The "Aukus" plan to admit Japan is constrained by a number of factors

Hot news: U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met in Washington on April 10 about the possibility of Japan's participation in the "second pillar" of the "Aukus" agreement in the future. Prior to this, the defense ministers of the United States, Britain and Australia held talks on April 8 and announced that they would start discussions related to the "Aukus" expansion plan, including strengthening defense cooperation with Japan in artificial intelligence, hypersonic weapons and other technologies in accordance with the "Aukus" agreement.

Comment: "AUKUS" is a multilateral military alliance led by the United States, which has attracted attention because its member states are all related to Anglo-Saxon blood. In recent years, the United States has actively promoted the process of expanding the "Aukus" as an important measure to deepen the "Indo-Pacific" strategy, with the intention of making it a military security bloc covering the Indian Ocean and the Pacific region. Japan, as an important ally of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region, has become the first choice for the expansion of the mechanism. Under this influence, New Zealand, Canada and other countries have also shown great interest in participating in the "Aukus". From the perspective of future development, the US move to promote the expansion of the "AUKUS" membership, which is obviously blocized and zero-sum game mentality, will further intensify geopolitical confrontation and bring greater risks of turbulence and division to the regional security situation.

The "AUKUS" cooperation mechanism has been continuously deepened

AUKUS is a military alliance established in 2021 under the trilateral security agreement between the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia, and is an important part of the many bilateral and multilateral military alliances formed by the United States to implement the Indo-Pacific Strategy. At the moment, "Aukus" has two main "pillar" projects. The "first pillar" mainly involves cooperation in the nuclear field, including the deployment of US nuclear submarines in Australia, the transfer of nuclear-powered submarines and technology to Australia, and the gradual transition to the joint development and construction of next-generation nuclear submarines by the three countries. This pillar is the original intention of the "AUKUS" alliance and an important indicator to test the success of this platform.

The "second pillar" mainly involves cutting-edge technology cooperation projects, including the coordinated development of key technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum domains, advanced networks, hypersonic weapons and electronic warfare among the three countries, and their transformation into combat effectiveness in military applications, so as to enhance the joint capabilities and interoperability between the three countries. The "second pillar" was not originally the focus of the "AUKUS" cooperation, but with the increasing uncertainty of nuclear submarine-related cooperation in the "first pillar", the United States began to vigorously promote the "second pillar" cooperation process, trying to avoid the risk of delay in the development of the "AUKUS" due to the obstruction of nuclear submarine cooperation by strengthening cooperation with more countries in the non-nuclear field.

In addition to the cooperation on the two "pillars" of the project, the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia have also held joint military exercises and training to improve the cooperative combat capabilities of member countries, which is an important part of the expansion of "AUKUS" military cooperation. In November 2022, the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia conducted a joint military exercise codenamed "Sharp Sword", which mainly focused on testing new equipment and practicing new tactics. In February 2023, the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia conducted joint air exercises at Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada. During the exercise, the U.S. Air Force dispatched F-22, F-35, B-52, F-16 fighters and C-130 transport aircraft, the British Royal Air Force dispatched KC-2 tankers and Typhoon fighter jets, and Australia dispatched EA-18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft. In addition, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia have also expanded the scope of military cooperation to multilateral frameworks such as the "Quadrilateral Mechanism" between the United States, Australia, Japan and India, and the "Five Eyes Alliance" between the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, and continuously promoted the deepening and development of the "Aukus" mechanism.

Japan has become the preferred target for the expansion of "Aukus".

As an important ally of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan has always been seen as the preferred target for participation in the "second pillar" of "AUKUS". The United States, Britain, and Australia have tentatively invited Japan to join "Aukus" on many informal occasions. In December 2022, during the "2+2" talks between Japan's foreign ministers and defense ministers with Australia, the Australian side expressed its hope that Japan would join "AUKUS", and said that it expected Japan to participate in the development of artificial intelligence, hypersonic and other technologies under this framework, and jointly explore their application in the military field. In February 2023, the Defence Committee of the House of Commons of the British Parliament said it would explore issues related to the extension of Aukus to Japan and India. Before the U.S.-Japan summit, U.S. Ambassador to Japan Emanuel also said that Japan "will soon become the first new 'second pillar' program partner", paving the way for "Aukus" to expand its membership in Japan.

For Japan, out of consideration of its own strategic goals, it also has a strong interest in joining the "AUKUS". In recent years, the Japanese government has been breaking through the "Peace Constitution" in small steps. In December 2022, the Japanese government adopted the new "Three Security Documents", abandoning the principle of "exclusive defense" and proposing to "fundamentally strengthen defense capabilities" and build offensive military capabilities capable of "preemptive strikes". Starting at the end of 2023, the Japanese government has twice significantly revised the "Three Principles for the Transfer of Defense Equipment" and its implementation guidelines, so that Japan's finished weapons can be exported not only directly to authorized countries that have given Japan "production licenses", but also to other countries around the world with conditions. In March 2024, Japan decided at a cabinet meeting to lift the ban on the export of next-generation fighter jets jointly developed by Japan with the United Kingdom and Italy to third countries, and revised the operational guidelines of the "Three Principles for the Transfer of Defense Equipment" at the National Security Council, which means that its national security strategy and defense policy are being fundamentally adjusted.

Japan believes that the realization of the above-mentioned strategic objectives is inseparable from the recognition and support of the United States, and that by joining the "AUKUS," it will not only consolidate and strengthen its alliance with the United States, but also show that Japan's advanced nature of science and technology and the United States' status as a "core ally" will be recognized, and its status in the US-Japan alliance will also be further enhanced. It is precisely because of this "careful thinking" that Japan actively sought to enter the game as early as the launch of "Aukus" and made efforts to participate in cooperation with the three countries. In addition to the US-Japan alliance, the Japanese government has also concluded "Reciprocal Access Agreements" with the United Kingdom and Australia, and has established a "quasi-alliance" relationship with the two countries second only to the US-Japan alliance. In November 2023, former Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso declared during his visit to Australia that he hoped Japan would join the "Aukus", and said that if Australia's nuclear submarines need to dock in Japan in the future, they will be able to provide logistical support for them by referring to the US precedent. All this reflects Japan's strong desire to join the "Aukus," and its purpose is to break through the principle of "exclusive defense," "lift the ban" for itself, and become a military power that "can attack and defend."

The outlook is uncertain due to multiple factors

At present, the member countries of the "Aukus" alliance are all Anglo-Saxon countries, which have distinct characteristics of blood relations, which objectively also makes the member states have a sense of intimacy and alienation from other allies. In order to eliminate this estrangement, the United States, Britain and Australia began to attract more allies of different blood cultures, such as Japan and South Korea, to join the mechanism, and constantly promoted the expansion process of "Aukus". In particular, the United States is constantly deepening its "Indo-Pacific strategy", and in order to make up for the shortcomings caused by the relative decline of its own strength, it is actively building "small multilateral" mechanisms such as the "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue", "Five Eyes Alliance" and "Aukus", trying to use allies as "force multipliers" and achieve "whole team alignment" through "flexible cooperation" in different fields.

For the United States, AUKUS, as the core alliance of its "Indo-Pacific strategy", can help bring the military power of Australia and the United Kingdom into the Western Pacific region, thereby strengthening the United States in the "Indo-Pacific" The inclusion of Japan in this mechanism would allow the U.S.-Japan bilateral alliance system to be integrated with other U.S.-led military cliques, so that the Australian and British militaries would also enjoy the privileges of the U.S. military in Japan, and Japan would provide these countries with more military bases and large infrastructure, so as to better cooperate with the U.S. military activities in the region to gather more allies.

From the perspective of future development, to achieve the goal of using the power of allies in the Pacific and Indian Oceans more broadly, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia will continue to expand the number of "AUKUS" members in the "3+1", "3+2" and "3+N" ways. In addition to Japan, many more countries, such as New Zealand, Canada, South Korea, India and even the Philippines, could be potential targets for expansion. For example, AUKUS has recently made frequent overtures to New Zealand, which is also a member of the Five Eyes Alliance, and has repeatedly expressed its willingness to include it in the mechanism. In July 2023, during his visit to South Pacific countries, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken repeatedly extended invitations to New Zealand to participate in the Aukus weapons development and procurement project. In December 2023, New Zealand's new Prime Minister Christopher Lacson said that the possibility of limited participation in the Aukus mechanism, in particular new technology cooperation opportunities, would be seriously considered. On April 6, 2024, the New Zealand foreign minister also traveled to Washington, which coincided with Kishida's visit to the United States, and the topic will also involve the expansion of "Aukus".

Generally speaking, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia have actively promoted the expansion of the group by taking the "second pillar" of "AUKUS" as the starting point, exposing the group's tendency to promote regional confrontation by creating a closed and exclusive "small circle", and the consistent trick of the United States in trying to use multilateral regional alliances to achieve its own hegemony. However, judging from the effect, the expansion of "Aukus" ostensibly strengthens the regional momentum of the alliance, but in fact, it buries more irreconcilable contradictions internally, which need to pay greater costs in the future. As far as the "Aukus" is concerned, in fact, the "first pillar" nuclear submarine cooperation is more important internally, and the "second pillar" is relatively weaker for the alliance, especially the United States' geopolitical layout, and if the resistance increases, the United States can terminate it at any time without taking into account the feelings of joining the alliance later, and these will also have greater concerns about the latter, thus making it difficult for the "Aukus" alliance to expand its membership plan in the short term.

Column Editor-in-Chief: Zhang Wu Text Editor: Dong Siyun Source of the title map: Shangguan title map

Source: Author: The Paper