A quarter of the way through 2024 has passed, looking back at the first quarter, China's economy has delivered a good report card, showing a positive upward trend. However, there are also "hidden worries" under the good results, and how to answer the questions about China's economy in the future needs to be further explored and explored.
According to Xinhua News Agency, in order to analyze the current economic situation and put forward opinions and suggestions for the next step of economic work, on the afternoon of April 8, Li Qiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and premier of the State Council, presided over a symposium of experts and entrepreneurs on the economic situation to listen to the voices of experts and entrepreneurs and discuss them. At the meeting, the participants analyzed the contradictions and problems existing in the current economic operation from different angles, and "checked the pulse and found the way" for further improving macroeconomic policies and doing a good job in economic work.
On the afternoon of April 8, Li Qiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and premier of the State Council, presided over a forum of experts and entrepreneurs on the economic situation in Beijing to listen to opinions and suggestions on the current economic situation and the next step of economic work. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Liu Bin
Who are the 8 experts and entrepreneurs participating in the conference?
According to the Xinhua News Agency, Zhang Yuyan, Wu Ge, Peng Wensheng, Bai Chongen, Gu Jie, Zhang Shaoming, Li Xiande, and Jiang Yingwu spoke at the forum.
Who are these 8 experts and entrepreneurs? Nandu reporters inquired and learned that Zhang Yuyan is a member of the Faculty of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics, dean of the School of International Political Economics of the University of Social Sciences, and president of the China Society of World Economics; Wu Ge is the chief economist of Changjiang Securities, who has worked for a long time in the monetary policy department of the People's Bank of China and an economist at the International Monetary Fund; Peng Wensheng is the chief economist of CICC; Bai Chongen is the dean of the School of Economics and Management of Tsinghua University; Zhang Shaoming is the chairman of the central enterprise China Iron and Steel Research Institute Group Co., Ltd.; Li Xiande is the chairman of JinkoSolar Co., Ltd., a giant in the photovoltaic industryGu Jie is the CEO of Shanghai Fourier Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd., a high-tech enterprise in the field of intelligent robotics, and Jiang Yingwu is the party secretary and chairman of Beijing Jinyu Group, a state-owned enterprise mainly engaged in the production of building materials and the investment, development and management of real estate.
To sum up, it can be seen that the first four are economists who have studied the macroeconomic field, and the last four are first-line entrepreneurs, including central state-owned enterprises and private enterprises, involving traditional industries, new energy, artificial intelligence, and real estate. These areas are also important driving forces for China's economy.
On April 8, in the intelligent workshop of Zhejiang Meilun Elevator Co., Ltd. in Keqiao, Shaoxing, automation equipment was producing elevator accessories. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Xu Yu
Are the economic figures in the first quarter impressive?
At this symposium, Li Qiang pointed out that we insist on seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, establishing first and then breaking down, focusing on the implementation of macro policies, highlighting the work of stabilizing expectations, stabilizing growth and stabilizing employment, and continuing to work changing the mode, adjusting the structure, improving the quality and increasing the efficiency, and the policy effect continues to appear.
For the above affirmative statement, the reporter found that some economic experts also have similar views. Xu Xianchun, director of the China Economic and Social Data Research Center and former deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF) held at the end of last month that from the perspective of production, the economy is expected to maintain steady growth in the first quarter of 2024, of which the growth rate of industrial added value will continue to rise in 2023, the added value of the construction industry is expected to maintain rapid growth, and the growth rate of added value of the service industry may decline, but it will still maintain rapid growth. From the perspective of demand, in the first quarter of 2024, the contribution rate of consumer demand may decline, but it will still play a major role in driving economic growth, and the growth of new consumption formats is expected to accelerate. From the perspective of income, residents' incomes are expected to continue to grow steadily, and the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size will achieve relatively rapid growth. From the perspective of prices, consumer prices turned from falling to rising, the increase in core CPI rebounded, and the producer price index of industrial producers continued to decline.
Does this mean that the mainland's economic performance in the first quarter was outstanding? The economic data for the first quarter is about to be released, and it is worth looking forward to.
Li Qiang pointed out at the meeting that at the same time, we should be soberly aware that the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the current external environment are rising, and the problems existing in economic operation still need to be solved.
China's economic operation is also under pressure, and many experts and scholars have also discussed this. Wu Ge, who was invited to participate in the conference, mentioned at the China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF) held earlier: "The current upward revision of the short-term economic growth target shows that the 5% growth target set at the beginning of the year can be basically achieved in the first quarter, but there is still a gap between the macro and micro experiences." ”
The busy Shandong port of Qingdao Port Qianwan Container Terminal. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Li Ziheng
What should we focus on next?
Li Qiang pointed out that the mainland's development has a solid foundation, many advantages, and huge potential, and the long-term positive trend will not change, and we are confident that we have the ability to maintain sustained and healthy economic development.
Li Qiang stressed: To consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery, it is necessary to pay close attention to the detailed implementation of the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and the National People's Congress and the National People's Congress (NPC). It is necessary to continue to consolidate the foundation and cultivate the yuan, coordinate the steady growth and increase the stamina, give full play to the leading role of policies, further stimulate the vitality of business entities, and enhance the endogenous driving force for development. It is necessary to strengthen the combination effect, enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation, and systematically solve some key and difficult problems. It is necessary to pay attention to precise policies, grasp the key to scientific and technological innovation to promote industrial innovation and the prominent contradiction of insufficient effective demand, and improve the effectiveness of macro policy transmission to micro level. It is necessary to resolutely adhere to the bottom line, treat both the symptoms and the root causes, and resolve risks in key areas. It is necessary to put the work of people's livelihood in a prominent position, look at the problem of making up for the shortcomings of people's livelihood with development thinking, and do a good job in people's livelihood one by one.
Judging from the above discussion, the reporter of Nandu paid attention to the fact that next, stimulating the vitality of business entities, enhancing the consistency of macro policies, seizing scientific and technological innovation to promote industrial innovation, solving the problem of insufficient effective demand, resolving risks in key areas, and doing a good job in people's livelihood will become the focus of efforts.
In addition, the reporter from Nandu paid attention to the fact that at this symposium, Li Qiang also put forward some hopes for experts and entrepreneurs. Li Qiang hopes that experts and scholars will take root in reality, conduct in-depth research, and provide more intellectual support for promoting economic and social development. It is hoped that the majority of entrepreneurs will focus on innovation and development, actively explore the market, dare to dare to invest, and run the enterprise well in a down-to-earth manner.
The plan of the year lies in the spring, and the economic trend in the first quarter is related to the whole year. The fact that the forum was held at this time is of great significance for guiding what should be done in the economic work in the future.
Written by: Yang Wenjun, trainee reporter of Nandu, from Beijing