Lin Chen
Core viewpoint: We should seize the opportunity of the rapid development of the digital economy, break down the institutional and institutional obstacles that restrict the release of domestic demand potential, continuously expand effective demand, and help the sustained and healthy development of the economy.
■Lin Chen, Li Ruiqi
Expanding effective demand is the key to driving the economy to rebound, so solving the outstanding contradiction of insufficient effective demand has become the top priority of the current government's work.
As an important support for the transformation of old and new kinetic energy, the digital economy can improve production efficiency, optimize market matching, and promote technological innovation, which plays a key role in the creation, satisfaction and expansion of effective demand. It is necessary to seize the opportunity of the rapid development of the digital economy, break down the institutional and institutional obstacles that restrict the release of domestic demand potential, continuously expand effective demand, and promote the sustained and healthy development of the economy.
01 The main characteristics of the digital economy that distinguish it from the traditional economy
The mainland's digital economy is showing a trend of rapid growth, and the scale of the digital economy continues to expand. In 2022, the scale of the mainland's digital economy will reach 50.2 trillion yuan, a nominal increase of 10.3% year-on-year, becoming an important part of the national economy. The digital economy takes data as the key factor of production, and through the wide application of information technology, production and transactions are carried out on digital platforms such as the Internet and the Internet of Things, which has promoted profound changes in the mode of production and economic structure. Compared with the traditional economy, the digital economy has the following significant characteristics.
Automation is more thorough. The development of the digital economy has greatly promoted the progress and application of automation technology. First of all, in the traditional industrial era, automation mainly replaces repetitive and regular physical labor. In the era of the digital economy, automation technology is more thorough, capable of handling not only repetitive work, but also non-repetitive work, and making decisions on complex problems. The application of artificial intelligence and machine learning technology makes automation in the digital economy not only limited to simple task automation, such as data entry or repetitive operations on the production line, but also allows machines to imitate and learn human cognitive abilities for pattern recognition, predictive analysis and decision-making, so as to achieve automation in R&D, production, management and other links. Secondly, the application scope of automation technology is also expanding, from manufacturing to service, from logistics to finance, all fields are experiencing automation changes. More thorough automation can improve production efficiency, reduce production costs, and provide new impetus for economic growth.
Information matching is more complete. Another distinctive feature of the digital economy is the efficient flow and precise matching of information. On the one hand, relying on technologies such as the Internet, big data, and cloud computing, the performance of data collection, storage, processing, and processing has been greatly improved, which has greatly improved the immediacy and accessibility of information. On the other hand, the application of personalized recommendation algorithms makes information matching more accurate and complete. After analyzing and processing consumers' behavioral habits and preferences, producers can accurately produce and supply according to these demand information, so as to push products and services that best meet consumer needs and improve the efficiency of resource allocation.
02Mechanism for expanding demand in the digital economy
The development of the digital economy is closely linked to the growth of effective demand. The digital economy can amplify effective demand through a variety of mechanisms, among which information matching and the application of new technologies are two key factors. These mechanisms not only promote consumption growth, but also stimulate investment vitality, which in turn stimulates economic growth.
Information matching improves consumption matching and stimulates consumer demand. Digital technology can improve the matching of information between supply and demand in the consumer sector. First, information matching can provide personalized and customized services. The information matching mechanism under the digital economy can achieve accurate analysis and prediction of consumer needs, so that consumers can more accurately find products and services that meet their needs, and improve the matching degree and satisfaction of consumption. This kind of improvement not only promotes the growth of consumption, but also promotes the upgrading of consumption structure. Second, information matching can improve information transparency and efficiency. The integrity of information matching can reduce the problem of information asymmetry, help consumers make more informed consumption decisions, and help enterprises better grasp market demand. Third, information matching can promote market competition. Information matching improves the degree of consumption matching, pushes back enterprises to continuously carry out technological innovation and improve the quality of products and services, further stimulates consumption potential, expands consumer demand, and forms a virtuous circle.
The technological revolution has spurred the demand for investment. The digital economy originates from the technological revolution represented by the Internet, big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and blockchain, and at the same time, the evolution of the technological revolution has further promoted the high-quality development of the digital economy. From the perspective of the history of the industrial revolution, large-scale technological progress can effectively stimulate investment demand. For enterprises, the application of new technologies can significantly improve production efficiency, improve product and service quality, and enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises. Every time a new technology comes out, it can open up new market areas, create new consumer demand, and promote the digital transformation and development of traditional industries. Businesses have an incentive to upgrade technology and equipment, creating a demand for investment in new technologies. For the government, the development of new technologies requires the construction of supporting new infrastructure, such as the promotion of 5G communication networks requires the construction of a large number of base stations, and the construction of smart cities requires the deployment of Internet of Things devices. The government should appropriately deploy new infrastructure construction ahead of time in a foreseeable manner to ensure that digital infrastructure can adapt to future technological changes and meet the needs of long-term development, which is conducive to seizing new opportunities for the development of the digital economy and providing a solid foundation for the sustained growth of the digital economy. Effective government investment can lead to the expansion of private sector investment, forming a virtuous economic cycle.
03 To release the potential of domestic demand, it is necessary to break through several blockages
Since the beginning of the year, the domestic economy has continued to recover steadily, the consumer market has gradually recovered, and domestic demand has maintained a good recovery momentum. In the long run, the mainland's economic situation has generally maintained a stable and positive trend, but it is still necessary to be vigilant and respond to various internal and external risks and challenges. Domestically, structural problems still exist, and there are blockages in the domestic circulation. On the international front, the global economic recovery is unstable and uneven, trade protectionism and unilateralism are on the rise, and geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe and the Middle East are intensifying. These uncertainties are intertwined and have a complex impact on the stability and growth of the mainland's economy. Domestic demand is an important driving force for the mainland's economic growth, and a strong domestic demand market can effectively absorb and diversify various risks. To make full use of the dividends of the digital economy, stimulate the potential of domestic demand, and enhance economic resilience, we need to break through the following key blockages.
First, it is necessary to optimize the structure of income distribution and increase the disposable income of residents. Income distribution is an important link linking production and consumption, and uneven income distribution is an important factor restricting the expansion of domestic demand. While the digital economy has enlarged the overall "cake", it has also brought new opportunities and challenges to how to distribute the "cake" fairly and reasonably. First of all, it is necessary to adhere to the distribution system in which distribution according to work is the mainstay and various distribution methods coexist. Increase the proportion of labor remuneration in the primary distribution, improve the mechanism for the remuneration of various factors of production to be determined by the market, especially pay attention to the standardization and improvement of the distribution system of data elements, and distribute the dividends of data elements. Second, through tax regulation, social security, transfer payments, and other means, the income distribution gap should be adjusted, the income level of low-income groups should be raised, the proportion of middle-income groups should be expanded, and an olive-shaped distribution structure with a large middle and small ends should be formed. Third, we should encourage the digital transformation of traditional industries, optimize the industrial structure, create more high-income jobs, encourage the development of digital finance, increase the penetration rate of financial services, reduce transaction costs, and promote the growth of residents' income. Finally, it is necessary to properly handle the relationship between the market and the government, optimize the ratio between the government's disposable resources and residents' disposable income, and expand effective demand.
Second, we must guide the healthy development of capital and improve consumer welfare. One of the characteristics of the digital economy is that fixed costs are higher than variable costs, which can easily lead to a small number of large enterprises occupying a dominant position in the market, increasing the risk of monopolistic behavior, and harming the fairness of the market and the interests of consumers. First of all, guide the healthy development of capital in the digital economy. With the development of the digital economy, the market structure and corporate behavior are also constantly changing, and anti-monopoly laws also need to keep pace with the times to adapt to the emerging market environment and regulate and guide the development of capital. On February 7, 2021, the Anti-Monopoly Commission of the State Council issued the Guidelines on Anti-Monopoly in the Field of Platform Economy to promote the standardized, orderly, innovative and healthy development of the platform economy. Second, we should establish an ecological environment that tolerates innovation and encourages competition. The government should implement different management and guidance strategies at different stages of development of the digital economy. In the nascent era of the digital economy, openness and inclusiveness are key. Policies should be relatively loose and reduce unnecessary interventions, which can help stimulate innovation potential and promote diversification. With the development and maturity of the digital economy, it is particularly important to regulate industry behavior. The government enacts laws and regulations to prevent monopoly and unfair competition to ensure the healthy and orderly development of the digital economy. Finally, protect consumer rights. Through the regulation of monopolistic behavior, platforms are prevented from using their monopoly position to compress consumer welfare. By strengthening the formulation and enforcement of laws and regulations, we will regulate the collection and use of consumer data by improper means, protect consumers' privacy and personal information security, promote the development of the platform economy in the direction of openness and transparency, and improve consumer welfare.
Third, we must guide market expectations and enhance investment and consumer confidence. Market expectations are the bridge between current economic conditions and future economic activity. First, governments and regulators should improve the transparency and predictability of macroeconomic policies, stabilize market expectations, and boost business and consumer confidence. The digital economy provides accurate data support for macroeconomic policies, and the government can use big data analysis and other means to more accurately grasp the situation of economic operation, supplemented by regular economic reports, policy interpretations and forward-looking guidance to help market players better understand policy intentions and economic trends. Secondly, under the wave of digital economy, we should promote the rapid development of new technologies, new industries and new business formats, bring convenience to consumers, and provide investors with new investment areas and growth points, which is conducive to stimulating market vitality, enhancing investment and consumption confidence, and promoting the growth of investment and consumption.
Fourth, we must alleviate digital inequality and promote equal consumption. Digital inequality has become a global social problem. The gap between urban and rural areas and between different income groups in terms of access to digital resources and utilization capacity has limited the release of domestic demand potential, and the problem of digital divide has become increasingly prominent. First, we need to strengthen the inclusion and diversity of digital design. Enterprises are encouraged to develop digital products and services that meet the needs of different groups of people, especially the needs of special groups such as the elderly and the disabled. Second, vigorously carry out digital skills training programs. Improve the digital literacy of residents, especially in remote and poor areas, and ensure that everyone has equal access to the benefits of the digital economy. Finally, implement digital poverty alleviation strategies and build digital villages. For example, through e-commerce platforms, the sales channels of agricultural products and handicrafts will be smoothed, jobs will be increased, and farmers' incomes will be increased, so as to expand consumer demand in rural areas.
(Lin Chen, Executive Dean, National Institute of Development and Strategy, Renmin University of Chinese; Li Ruiqi, Ph.D. candidate, School of Applied Economics, Renmin University of Chinese)
Chief Producer丨Wang Hui and Che Haigang
Producer丨Li Piguang, Wang Yu, Liu Weimin
Editor-in-Chief丨Mao Jinghui Editor丨Zou Duo