【Disk Analysis】
Entering April, the external market trend opened a shock mode, when the U.S. stock market was only one step away from 40,000 points, there was a turbulence in economic data, resulting in the external market trend is also up and down, and on the whole, it fell into a range-bound market, and commodities such as gold and copper continued to hit new highs. JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists suggested a low-priced options strategy for the rebound of Chinese stocks, and said that it may revise its forecast for China's economic growth in the first half of the year upward. With the advent of the first quarter report test, the situation of greater pressure on corporate profitability in the first quarter is obvious, and patiently waiting for the release of performance pressure in the first quarter, there will inevitably be a number of new funds entering the market.
Riding a bull and watching a bear found that the high prosperity of domestic tourism during the Qingming holiday continued, the per capita consumption of tourists exceeded the level of the same period in 2019, and the recovery of consumption power was better than expected. In this year's government work report, it is mentioned in the section of "focusing on expanding domestic demand" that it is necessary to promote the steady growth of consumption and actively cultivate new consumption growth points such as smart homes, cultural and entertainment tourism, sports events, and domestic "trendy products". Based on the continuous launch of high-quality cultural tourism products on the supply side, the strengthening of marketing, and the increasingly rigid leisure and experience on the demand side, we continue to be optimistic that tourism consumption will penetrate into the masses.
The three major indexes opened mixed, the stocks in the two cities rose and fell, and the theme sector of solid-state batteries, sodium batteries, organic silicon and other sectors performed strongly, and aquatic products, chicken, pork and other sectors performed poorly. Solid-state battery concept stocks opened higher, Sanxiang New Materials hit the daily limit, Xiangfenghua rose by more than 15%, Jiayuan Technology, Ruitai New Materials and other stocks rose by more than 5%, Zhiji Automobile officially launched the industry's first quasi-900V ultra-fast charging solid-state battery - the first generation of light-year solid-state battery, and the first to ride Zhiji's new sedan Zhiji L6. Since March, the global supply of wood pulp has been affected by the strike in Finland, the price of wood pulp has continued to rise, and the paper industry has ushered in a new round of price increases.
The intelligent driving sector continued to be strong, Xingmin Zhitong 2 boards, Guangzhi Technology, Daotong Technology and other stocks rose more than 5%, and Toyota's global model intelligent driving solution will adopt the "Toyota + Huawei + Momenta" tripartite joint solution model. Power stocks were active again, Xichang Electric Power 2 boards, Mindong Electric Power, Huayin Power and other stocks rose more than 5%, led by the expectation of downward coal prices, 1Q24 thermal power performance continued to improve, and continued to turn losses year-on-year. The tourism sector intraday movement rose, Emeishan A straight line limit, Zhangjiajie, Xi'an tourism, etc. quickly followed, Qingming holiday tourism consumption maintained rapid growth, especially the increase in per capita tourism expenditure, benefiting from the good performance of the Qingming holiday tourism consumption data, the market may give May Day and summer more optimistic growth expectations.
Low-altitude economic concept stocks rebounded, Zongshen Power rose in a straight line, and many stocks such as Shuangyi Technology and Guangzhi Technology rose by more than 10% to build two low-altitude economic core cities in Hefei and Wuhu, and the scale of low-altitude economy will strive to reach 80 billion yuan. Rare earth permanent magnet concept stocks rose rapidly, Galaxy Magnet rose nearly 20%, Keheng shares, Shenghe Resources and other stocks rose more than 5%, since the end of March, rare earth prices have continued to rebound, and terbium oxide has risen by more than 10%. Game stocks rebounded in the afternoon, Xunyou Technology rose more than 10%, Electric Soul Network, Dasheng Culture and other stocks rose more than 5%, and Blizzard and NetEase will officially announce the resumption of cooperation tomorrow. In addition, the National Press and Publication Administration yesterday released information on the approval of imported online games in April, with 14 games approved in April, and a total of 46 games approved in 2024.
Market:
GEM:
【Market Prediction】
The Shanghai Composite Index did not turn red strongly after opening low on Tuesday, and the whole day was dominated by underwater shocks, and after entering April, the trend of heavyweight stocks was significantly worse, and financial stocks did not have an effective means of protecting the disk. Entering April, the market trend is relatively poor, and funds are biased towards commodities, that is, they mainly choose safe-haven products, and the gradual release of the first quarter report will also change the investment direction of the market. Next, pay attention to whether the Shanghai Composite Index can stabilize above 3040 points.
The GEM index performed relatively strongly on Tuesday, and the whole day was dominated by red disk shocks, although there was no one-sided general rise in the stocks of the two cities, but the rise and fall was the main theme of the whole day, which was also a better disk rhythm. For the time being, the index has not completely deteriorated, but the funds have begun to have no new offensive direction, which is also related to the internal and external financial environment. With the announcement of the first quarter financial report, institutional funds are bound to choose a new direction again, which is also a new opportunity in the second quarter. Next, pay attention to whether the GEM index can stabilize above 1800 points.
【Gold Rush Plan】
In early trading, a number of first-quarter performance pre-increase stocks rose sharply, Xinnong shares rose by the limit, Changying Precision, Quecway Communications rose by more than 10%, and Jiangsu Guoxin, Chenming Paper, and Lotus Health rose to the top. On the news side, Xinnong announced a 159% increase in net profit in the first quarter, Changying Precision announced a 530% increase in net profit in the first quarter, a net profit increase of 80%-90% in the first quarter announced by Quwei Communication, a 118% increase in net profit in the first quarter of Chenming Paper, and a 114% increase in the net profit of Lotus Health in the first quarter. The release of the first quarterly report data will affect the direction of institutional funds to adjust positions and exchange shares, and there will also be the birth of some bull stocks and the elimination of some poor performance stocks.
The concepts of solid-state batteries, tourism, and organic silicon in the theme sector are the main participating sectors in the net inflow of funds, while the concepts of aquatic products, oil, and ships are the sectors with relatively large net outflows. Riding bulls and watching bears found that during the 2024 Qingming Festival holiday, the national cultural and tourism market will be safe, stable and orderly. According to the data center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, there were 119 million domestic tourists traveling during the three-day holiday, an increase of 11.5% over the same period in 2019 on a comparable basis, and domestic tourists spent 53.95 billion yuan on travel, an increase of 12.7% over the same period in 2019. The number of inbound and outbound tourists was close to the level of the same period in 2019, with 1.041 million inbound tourists and 992,000 outbound tourists.
During the Ching Ming holiday, domestic local travel and peripheral travel orders increased by 211% and 350% year-on-year respectively, and the number of ticket orders for the Qingming holiday in mountain scenic spots increased by 770% year-on-year. Excursions have become the first choice for many people's vacations.
The popularity of outbound travel during the Qingming May Day holiday is heating up. Tongcheng Travel data shows that as of March 27, the overall booking volume of travel during the May Day holiday has increased nearly threefold month-on-month, and the number of outbound travel bookings has increased significantly. According to Airbnb China's data, the search popularity of outbound travel during this year's Qingming Festival holiday has exceeded 2.5 times that of the same period last year, and the search popularity of destinations in the Asia-Pacific region has increased by 3.5 times year-on-year.
In 2024, the government's work orientation will continue to focus on life service industries such as cultural tourism in the consumption field, and it is expected that the policy to promote consumption in the cultural tourism industry is expected to continue, which is good for catering, scenic spots, hotels, duty-free and other industries in the cultural tourism industry chain. The support of the visa-free policy in the mainland will further stimulate the growth of tourism consumption demand in the mainland, and the recovery of international travel is expected to accelerate. Holiday consumption boost + emotion/scene driven, the May Day holiday will further stimulate residents' willingness to travel and consume, and is expected to continue the strong recovery of the tourism sector, and relevant listed companies will continue to maintain a high year-on-year growth rate and continue to obtain excess returns.