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Cover News Reporter Zhu Ning
Recently, the gold market has started a continuous rise mode, and gold futures and spot prices have hit record highs. At present, the retail gold jewellery listing price of many domestic gold, silver and jewellery brand stores is between 720 yuan/gram and 730 yuan/gram.
On April 14, the cover news reporter visited several brand gold jewelry stores in Chengdu and learned that the high price has made many consumers shy away from gold jewelry and have a certain hesitation to buy gold jewelry.
The price of gold jewelry at a branded gold jewelry store in Chengdu
The price of gold jewelry is approaching 730 yuan per gram
High prices "dissuade" consumers
The international gold price has climbed sharply since February 15. Specifically, COMEX gold on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $2005.0 per ounce on February 14, rising step by step, to a record high of $2384.5 per ounce on April 9, with a range increase of 18.93%, and a pullback on April 10, as of April 12, COMEX gold was reported at $2412.2 per ounce. When the international gold price continued to rise, the domestic retail gold price once exceeded 720 yuan/gram, and the retail gold price of some brands was even close to 730 yuan/gram.
Regarding the recent rise in gold prices, many netizens have commented that "I regret not getting on the car" and "the price of gold jewelry is too high". Some netizens also said, "I don't dare to buy it at this price now." ”
"During this time, there is one price per day, and in general, it is a small rise and not a fall, or a big rise and a small fall. The sales of a gold store in Chengdu told reporters, "Recently, the price of gold has risen too high, many consumers are waiting, I have served a couple who are about to get married, bought a ring before the Chinese New Year, and recently wanted to buy earrings, bracelets and other jewelry, because the recent gold price has risen too high, has been hesitating." ”
The salesperson told reporters that if you are in a hurry to get married, you can consider platinum rings, and there has been no big price fluctuations recently.
The reporter visited several brand gold stores in Chengdu and found that the listing price of gold jewelry today fell slightly from 730 yuan per gram a few days ago, and the price of interior products in gold jewelry stores such as Lao Fengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Zhou Shengsheng is mostly between 720 yuan and 728 yuan per gram, in the actual purchase process, different brand stores will give different degrees of discount through in-store discounts, discounts, and full reductions, and the final price is between 680 yuan and 710 yuan per gram.
"The peak period of gold consumption is generally around the Chinese New Year, and now after entering March and April, consumers' enthusiasm for buying has decreased, and the flow of customers and transactions will be less. A gold jewelry store clerk told reporters that the price of gold has continued to rise recently, and some "non-rigid demand" consumers will also choose to wait and see.
"The price of gold is at a high level, and the price has a great impact on the willingness to buy, whether it is a consumer with rigid demand or non-rigid demand. "There are researchers in the field of gold consumption told reporters that for ordinary consumers, gold jewelry consumption and gold investment are completely different, from the consumer psychology, most consumers essentially still gold jewelry as the future can be recycled consumer goods at a discount, since it is a consumer goods, it must be more cost-effective to buy at a low price, and the price will choose a substitute for gold jewelry or cancel the purchase.
Gold ornaments on the counter
Gold prices are rising
The performance of gold concept stocks and the stock price "fly together"
Although the rise in gold prices has caused the sales of gold jewelry stores to shrink in the short term, gold-related companies have ushered in an increase in stock prices and performance.
On the last trading day (April 12), gold concept stocks were repeatedly active, and the sector index once again ushered in ten consecutive yangs, with a cumulative increase of nearly 20% since the beginning of this year. The precious metals sector even soared 40% during the year. In terms of individual stocks, Pengxin Resources has a daily limit, Laishen Tongling has 9 boards, and Mancaron, Chifeng Gold, Yintai Gold, CICC Gold, Shandong Gold, etc. have followed suit.
In addition, gold producers have benefited from the surge in gold prices. According to the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2024 recently disclosed by Hunan Gold, the company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 149 million yuan to 170 million yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 40% to 60%. As for the main reason for the increase in performance, the company said that it was mainly due to the increase in product prices.
According to Yintai Gold's first-quarter performance forecast, the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter of this year to be 480 million yuan to 520 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.94% to 75.43%. The company said that during the reporting period, the company's mines continued to maintain steady operation, and the year-on-year increase in net profit was mainly due to the increase in gold and silver prices and the increase in sales.
Shandong Gold released a quarterly performance forecast, and it is expected that the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company in the first quarter will be 650 million yuan to 750 million yuan, an increase of 48.11% to 70.9% year-on-year. As for the reasons for the sharp increase in performance in the first quarter of this year, Shandong Gold mentioned in the announcement that the continuous rise in gold prices and the successful acquisition of Yintai Gold have provided a positive impetus for profit growth.
In fact, as the price of gold rises, investors may increase their purchases of gold out of a trend mentality or anticipation of future market movements. In addition, large-scale trading activity, including activity in futures and over-the-counter markets, could also drive gold prices higher.
Multi-factor resonance helped gold prices rise
Gold prices still have some room to rise
It is worth noting that the latest US PPI data may be a booster for the recent surge in gold prices. According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 11th, PPI increased by 2.1% year-on-year in March, a new high since April last year, but lower than the expected 2.2% and 0.2% month-on-month, lower than expected and the previous value. Market analysts believe that the PPI data came in slightly lower than expected, which allowed hopes that the Fed could cut interest rates by the end of the year to continue.
It should be pointed out that, generally speaking, the gold price and the US dollar show a "seesaw" relationship, that is, when the US dollar is strong, the gold price falls, and conversely, when the US dollar is weak, the gold price rises. Once the Fed starts a cycle of interest rate cuts, the dollar index is expected to continue to fall, which will be bullish for dollar-denominated precious metals.
"Gold is still on the upswing and its strong trend remains unchanged in the short term. Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, said that the logic behind the rise in gold is that in the past few years, the world's major central banks have issued a large number of paper money to stimulate the economy through quantitative easing, making the value of gold more prominent, and on the other hand, the world's major central banks, including the Central Bank of China, have increased their holdings of gold reserves, which have pushed up the price of gold.
In addition to the background of the Fed's interest rate cuts, "central bank gold purchases" also played an important role in this round of gold market. As an important reserve asset of central banks around the world, the purchase and sale of gold has always been the focus of market attention. According to the World Gold Council's latest Global Gold Demand Trends Report, global central bank purchases of gold reached 1,037 tonnes in 2023, the second highest on record, only 45 tonnes less than in 2022, while central bank data showed that China's gold reserves were 72.74 million ounces at the end of March and 72.58 million ounces at the end of February, marking the 17th consecutive month of gold reserves.
Huatai Securities said that the global central bank has strengthened the position of gold allocation, and the accumulation of positive factors may promote the gold price to exceed $3,000 per ounce in the future. In 2022-2023, the central bank's large-scale gold purchase demand has gradually replaced the investment demand of gold ETFs and physical gold, and has become the dominant factor affecting the rise of gold prices in the interest rate hike cycle.
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