The first group of Western Conference playoffs is out: the 4th Clippers in the West VS the 5th Mavericks in the West. Although the 5th Maverick in the West has played very well in recent games, I am more optimistic about the Clippers 4:3 Mavericks advancing in this group of matchups.
1. The Clippers have a superior regular season record and home court advantage. The Clippers and the Mavericks have a 2:1 record this season, but the reference is insufficient, and the Mavericks won one game coincided with Harden's run-in period at the beginning of the Clippers season, and the two games won by the Clippers were in December, when the Mavericks had not yet traded. But the Clippers have one more home-court advantage.
2. The Clippers are not afraid of the Lone Ranger. In the stage of the Clippers' outstanding record before the All-Star break, the only opponents who lost a few games were: Timberwolves, Cavaliers, Pelicans, the only weak link of the Clippers' lineup is the average interior offense and defense, the average quality of the frame, and it is almost impossible to prevent it when encountering teams like Gobert and Towns with tall interior offensive ability. But I'm not afraid of teams with outside core play such as the Green Army, Thunder, Suns, and Mavericks.
The Mavericks' 208cm Gafford and 201cm Washington are short interior players with good bounce and speed. The duo had little ability to play in the low post, with Gafford scoring on eating cakes and Washington scoring on the inside. The Clippers don't have much pressure to defend in the low post of the restricted area.
3. The Clippers have ample defensive resources against the Eastern European combination. The Mavericks' offense looks at Eastern Europe, Eastern Europe belongs to the outside of the main style of play players, and the Clippers have the league's second only to the Green Army's outside defensive resources, Leonard, George, Mann, Coffey, size, speed, strength, experience is the best candidate to deal with the Eastern European combination.
The sample for reference is the Warriors, who are very similar to the Clippers' main lineup in size and bench depth, and did not fall behind in 2 games against the Mavericks in April (refer to my previous 2 games answer). Coffey and Mann are the first choice to target Doncic and Irving, and the defensive performance of these two players will determine whether the Clippers can beat the Mavericks.
4. There are too many non-projection points in the main lineup of the Mavericks. The other 3 members of the Mavericks' main lineup: Gafford , Washington, and Jones have weaknesses on the offensive end, Gafford is not much of a threat except for eating cakes and the second offense after rebounding in the front court; Jones's ability to hold the ball alone is weak, and the 3-point shot is extremely unstable; Washington's style of play is inconsistent and his shooting is also unstable, shooting 44% from the field and 32% from 3-point range this season.
In the playoffs, Doncic is likely to be pinched, Irving has to be guarded tightly, and the offense and projection of the other three players in the main force are relatively weak; once it falls into the situation of a single leader in Eastern Europe, the team does not have a suitable third person to hold the ball alone, and there are few high-quality off-ball pitchers.
The Mavericks are bound to remove Jones and replace him with Hardaway, the third scorer of the season, but Hardaway's shooting level has dropped significantly this season, with his 3-point shooting rate dropping from 38.5% last season to 35.5%, and Hardaway's offensive threat with the ball is not great;
5. The Clippers' superstar mid-range singles happen to be the Mavericks' seven inches. The Mavericks' Leonard and George are very good at mid-range singles. And the quality of the projection in the middle range determines how far the playoffs can go, and although Gafford has a strong interior guard, it can't cover the middle range. Although Jones and Washington have strong defense, they are only at the upper middle level in the league, and when they encounter a mid-range hard solution master like Leonard, I am afraid that no one can defend against it.
6. The Clippers' benches are better than the Mavericks. Compared with the Mavericks' bench 4: Hardaway, Green, Exum, and Lively, and the Clippers' bench 4: Powell, Westbrook, Coffey, and Plumlee (Theis), from the performance of the regular season and personal experience, the ability to play tough battles and key shots is stronger.
7. The Clippers' Death 5 Little Finish Gram Mavericks. Because Gafford is a cake king of average height, when the Clippers encounter difficulties, it is very likely that Leonard + George + Coffey + Man + Harden (Westbrook) will die 5 hours in the 4th quarter to close the game, and the Mavericks' death will be 5 small, Eastern Europe + Washington + Hardaway + Green (Exum), Hardaway and Green, the ability and experience of these two people may lag behind.
The above is just a prediction. There are too many unpredictable factors in the outcome of a basketball game, such as George and Harden are sluggish, such as Hardaway is going berserk, the strength of the two teams is very close, and luck can affect the direction of the game between the two teams more than strength.
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