Recently, the domestic gold market has been hot again, and the price of each gram of gold sold by well-known domestic merchants has risen to the level of six or seven hundred yuan. This reminds me of the 2008 global financial crisis, when the price of gold soared to an all-time high of nearly $2,000 per gram.
With the ever-changing economic situation, the short-term fluctuations in the price of gold have brought infinite surprises and annoyances to investment. However, in the long run, we need to have a deeper understanding of the real reasons behind gold price fluctuations, which can help us make more sound investment decisions.
First of all, it should be pointed out that the psychological activity of "chasing the rise and killing the fall" is relatively common in any asset class investment field. Once the price rises to the eye, it is difficult for investors to resist the temptation to "not buy" and hope to continue to make more money, and at the same time, once the price falls, it is difficult for them to resist the impulse to "sell" for fear of greater losses.
To a certain extent, this psychology may exacerbate short-term fluctuations in asset prices. However, from the perspective of the macroeconomic situation, the long-term trend of gold prices is still affected by a variety of deep-seated factors.
Second, unlike other commodities, gold, as a safe-haven asset, is closely related to the global macroeconomic and financial environment. During the 2008 financial crisis, the global economic outlook suddenly darkened due to the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, and central banks began to mint coins to expand the money supply, which raised inflation concerns and greatly increased the safe-haven value of gold, thereby pushing up its price.
At present, with the escalation of the trade war between China and the United States and the weak economic performance of some developed countries, the relative attractiveness of gold as a safe asset has risen again, which is one of the important reasons for the recent price recovery.
A number of changes in the domestic macroeconomic environment have similarly affected the price of gold. For example, since the strengthening of real estate regulation for more than a year, housing prices in many places have shown a downward trend, which may stimulate certain investment demand to turn to financial products such as gold.
At the same time, the long-term decline in the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has also increased the relative domestic purchasing power of gold in US dollar terms, which has promoted buying. In addition, summer is the peak season for gold consumption, which also pushes up the current gold price to a certain extent.
Of course, investing in gold is subject to the same risk of price volatility as any other commodity. In the short term, gold prices may still be affected by various market factors, and there will be higher and lower volatility.
And at this stage, the central banks do not seem to have further obvious signs of releasing water, if the economic trend has improved significantly, global inflation concerns have been reduced, then gold's safe-haven properties are relatively reduced, and prices may fall in the short term.
Overall, in the long run, due to various macro risks such as economic slowdown and trade frictions, the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven category will continue to increase in the coming period. However, in the short term, prices may still face volatility.
The most rational way is to diversify according to personal risk appetite and financial situation, and should not chase too much or rely on short-term fluctuations in the hope of making a lot of money. At the same time, it is necessary to understand the difference in risk cost between different types of products, and choose low-risk regular wealth management or financial management to dynamically manage gold investment. Only by starting from a rational and long-term perspective can we obtain stable returns.
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