On April 1, Israeli F35 fighter jets bombed the Iranian embassy in Syria, killing seven people, including Zahedi, a senior commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force. On the same day, a spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry stressed that Israel's move was a serious violation of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, and Iran reserved the right to take countermeasures against the attack. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a statement on April 3, warning that Israel would be punished. There are all kinds of indications that Iran will not sit idly by and watch Israel's attacks and will take strong measures to counter them. Finally, after 96 hours of silence, Iran's retaliation came.
On April 6, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement promising Iranian nationals that Israel would be punished. There is information that the main forces of the Iranian army are massing and at least more than 300 missile drones have been activated. Iran also sent a written notice to the United States, warning the United States to stay away from Israel to avoid being co-ordinated. Israel's retaliation against Iran has long been predicted, on April 4, all Israeli combat forces suspended vacation, and on April 5, Israel temporarily closed 28 embassies abroad, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatening that Iran would bear the consequences if it retaliated against Israel. Under such a high-pressure atmosphere, the situation in the Middle East may change overnight.
From the perspective of military strength, Israel is not Iran's general, Iran's military strength ranks 17th in the world, the army has 5 major combat corps, with nearly 7,000 tanks, more than 4,000 artillery pieces of various types, as well as 1,085 mothballed rocket artillery and 705 active rocket artillery. Iran has also recently unveiled hundreds of missiles, and it will be difficult for Israel to withstand if it strikes high-value targets with precision, covers Israeli military bases with rockets, and then launches an attack from the Golan Heights via Syria. In the face of high-density aerial firepower, the Israeli army's "Iron Dome System" will most likely become an ornament; judging from the experience of previous wars in the Middle East, Israel has never been the main threat, and the biggest variable is the United States. With the modernization of Iran's military forces, especially the development of drone technology, the "asymmetric advantage" of the Israeli army in equipment is being greatly weakened, and if Israel leaves the intelligence and weapons support of the US military, then there is almost no suspense in this war.
In response to Iran's written notice warning the United States to stay away from Israel, the U.S. response was "asking Iran not to strike U.S. facilities," which exposed the widening differences between the United States and Israel, but did not mean that the United States would allow Iran to retaliate. The United States may intend to teach Netanyahu a lesson, but Israel is of great significance to the United States' Middle East strategy and petrodollars, and the consequences of the United States abandoning Israel are unbearable, especially as the US election is approaching.
It is undeniable that the Biden administration is facing a difficult choice, and the current US intends to withdraw from the Middle East situation and "return to the Asia-Pacific region", but Israel has taken the initiative to lead the war, expanding the situation in the Middle East, and trying to pull the United States into the water. This Iranian retaliation is a "touchstone" that can test both the upper limit of US military strength and the real US stance on the Middle East, and this is a "big gamble" for the United States; if it intervenes in the war, once it loses or is mired in war, it will intensify the collapse of hegemony, and the game between China and the United States and Russia will be more variable.