The US PPI for March, released on Thursday, accelerated from February, but there were some signs that inflation was not picking up at an accelerated pace. The March PPI growth rate of 2.1% year-on-year was slightly lower than expected, and the month-on-month growth rate slowed to 0.2% more than expected, the core PPI accelerated to 2.4% month-on-month for the third consecutive month, slightly higher than expected, and the month-on-month growth rate slowed to 0.2% from February, in line with expectations.
The PPI has brought some relief to investors who are anxious about the resurgence of inflation after the CPI released on Wednesday rose more than expected for three consecutive months. After the PPI was released, U.S. Treasury bond prices turned higher intraday and yields retreated. The yield, the interest-sensitive two-year Treasury note, rose above the 5.0% mark for the first time since mid-November before turning downward. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note after the release of the PPI turned downward, and then rebounded, hitting a new five-month high for consecutive days, and holding above the key level of 4.50% that broke through Wednesday, as bond market traders are preparing for a yield break above 5.0%.
After the PPI was announced, major U.S. stock indexes opened higher and all turned lower in early trading. Energy stocks led the decline on Wednesday, while banking giants such as JPMorgan Chase, which will kick off the earnings season on Friday, fell to weigh on the broader market. Investors are paying attention to the clues of interest rate cuts revealed by the speeches of Fed officials. New York Fed President Williams, the Fed's "third-in-command", said the Fed had made "tremendous progress" in balancing the twin goals of inflation and employment, but there was no need to cut interest rates "in the short term." Richmond Fed President Barkin said the data raised questions about whether the inflation trend had shifted. Treasury yields recovered somewhat after Williams' speech.
The Nasdaq rose nearly 2% in one day, the best one-day performance since Nvidia announced its excellent earnings report more than a month ago. After the news that it was brewing to upgrade its Mac to adopt AI-powered M4 chips, Apple's intraday gains extended to more than 4%, and rebounded strongly after falling to a five-month low on Wednesday. Nvidia, which fell into the adjustment range on Tuesday, accelerated its rebound and also rose more than 4%, erasing all losses this month. After the media said that its wealth management business was investigated by a number of regulators, Morgan Stanley dived at midday, and most other major banks such as JPMorgan Chase also closed down.
In the currency market, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates unchanged as expected, but commented that the ECB has signaled the clearest signal to date that it may start cutting interest rates within two months. Central Bank Governor Christine Lagarde said at the post-meeting press conference that some information and data were available in April, and some ECB Governing Council members were already confident in inflation, but in June we knew that more data and information would be available. The euro extended its losses during Lagarde's press conference, falling to a low in about two months.
The euro fell and helped the dollar index, which turned lower after the release of the PPI, to rebound and hit a new high in nearly five months. The yen's losses widened, and after falling below the warning line of 152.00 on Wednesday, the yen repeatedly fell below 153.00 against the dollar on Thursday, hitting a new low since 1990, making investors highly wary of whether the Japanese government will intervene. The dollar's strength came as bitcoin's intraday rally was limited, falling below the $70,000 mark at one point, failing to approach a more than three-week high of $73,000 hit on Monday.
Among commodities, PPI has warmed expectations of Fed rate cuts, coupled with geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Ukraine, which jointly supported gold's rebound, with spot gold and New York gold futures both rising nearly 2% intraday, regaining the momentum of record highs before Wednesday's retreat. However, international crude oil failed to maintain the rebound on Wednesday, and U.S. oil and cloth oil both fell more than 1% intraday. Investors weigh the possibility of Iran attacking Israel in retaliation against Israel. The commentary said that the geopolitical risks appear at a time when the oil market is expected to be tight, as the northern hemisphere enters the peak of summer driving demand, OPEC+ voluntary production cuts will end in the middle of the year, and OPEC+ will be the key to the outlook for oil prices in the second half of the year.
Nasdaq, Google, and Amazon all hit record highs, Apple's Nvidia led the "Seven Sisters" Morgan Stanley recorded the biggest decline in nearly half a year
The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively opened higher, and fell in early trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 106 points at the beginning and then quickly turned down, falling more than 260 points or nearly 0.7% in early trading, and rising nearly 140 points or 0.4% after turning higher at midday. The S&P 500 fell more than 0.4% in early trading and turned higher at the end of the morning, rising 1% at midday. The Nasdaq Composite Index turned lower in early trading, and its gains extended to more than 1% at midday, rising 1.8%.
In the end, among the three major indexes, only the Dow closed down, down 2.43 points, less than 0.01%, to 38459.08 points, falling for four consecutive days, and refreshing the closing low since February 14 for two days. The Nasdaq, which ended its two-day winning streak on Wednesday, closed up 1.68%, the biggest gain since the first trading day after Nvidia's earnings report on February 22, at 16,442.20 points, a record closing high. The S&P closed up 0.74% at 5,199.06, not approaching the lowest level since March 15 set last Thursday.
The Russell 2000, a small-cap index dominated by value stocks, closed up 0.7% before rebounding on Wednesday after falling back to its lowest level since March 18. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index closed up 1.65%, rebounding to its highest level since March 22 and approaching its record closing record on March 22. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology constituents in the Nasdaq-100 index, closed up 2.34%, rebounding and closing at an all-time high.
Among the major sectors of the S&P 500, a total of five closed higher on Thursday, led by IT, where chip stocks such as Apple and Nvidia are located, rose more than 2.3%, Google's communication services rose more than 1.1%, Amazon's consumer discretionary rose more than 0.9%, and industrials rose 0.1%. Among the six sectors that closed down, Morgan Stanley's financial sector fell nearly 0.6%, healthcare fell nearly 0.5%, and energy, which had fallen more than 1% in early trading, closed down 0.2%.
Including Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Google's parent company Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook's parent company Meta, and Tesla, the technology giants "Seven Sisters" partially turned down in early trading or had turned down in the short term, and rose at midday.
Tesla, which fell nearly 3% on Wednesday and was the largest loser in the "Seven Sisters", turned lower in less than 20 minutes after opening, falling nearly 1.9% in early trading, rising about 2% in midday trading, and closing up nearly 1.7%, starting to approach Tuesday's closing high since March 27.
Among the six major technology stocks of FAANMG, Apple opened higher, rising more than 4% in late trading and closing up 4.3%, rebounding to the highest closing level since March 20 after falling back to the lowest level since October 26, 2023 on Wednesday; Alphabet, which ended its three-day winning streak, closed up 2% on Wednesday, refreshing the all-time closing high set on Tuesday; Amazon, which turned lower in the short term at the beginning of the session, rose more than 2% at midday and closed up nearly 1.7%, hitting a record high in both intraday and close; Microsoft, which had turned slightly lower in early trading, closed up 1.1% Meta, which had a slight turn of losses in early trading, closed up 0.6% to close to the all-time high set last Friday, and Netflix, which had turned slightly lower in early trading, closed up nearly 1.7%, starting to approach the high since November 2021 set by last Friday's rebound.
Chip stocks rebounded overall and outperformed the market. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Semiconductor Industry ETF SOXX turned lower in the short term less than an hour after opening, rising more than 2% at midday to close up about 2.4% and nearly 2.3%, respectively, before rebounding after a three-day winning streak on Wednesday. Among chip stocks, Nvidia, which rebounded against the market on Wednesday, maintained its gains throughout the day, closing up 4.1%, rising for two consecutive days to close at a high level since March 26, away from the closing low since March 4, which was refreshed on Tuesday; At the close, Arm rose nearly 5%, Broadcom rose more than 4%, Qualcomm rose 2.5%, AMD rose 2%, Intel, which turned down many times in early and midday, rose more than 1%, and TSMC U.S. stocks, which had fallen more than 1% in early trading, rose nearly 0.7%.
AI concept stocks mostly rose. At the close, Astera Labs (ALAB), known as "Little Nvidia" and selling data center interconnect chips, rose 6%, SoundHound.ai (SOUN) rose nearly 5.8%, ultra-micro computer (SMCI) rose more than 3%, Palantir (PLTR) rose nearly 1.9%, Oracle (ORCL) rose more than 1%, C3.ai (AI) rose nearly 0.3%, and BigBear.ai (BBAI) fell more than 1% , Adobe (ADBE) fell 0.6%.
The index of bank stocks was mixed. The overall banking index, the KBW Bank Index (BKX), closed down nearly 0.8%, falling for two consecutive days, updating its lowest level since March 19, while the KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX), which fell sharply by 5% on Wednesday, closed up less than 0.1%, close to the low since November 30, 2023, which was refreshed on Wednesday, and fell back to the lowest regional bank stock ETF since February 13 on Wednesday The SPDR S&P Regional Banks ETF (KRE) also closed up less than 0.1%.
Among the big banks, Morgan Stanley closed down nearly 5.2%, the biggest drop since October 18, 2023, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America closed down 0.8%, and JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup, which will report earnings on Friday, closed slightly lower, closed down 0.4% and closed up nearly 0.9%, respectively.
Popular Chinese concept stocks rose overall. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) rose more than 0.9% at the beginning of the session, fell 0.5% in midday trading after turning lower in early trading, and closed up slightly less than 0.1%, almost falling for two consecutive days. Chinese ETFs KWEB and CQQQ closed up about 0.9% and 1.2%, respectively. The three new car-making forces turned down at the beginning of the session, closing with NIO falling nearly 3%, Li Auto falling more than 2%, and Xiaopeng Motors, which fell nearly 1% in early trading, rose more than 1% after turning up at noon, in addition to Xiaomi powder rose more than 2%. Among other stocks, at the close, Station B rose nearly 5%, New Oriental rose nearly 3%, Pinduoduo, JD.com, and Tencent rose more than 1%, Baidu rose 0.7%, Alibaba rose nearly 0.4%, and NetEase fell more than 2%.
Among the more volatile stocks, Nike (NKE) closed up 3.4% after Bank of America downgraded it from neutral to buy, believing investors should buy the bottom, and biotech company Alpine Immune Sciences (ALPN) closed up 36.9% after Vertex Pharmaceuticals agreed to a $4.9 billion cash takeover, which represents a premium of about 67% to the value of the acquisition per share from Tuesday's close. Used car retailer CarMax (KMX), which had lower-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue and earnings, closed down 9.2%, while industrial and firmware dealership Fastenal (FAST), which had lower-than-expected revenue and earnings in the fiscal first quarter, closed down 6.5%.
In European stocks, the pan-European stock index retreated as soon as it rebounded on Wednesday. The Euro Stoxx 600 index closed down 0.4% at 504.55 points, updating its lowest closing level since March 18. Stock indexes of major European countries fell together, led by the Spanish stock index fell more than 1%, and the French stock index fell for five consecutive days and three days respectively, and the German, British and Italian stocks that rebounded on Wednesday retreated.
Among sectors, banks closed down more than 2.3% after the European Central Bank signaled that it would cut interest rates, leading the decline, the biggest daily decline in more than eight months, followed by the telecommunications sector falling nearly 2.2%, followed by Deutsche Telekom, which was affected by ex-dividend trading, tumbling 6.2%, while utilities and healthcare both rose 0.5%.
The two-year Treasury yield rose above 5.0% intraday for the first time in nearly five months, and the PPI turned lower after the release
After the release of the U.S. PPI, the U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury bond yield first accelerated downward, and turned down during the press conference held by European Central Bank President Lagarde, U.S. stocks fell 4.51% to refresh the daily low before trading, down about 3 basis points in the day, and then continued to rise, U.S. stocks turned up in early trading, and had tested 4.59% to approach the 4.60% mark, refreshing the high since November 14, 2023 for two consecutive days, rising more than 4 basis points in the day, and about 4.59% at the end of the bond market, up nearly 5 basis points in the day, rising for two consecutive days.
The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to the outlook for interest rates, was slightly more than 5.0% at the time of the PPI release, rising above the 5% integer psychological mark for the first time since November 14, 2023, hitting a new high since November 14 last year for two consecutive days, rising nearly 3 basis points in a day, and then quickly giving up the rise and turning down, and the decline expanded during Lagarde's speech, which broke through 4.92% to refresh the daily low, falling nearly 6 basis points in the day, and the intraday decline in U.S. stocks narrowed, and was about 4.60% at the end of the bond market , which fell about 1 basis point during the day and retreated after rebounding on Wednesday.
The U.S. dollar index turned lower after the PPI, then turned up and hit a new five-month high, and the yen hit a new low since 1990
The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks a basket of six major currencies such as the U.S. dollar against the euro, quickly turned down after the release of the U.S. PPI, and the U.S. stock market approached 105.00 at the beginning of the day to refresh the daily low, down 0.2% during the day, and continued to rebound during Lagarde's press conference, and the U.S. stock market rose above 105.50 after turning up in early trading, refreshing the high since November 14, 2023 for two consecutive days, rising nearly 0.3% during the day, and then continued to fall, and turned slightly lower at midday.
By the close of trading on Thursday, the U.S. dollar index was just below 105.30, up slightly during the day, and the Bloomberg dollar spot index, which tracks the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against 10 other currencies, rose less than 0.1% during the day, updating its highest level since the same period on November 13, 2023, and the U.S. dollar index both rose for two consecutive days and jumped after the PPI announcement.
Among the non-U.S. currencies, the euro rebounded against the U.S. dollar after the European Central Bank announced its decision, and the U.S. stock market was close to 1.0760 at the beginning of the day to refresh the daily high, up more than 0.1% in the day, and then quickly fell back and turned down, the U.S. stock market fell below 1.0700 in early trading, refreshing the low since February 14, down 0.4% in the day, and the U.S. stock market closed above 1.0720, down more than 0.1% in the day; The yen fell below 153.00 several times on Thursday, repeatedly refreshed the low level since 1990, the dollar against the yen rose above 153.00 at the beginning of the Asian market, and soon turned down after refreshing the daily low below 152.80, European stocks rose below 153.20 after the pre-market rally, European stocks turned down in early trading, the US PPI was close to 152.80 after the announcement, and then continued to rebound, the US stock rose above 153.30 after the morning turn, a new high since 1990 for the second consecutive day, and the US stock closed slightly below 153.30, up less than 0.1 during the day%。
The offshore yuan (CNH) fell to 7.2641 against the US dollar in early Asian trading, flat Wednesday's low since April 2, and maintained its rally after turning up, and the US PPI refreshed the daily high to 7.2494 after the announcement, up 147 points from the daily low, and at 4:59 Beijing time on the 12th, the offshore yuan was reported at 7.2558 yuan against the US dollar, up 66 points from the end of New York on Wednesday, rebounding after stopping three consecutive gains on Wednesday, and rising for the sixth day in the last eight trading days.
Bitcoin (BTC) European stocks rose above $71,200 in early trading, and some platforms rose above $71,300, returning to the intraday level on Tuesday, April 9, and then retreated, the U.S. PPI fell below $71,000 before the announcement, and regained $71,000 after the announcement, and the U.S. stock fell again to $70,000 in early trading, and fell below $69,700 to refresh the daily low, down more than $1,600 and more than 2% from the daily high, and the U.S. stock closed above $70,000, Some platforms are above $70,600, up more than 0.6% in the last 24 hours, and there is still a gap between Monday's rise above $72,700 and the intraday high since March 14.
Crude oil fell U.S. oil fell more than 1% to the second lowest this month
International crude oil futures turned lower intraday and failed to continue to rebound. When the Asian market refreshed the daily high, the United States WTI crude oil rose above $86.60, up above $90.90, Brent crude oil rose nearly 0.5% during the day, European stocks turned down before the day to maintain a downward trend, when the US stock market refreshed the daily low, the US oil fell below $84.90, down nearly 1.6% during the day, and the cloth oil fell below $89.40, down more than 1.2% during the day.
Eventually, crude oil, which rebounded on Wednesday, retreated, closing lower for the third day in the last four days, failing to stay close to the closing high set on Friday since October 20 last year. WTI crude oil futures for May delivery closed down $1.19, or 1.38%, at $85.02 a barrel, updating their lowest closing level since closing at $83.71 on April 1, while Brent crude futures for June delivery closed down $0.74, or about 0.92%, at $89.74 a barrel, just after recovering $90 on Wednesday.
London nickel fell 3%, London copper continued to fall from the nearly two-year high, gold rebounded, intraday rose nearly 2% to a record high
London base metals futures were mostly lower on Thursday. London nickel, which led the decline, fell about 3%, falling to a four-week high set by an eight-day winning streak. Lunxi, which has risen for seven consecutive days, fell about 1%, bidding farewell to the three-day streak since the end of January last year. London lead, which rose for three consecutive days to the highest level since the end of January, fell more than 1%. London copper and London aluminum fell for two consecutive days, continuing to fall from the highs since June 2022 and since late February last year, respectively. London zinc rose for four consecutive days, hitting a new high since April last year on three days.
New York gold futures rose for most of Thursday, European stocks turned down before the day to refresh the daily low of $2343.1, down more than 0.2% in the day, European stocks in the morning short-term after the overall upside, midday gains continued to expand. By the end of the day, COMEX June gold futures, which had retreated on Wednesday, closed up 1.03% at $2,372.7 an ounce, the highest closing record set on Tuesday for three consecutive days.
The gains in New York gold futures extended further after the close, and the U.S. stock rose above $2,390 at the end of the day, up nearly 2% in the day. Spot gold continued to rise in early U.S. stocks, with U.S. stocks rising above $2,374 at the end of the day, up nearly 1.8% during the day, and gold futures both refreshed their intraday all-time highs set on Tuesday, and U.S. stocks closed above $2,370, up about 1.7% during the day, setting a new record for the same period on Tuesday.
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