According to reports by Israel's "Izvestia" and other media outlets, from the evening of 6 April to the early morning of 7 April, without warning, Israel abruptly withdrew its troops from southern Gaza, leaving only one brigade to maintain the strategic passage opened since the outbreak of the war.
The Netanyahu government's decision to withdraw troops was made amid a pledge of retaliation against Israel by the Iranian side. Therefore, there is a view in the arena of public opinion that Israel has "coaxed" and that Israel has lost the war in Gaza.
However, my personal opinion is that Israel's abrupt withdrawal is nothing more than a stopgap measure by the Netanyahu government, a "temporary refuge", to ease political pressure and respond to possible retaliatory actions by Iran. At the same time, it may also be intended to "lure the snake out of the hole" and "induce" Iran to join the war.
First, it is necessary to ease the pressure of international public opinion and give an explanation to the United States
After insisting on attacking Rafah, the last stronghold of Hamas, and bombing the Iranian embassy in Syria, Biden and Netanyahu have serious differences. To this end, during Thursday's call, Biden gave Netanyahu an "ultimatum".
During the call, Biden asked Israel to ensure that humanitarian access to the Gaza Strip is open, or the U.S.-Israel relationship will be reconsidered. To put it bluntly, this is already a very heavy word. After all, Israel needs American asylum.
In fact, Biden's tough attitude towards Israel is also a last resort. This is because almost one-sided international public opinion has "affected" the United States. Moreover, the rigid need to win over Muslim voters in the general election also makes Biden have to make a "gesture".
It is also reported that negotiations between Israel and Hamas have resumed in Egypt at the same time as Israel withdraws its troops. Moreover, in addition to Qatar and Egypt, CIA Director Burns will also personally participate.
Obviously, Israel's withdrawal of troops has the meaning of "giving an explanation to the United States," and at the same time, it can also ease the pressure of international public opinion.
Second, strengthen domestic defenses in response to possible retaliation from Iran
On April 1, Israel dispatched F-35 stealth fighters and fired six missiles to completely destroy the consular building of the Iranian Embassy in Syria, killing seven Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers and six Syrians.
In the aftermath of the attack on the embassy, Iran's top brassips, including Iran's Supreme Spiritual Leader Ayatollah Ali Ali Khamenei and President Raisi, vowed to make Israel pay.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement on the 6th, promising the Iranian people that they would take revenge on Israel. The chief of the general staff of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, Bagheri, said that retaliatory actions would be taken in due course to make Israel regret its actions.
Khamenei's military adviser and former commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Salawi, warned on the 7th that Israel's embassies and consulates are no longer safe. The resistance is ready to wait and see what will happen.
Judging from the continued statements of Iran's high-level leaders, Iran's retaliatory actions seem to be "on the bow". Against this backdrop, Israel has temporarily closed 28 embassies and consulates abroad, just in case. The withdrawal of troops from the Gaza Strip is also intended to strengthen internal defenses.
Third, the "withdrawal" may also have the tactical consideration of "luring the snake out of the hole".
After half a year of war, the IDF has besieged the main forces of Hamas forces in the Rafah area of southern Gaza. This is a critical moment for both sides. But politically and tactically, Israel is more difficult.
Politically speaking, the pressure exerted by the international community on Israel is unprecedentedly strong, even so strong that even the United States cannot withstand it. So, despite the fact that the Israeli government has already approved the IDF's battle plan, Netanyahu has never given the final order to attack.
From a tactical point of view, most of the Hamas forces, which have no way to retreat, have been "broken into pieces" and "integrated" with the Palestinian people, forming a state of "silence". Under such circumstances, if Israel were to attack rashly, it would not only be attacked by surprise, but would also cause more injuries to innocent civilians.
Once it is discovered that Israel has withdrawn, it is possible that Hamas militants, who are holding up in tunnels and blending into the crowd, will come out and operate. At that point, the IDF and intelligence agencies will be able to carry out attacks through long-range strikes, known as the "lure the snake out of the hole" tactic.
Fourth, the "withdrawal" may also be a "new bait" thrown by Israel to Iran
Israel's attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria was not untargeted, but strategic. First, Iran can be forced to take matters into its own hands against Israel. Second, it is intended to bind the United States to this Middle East war.
Embassies abroad are often considered an extension of a country's sovereignty. Therefore, if the embassy is attacked, it will normally react, at least it will not go unnoticed. And for Iran and Israel, which are hostile countries, reciprocal retaliation or war for this makes sense.
Israel is seen as the backbone of the United States in the geopolitics of the Middle East, so the relationship between the two countries is a strategic necessity. However, because the storm of international public opinion set off by the Kazakh-Israeli war is too strong, if it is too protective of Israel, the international reputation of the United States will be seriously affected.
Judging from the domestic situation in the United States, even within the Democratic Party, there are voices against Israel. In addition, the U.S. election is imminent, and it is necessary to win Muslim votes. Therefore, the Biden administration's support for Israel has to be reserved.
The subtle signs of a change in the United States' stance on the Kazakh-Israeli war are an unacceptable danger signal in Israel's view. Based on this, it is necessary to manage to "tie up" the United States in depth. And forcing Iran to go to war directly with Israel is a good way to "tie up" the United States.
The embassy was also bombed, and Iran vowed to retaliate, but it was Iran that had the final say on how to retaliate, or how to choose a target. Because the chosen target and the means of retaliation can determine whether the situation can be big or small.
To put it bluntly, Iran is unlikely to choose Israeli embassies and consulates abroad. This is because it has no real meaning to take action against Israeli embassies outside the Middle East and will lead to diplomatic disputes and international incidents.
The countries in the Middle East that have established diplomatic relations with Israel and have Israeli embassies and consulates are none other than Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and several other Sunni Arab countries. However, if these countries are to be used, it will be tantamount to pushing these countries to the side of Israel and the United States, and for Iran, it is obvious that the gains outweigh the losses.
If Iran needs to retaliate against the United States, there are also American military bases in the Middle East to choose from. However, Israel does not have military bases in the countries of the Middle East region. So, if Iran is to retaliate against Israel, there are only two objectives to choose from. One is within Israel. The second is the Israeli army camp in the Gaza Strip.
Objectively speaking, if Iran chooses to attack Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip, it will receive greater international support, while Israel's legitimacy in declaring war on Iran seems to be insufficient. After all, in the eyes of international public opinion, the Gaza Strip is not the territory of Israel. Therefore, the Israeli army withdrew from Gaza in a very timely manner, making it difficult for Iran to exert its strength.
After Israel's decision to withdraw from the Gaza Strip, Iran's retaliation was left with only one target, Israel. Moreover, the withdrawal of troops from Gaza has at least created an image of "showing weakness" on the surface. In this case, if Iran ends up "anticlimactic", it may also be "deflated". Based on this, Iran can only bite the bullet and attack targets in Israel.
As long as Iran attacks targets inside Israel, it is likely that Israel will not be able to ask for something. Because, in that case, Israel would be able to justifiably declare war on Iran. Therefore, the withdrawal of troops from Gaza may be another "bait" that Israel has planted to force Iran to go to war after attacking the Iranian embassy.
Fifth, Israel seeks war with Iran in order to solve the problem once and for all
Since the establishment of the State of Israel, five major wars have broken out in the Middle East. The first Middle East war lasted 11 months, the second for 5 months, the third for 6 days, the fourth for 19 days, and the fifth for 2 months. And inadvertently, this Kazakh-Israeli war was fought for six months.
The first Middle East war, although fought for 11 months, was intermittent. However, this Kazakh-Israeli war is being fought at high intensity. Moreover, in this war, none of Israel's direct opponents, Hamas, Allah, the Houthis, and Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, are state-level troops.
After more than half a year of fierce fighting with local armed forces, and facing unprecedented pressure at the international level, the Israelis have to ponder the question: When will it be?
Based on this, Israel seems to have made up its mind to "unjustly claim the debtor" and seek a "decisive battle" with Iran, the "boss" behind these local armed forces, in order to solve the problem once and for all. Therefore, the attack on the embassy and the withdrawal from Gaza are means of forcing Iran into the war.
Sixth, war in the Middle East is on the verge of breaking out, and true peace may come only after the war
By all indications, Iran's retaliation against Israel is inevitable, and the Israeli side is clearly ready.
According to a report by the Times of Israel on the 7th, after meeting and assessing with the head of the Israel Defense Forces Operations Bureau, Basuk, and the head of the Israel Military Intelligence Agency, Khaliwa, Israeli Defense Minister Gallant, claimed that Israel "has completed preparations to respond to any situation that may arise in Iran." ”
It is clear that a major war in the Middle East seems inevitable. As for peace, perhaps it will be done through a war in the true sense of the word. And judging from the strange degree of the current international situation, real world peace may also need a major war to achieve.