatively fast speed, it is expected that with the further recovery of demand, as well as the weak supply of steel mills in the case of limited profits, the inventory will continue and accelerate in the state of increasing supply and decreasing supply, and pay attention to the marginal changes in weekly inventory.
(Figure: Rebar Social Inventory Data source: Mysteel)
(Figure: Rebar mill inventory Data source: Mysteel)
Investment strategy
Rebar 10 contract this week low open back to probe 3450 near the support after a rapid rebound, in the 3600 mark near the repeated shock finishing after the continued upward pressure, to the previous high near the pressure; from the price driven, technical low rebound repair, rapid feedback supply and demand structure driven by stronger, raw material price rebound driven and commodity market sentiment overall strength and other factors under the combined influence of rebar prices bottomed out again, the market outlook will test the rebound sustainability and rebound space, you can pay attention to the effective breakthrough of the previous high pressure level, the strength of the peak season demand and macro policy and geopolitical disturbances under the overall changes in the commodity marketIn terms of operation ideas, you can maintain more ideas, pay attention to the conversion of market rhythm, and do a good job of taking profit and stopping loss.