Inflation expectations have cooled, gold and silver prices have reached new highs, and commodity prices have risen

21st Century Business Herald reporter Weng Rongtao intern Zhang Xin reported from Guangzhou

During the week (March 10 to March 14), inflation expectations cooled, macro data improved, and speculative funds pushed up gold and silver futures prices. Commodity prices are rising. The stock index futures sector and the base metal sector led the gains, while the shipping sector closed down.

In terms of the domestic futures market, in the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil rose 0.45% and crude oil rose 1.81% for the week; In the black sector, iron ore rose 2.58% and coking coal rose 0.46% for the week; In the base metal sector, lithium carbonate fell 0.76% for the week, Shanghai nickel rose 3.17%, Shanghai zinc rose 0.75%, and Shanghai copper rose 2.72%; In the agricultural sector, palm oil rose 0.15% for the week, soybean meal rose 0.55%, and hogs rose 3.20%. In the shipping sector, the container shipping European line fell 7.55% for the week.

Hot spots in the trading market

Hot spot 1: The A-share futures index closed up across the board, and the style switched between high and low

Stock index futures rose across the board this week, and the market continued to diverge, unlike in the previous period, large-cap stocks outperformed small-cap stocks this week. The overall style of switching between high and low. Specifically, the main contract of the SSE 50 rose 2.44%, the main contract of CSI 300 rose 1.75%, the main contract of CSI 500 rose 1.73% for the week, and the main contract of CSI 1000 rose 1.70%.

Wang Peicheng of Orient Futures pointed out that the global stock market continued to fall this week, and the Chinese stock market still performed strongly. However, from the perspective of specific industries, there is an obvious switch between high and low. For example, food and beverage, coal and other sectors outperformed the market, while electronics, communications, media and other industries performed averagely. At the current location, market sentiment has shifted from AI-driven to macro focus. On the one hand, there have been many new changes in the field of consumption and people's livelihood in China, such as the issuance of maternity subsidies in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, which has triggered a rebound in market expectations for the consumption sector. On the other hand, the global rebalancing of funds brought about by the decline in US stocks continues.

Wang Yahang, a researcher at Huatai Futures, said that the Trump administration has frequently increased tariff policies in Europe, Canada and other regions recently, and there is a trend of expansion. The financial data is basically in line with expectations, and the follow-up should pay attention to the timing of the domestic economy's bottoming.

Wang Mengying of Nanhua Futures said that on the one hand, from the perspective of the futures index indicators, today's futures index basis and open interest PCR have risen significantly, showing that the market sentiment has improved, on the other hand, the central bank emphasized the opportunity to cut the reserve requirement and interest rates, and the birth subsidy policy across the country may be implemented, as well as the press conference of the State Council Information Office next Monday to introduce the relevant situation of boosting consumption, which has raised the market's expectations for favorable policies.

Looking ahead, Wang Peicheng believes that there are certain risks in the current stock index futures. He pointed out that the release of financial data in February showed an obvious phenomenon of government bond financing supporting social finance, and the endogenous financing demand for stocks and bonds other than government bonds remained sluggish. In terms of credit, the performance of medium and long-term loans to enterprises and residents was average. The recovery in real estate has not been effective in responding to residents' medium and long-term loans. There is an expectation gap between the domestic repair slope and the current equity market sentiment.

Wang Na of Guolian Futures believes that the People's Bank of China's policy expectation of "choosing the opportunity to cut the RRR and lowering interest rates", combined with the strategic deployment of the State Administration of Financial Supervision for consumer finance and the upcoming special meeting of the State Council to boost consumption, together constitute a dual policy combination of liquidity easing and demand-side improvement. Through the innovation of consumption scenarios and the path of credit expansion, new momentum has been injected into the economic recovery, which has strengthened the market's imagination for fundamental repair in the second quarter, making the stock index as a whole have obvious strong support.

Wang Yahang believes that the domestic policy tone is positive, and the superimposed technology narrative continues to strengthen, and the stock index price center is expected to rise.

Wang Mengying expects the stock index to fluctuate strongly in the future. But at the same time, she stressed that we should pay attention to potential risks, if the policy to boost consumption released at the press conference of the State Council Information Office on Monday is less than expected, coupled with the external disturbance caused by tariffs, the stock index may have a correction.

Hot spot 2: Gold prices hit new highs, breaking through the $3,000 mark intraday

This week, COMEX gold briefly broke through $3,000 per ounce and reached a maximum of $3,017.10 per ounce. As of March 14, London gold closed at $2,984.48 an ounce, and COMEX gold closed at $2,993.30 an ounce.

Wang Mao of Tsinghua University believes that the breakthrough of gold prices to new highs is driven by multiple factors. First, Trump began to impose tariffs on China, Europe, India, Vietnam, etc., and he was not soft on neighboring Canada and Mexico. This has exacerbated the turmoil in the world economy, and the risk aversion of funds has increased, and central banks have further increased their holdings of gold, driving the price of gold sharply. Second, the US government is considering postponing the payment of US debts. The Trump team is considering a moratorium on the payment of US debt. The cashing risk of U.S. Treasuries contributed to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar against gold.

Market analysts believe that the expectation of interest rate cuts from the United States has also driven the price of gold up. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday that U.S. wholesale inflation stalled in February as the cost of services fell. In addition, the consumer price index released on Wednesday came in lower than expected. All of the above news has raised expectations that the Fed may cut interest rates in the near future.

In addition, the continued record high gold price has dampened gold consumption, and the impact of consumer gold from India and China should be observed in the future. In India, Indian dealers sold gold at $39 per ounce below the official price this week, reaching its highest level in nearly eight months in an effort to stimulate consumption. India's gold imports in February were estimated to have fallen 85% from a year earlier, reaching their lowest level in 20 years, as demand fell from record highs.

Looking ahead, the World Gold Council believes that lower opportunity costs, record gold prices, stock market pullbacks and investor concerns about stagflation are the key factors driving gold-backed ETF inflows in North America. The expiration of gold-backed ETF options has triggered a large number of fund inflows, indicating that investors remain more bullish on gold.

According to the China Galaxy Securities Research Report, the three main medium-term logic of gold price increases: global gold ETF funds under the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut to increase their holdings of gold, central bank gold purchases under the influence of geopolitical conflicts, and credit depreciation hedging transactions caused by U.S. debt problems will continue to deduce and promote gold prices. At present, the valuation of the A-share gold sector is at a low level in recent years, and the record high of gold prices is expected to trigger the valuation repair of A-share gold stocks.

Debang Securities Research Report pointed out that in the long run, gold prices are expected to continue to increase driven by factors such as the expansion of the US dollar; In the short term, the continued increase in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and the short-term stimulus of recent CPI and other data are expected to make gold prices end their shocks and return to the upward trend, and gold and related individual stock allocation opportunities are expected to gradually appear.

Industry policy news

News 1: Financial data for February was released, and household and corporate credit is still cautious

The People's Bank of China released February financial data and social financing scale data on March 14.

In February 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 417.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%. The balance of broad money (M2) was 320.52 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 109.44 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%. The balance of money in circulation (M0) was 13.28 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%. In the first two months, the net cash injection was 456.2 billion yuan.

"The year-on-year decline in M1 is mainly due to the weakening of residents' demand deposits, rather than the lack of corporate activity, which may indicate that residents' asset allocation is shifting to the equity market." Zhao Wei, chief economist of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, pointed out that the year-on-year growth rate of new caliber M1 in February fell slightly by 0.3 percentage points to 0.1%, while the year-on-year growth rate of original caliber M1 rebounded by 3.2 percentage points to -2.5%. The difference was mainly due to the year-on-year decrease in the growth rate of residents' demand deposits by 5.1 percentage points to 4.6%. Combined with the "weak" data performance of household credit in January and February, it may reflect that funds are flowing into the securities market, which has recently recovered. Zhao Wei then carried out the analysis from the residential side and the enterprise side.

From the residential side, credit data confirms that residents' risk appetite is still prudent, and their willingness to avoid leverage is obvious. From January to February, residents' short-term loans increased by 189.8 billion yuan year-on-year, and medium- and long-term loans increased by 144.9 billion yuan year-on-year, highlighting residents' caution about debt. This trend not only continues the downward trajectory of marginal consumption propensity in the second half of 2024, but also confirms the decline in core CPI in February, indicating that it will take time for household confidence to recover.

Enterprises also showed a cautious attitude, with the total amount of medium and long-term loans from January to February increasing by 600 billion yuan year-on-year, and the continuous contraction of PPI restricted investment intentions. Although the medium- and long-term loans of enterprises showed a high growth trend in January, the data in February confirmed that this trend is unsustainable. PPI continues to be in the contraction range, compressing corporate profit margins, superimposed on external uncertainties, corporate capital expenditure remains a wait-and-see attitude.

Looking ahead, Zhao Wei believes that the growth rate of social finance in February has been supported by the volume of financial financing, and the adjustment of residents' asset structure has shown positive signals. However, the lag in the arrival of chemical debt funds (fiscal deposits increased by 1,637.4 billion yuan year-on-year in February) and weak credit demand indicate that the foundation for recovery is not yet solid. A more proactive fiscal policy may effectively break the current cycle of weak expectations. With the acceleration of the implementation of the fiscal policy of "increasing the intensity of expenditure and accelerating the pace of expenditure", it is expected that social finance will remain stable and rising, and the direct flow of fiscal funds to entities is expected to improve the cash flow of micro entities, thereby promoting credit stabilization.

CITIC Securities said that driven by the policy of boosting domestic demand at the decision-making level, the allocation of financial funds is expected to drive the improvement of financing demand for bank supporting projects, and at the same time, with the continuous promotion of enterprises to resume work after the holiday, the credit situation in March is expected to improve compared with February.

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, believes that with the continuous promotion of debt measures, the issuance of government bonds has formed an important support for the growth of social financing. At the same time, the lower cost of bond financing encourages enterprises to raise more funds through the bond market, which also promotes the sustained and rapid growth of the scale of social financing.

News 2: The General Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption"

In order to vigorously boost consumption, expand domestic demand in an all-round way, increase income and reduce burdens to enhance consumption capacity, create effective demand with high-quality supply, optimize the consumption environment and enhance consumption willingness, and solve the outstanding contradictions restricting consumption in a targeted manner. Beijing, March 16 (Xinhua) -- Recently, the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption" and issued a notice requiring all localities and departments to conscientiously implement it in light of actual conditions.

The action plan is clear, promote the reasonable growth of wage income, and broaden the channels of property income; optimize the supply of "one old and one young" services, expand cultural, sports and tourism consumption, promote ice and snow consumption, and develop inbound consumption; Increase support for the trade-in of consumer goods to better meet the demand for housing consumption and extend the automobile consumption chain.

In terms of protecting the rights and interests of rest and leave, the action plan is clear, and the paid annual leave system is strictly implemented. Encourage paid annual leave and small and long holidays to achieve flexible off-peak leave. The rights and interests of workers to rest and leave shall be protected in accordance with the law, and the working hours of workers shall not be extended in violation of the law. Encourage localities with the capacity to explore the establishment of spring and autumn vacations for primary and secondary schools in light of actual conditions.

We will study the establishment of a childcare subsidy system, expand the supply of educational resources for the net inflow of school-age population into cities and towns, and appropriately increase the basic pension for retirees...... The action plan focuses on issues such as medical care, education, and elderly care that the people are concerned about, and increases policy support to reduce people's worries.

In addition, according to the website of the State Council New Office, the Information Office of the State Council will hold a press conference at 3 p.m. on Monday, March 17, 2025, to invite Li Chunlin, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, and relevant responsible persons of the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the State Administration of Market Regulation to introduce the situation of boosting consumption and answer questions from reporters.

Looking ahead

Energy and chemical sector

Crude oil: On the supply and demand side, OPEC still maintained a strict production cut pattern in February, but the approaching OPEC production increase meeting still suppressed the space for oil prices. On the macro front, the US CPI data is lower than expected, but the sub-items show that the disinflation process has not been well sustained, and there is a possibility of adjustment for the "bailout". Oil prices are suppressed by many political expectations, unilateral prices are difficult to rebound sharply, the short-term strategy is mainly short-term and long-term positive sets, and the medium-term strategy is unilateral wait-and-see and wait for empty spots. (Minmetals Futures)

Black plates

Iron ore: On the supply side, the global shipment volume of iron ore in this period fell slightly, and the arrival volume of iron ore in 45 ports increased slightly month-on-month. On the demand side, the demand for the five major timber tables in this period increased month-on-month, and with the loosening of cost support, the profits of steel mills were acceptable, and the output of molten iron in this period increased slightly month-on-month. In terms of inventory, the total inventory of iron ore in 45 ports decreased slightly month-on-month, continuing the trend of destocking, and the total inventory began to increase. On the whole, the current profits of steel mills are acceptable, and steel mills still have room to increase production, coupled with the phased replenishment, iron ore is expected to form a period of depot, supporting the wide range of mine prices. However, due to the adjustment of the supply-side regulation policy of finished products in the later stage, the medium and long-term demand outlook for iron ore is weak. (Huatai Futures)

Non-ferrous metal plates

Shanghai lead: On the supply side, the primary lead smelter resumed production in the early stage, and the supply of electrolytic lead may continue to increase next week. The supply of secondary lead is unlikely to increase significantly or even decrease. The overall supply is affected by the dual impact of increased primary lead production and limited secondary lead, and there is uncertainty about the change. On the demand side, the current enthusiasm for lead ingot procurement is not good, and if the production and sales of downstream industries such as the automobile industry remain unchanged and do not improve significantly, it is difficult to significantly increase the demand for lead. Judging from the current data and market conditions, it is difficult to accurately estimate the strength and timing of demand improvement. Starting from the cost side, the processing fee of lead concentrate has decreased, which has formed a certain support for lead prices. The role of cost in supporting the price of lead will also change accordingly. Next week, the Shanghai lead market is likely to continue to fluctuate. (Ruida Futures)

Agricultural products sector

Soybean meal: At present, the spot price of soybean meal continues to fall at a high level, the price of soybean meal futures M2505 contract bottomed out, the closing price was temporarily blocked by the 5-day moving average, the trend is strong throughout the day, and the technical form, the 5-day and 20-day moving average formed a dead fork, in the short term, in the atmosphere of falling back at a high spot, the soybean meal futures price rebound or weakened, and the market outlook or around the 5-day moving average. (Sinolink Futures)

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