An analysis report by a U.S. think tank debunked the old bottom of the sanctions war between China and the West, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen reiterated that it cannot "decouple" from China, which suddenly hit the deep fear in Europe, and European arms dealers took the lead in bowing their heads and began to hoard a large amount of China's gunpowder cotton.
On the 8th, after concluding her five-day visit to China, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen held a press conference in Beijing, where she reiterated that she "does not seek decoupling from China" and pointed out that China and the United States have close economic ties and that decoupling will have disastrous consequences. Wanting to "decouple" from China but not being able to do so is not only the status quo facing the United States, but also the status quo facing Europe.
As early as early March, news broke out in the European Union that Europe was facing a shortage of shells due to the lack of specific nitrocellulose needed to make gunpowder. At that time, French President Emmanuel Macron was adding fuel to the fire of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, claiming that NATO would not rule out sending troops to Ukraine, but this sudden bad news poured cold water on him.
More than seventy percent of the nitrocellulose cotton that the EU lacks is imported from China, and most of the nitrocellulose produced in China comes from Xinjiang cotton, so it is obvious that Europe's current desperate situation is caused by blind "decoupling" from China. In early March, Thierry Breton, the EU's commissioner for the internal market, said confidently that the Nordic countries had found a substitute for Chinese cotton, and promised to increase the EU's shell production capacity to 1.5 million to 1.7 million by the end of this year.
A month has passed, and the progress of the EU has not yet been reported, Yellen's words woke up the dreamers, and European arms dealers began to hoard Chinese cotton in large quantities, this time not because they were afraid that Western control measures would become stricter, but because they were afraid that China would in turn choke their necks. According to a report by the Financial Times on the 8th, as Ukraine's demand for ammunition soars, European arms dealers urgently need to expand production capacity to meet demand, but aside from the already tight "decoupling" measures in their own countries, the deterioration of EU-China relations is likely to trigger China's countermeasures and prompt China to restrict material exports. In order to prevent problems before they occur, the arms dealers had no choice but to stock up in advance, and it is understood that some people had already hoarded stocks that could be consumed for three years.
Recently, as the West has frequently intervened in the Taiwan and South China Sea issues and formed an alliance to strangle China, there has been more and more discussion about China's possible countermeasures against the West. The Atlantic Council, a US think tank, published a report in early April that exposed the West's old roots. Using the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a model, the report analyzes how much loss the G7 will face if Chinese mainland launches countermeasures against the G7 over the Taiwan issue.
The conclusion shows that China can not only impose tariffs, impose import bans, boycott and inspect products, but also hold "key commodity trump cards" such as rare earths and clean energy. In addition, trillions of dollars worth of import and export trade and investment assets of China and the G7 will also be affected, and if China retaliates, about $358 billion of the G7's exports to China will not be guaranteed.
Nitrocell cotton, like rare earths, is of great strategic importance to the West, but it is also very short, so the ban on China in these areas is like a sharp sword that hurts others and hurts itself. Yellen's "decoupling" between China and the United States will bring disastrous consequences, not only because of the peak of US debt and the stagnation of the economic cycle, but also because China not only has many trump cards, but also has not made any moves.
Europe is different from the United States, the United States still has oil and gas resources, as well as dollar hegemony, even if it is deeply involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it can also use the hand of Europe to hide in the United States, and finally be able to get out perfectly. But Europe is not only responsible for its own energy crisis, but also has to deal with the immediate threat and danger of spillover from the Russia-Ukraine war. Moreover, even the United States cannot afford to decouple from China, let alone Europe.
In the final analysis, the root of Europe's lack of nitrocellulose lies in its insistence on interfering in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and cooperating with the United States to contain China, which essentially serve US hegemony.