Recently, the international gold price has continued to refresh historical highs, which has aroused widespread attention in the market. In this wave of gold bull market, the investor bosses who laid it out made a lot of money. Bridgewater (China) Investment's three products are heavily invested in gold ETFs, with a total of 181.9 million fund shares, and the two products of Deng Xiaofeng, a private equity company with tens of billions of private equity assets, hold a total of 699 million shares of Zijin Mining, and the company's share price has risen by more than 40.53% since the beginning of this year.
For the "soaring" gold price and gold stocks, can the market continue, and will it usher in a major upward wave? A number of institutions have released the latest research and views. Tianfeng Securities believes that gold stands at the starting point of the medium and long-term bull market, and the elasticity of gold stocks is about 2.23 times that of the gold price. Guojin Securities believes that the Federal Reserve is expected to release an "easing signal" in Q2, which will become the starting point of the rising wave of gold stocks. In addition, a number of private equity believes that multiple positive resonances, the metal properties of resource products are activated, and the consumption of non-ferrous commodities is expected to drive the bullish of bulk commodities and open a wave of "periodic table" market.
As gold prices continue to refresh their all-time highs, the market's focus on gold stocks is also increasing. Gold stock ETFs are sought after by market funds, and the gold stock ETFs under China AMC Fund have risen for three consecutive days, with a premium rate of up to 30%, setting a historical record. Since the beginning of this year, the New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures contract for June delivery closed at $2349.1 / ounce, and London spot gold closed at $2329.57 / ounce, and the international gold price continued to hit a record high, with an increase of 13% during the year.
For the "soaring" gold price, Soochow Securities Research Report believes that gold usually falls 3 months before the interest rate cut. Therefore, as the interest rate cut cycle approaches, a gold correction will be a high probability. If we refer to the experience of gold standing above $1,000 per ounce in 2009, 20% may be a hurdle, which also means that there may be some pullback pressure near $2,400 per ounce.
However, institutions such as Tianfeng Securities and Guojin Securities are optimistic about the future trend of gold stocks. They believe that gold is currently at the beginning of a medium- to long-term bull market, with favorable macro factors such as interest rate cut expectations, high inflation, and a downward dollar index. In the small cycle, the US dollar and US Treasury yields are falling, and real interest rates may enter a downward cycle, coupled with the safe-haven demand generated by geopolitics. The current market value of gold stocks does not reflect the expectation of more gold price increases, and they may make up for the increase in the future. Based on the Fed's first interest rate cut in June, Guojin Securities expects that the Fed will release an "easing signal" in Q2, which will become the starting point for the main upward wave of gold stocks.
In this wave of gold bull market, Deng Xiaofeng, a private equity asset of tens of billions, made a lot of money. Gao Yi Xiaofeng No. 2 Zhixin Fund managed by Deng Xiaofeng holds 401,777,500 shares of Zijin Mining, Gao Yi Xiaofeng Hongyuan Fund also holds 297,050,000 shares of Zijin Mining at the end of the period, and Deng Xiaofeng's two products hold a total of 699 million shares of Zijin Mining. As of April 3, Zijin Mining's share price has risen by more than 40.53% this year.
Guangdong Xiaoyu Investment Li Shiyu said that a big logic of the recent strength of resource stocks is that the market expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates this year, and secondly, due to geopolitical friction and risk impact, the gold price has been rising all the way this year, and the international gold price has continued to hit record highs, which has also stimulated the price performance of other related resources. The performance of gold prices is currently desensitized to interest rate hikes, and many historical trends have proved that the continuous rise of gold prices to new highs is a leading signal of a bull market in commodities.
In short, although the current gold price is already at a relatively high level, the future trend of gold stocks still has some upside, driven by various factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks. Investors can pay attention to the investment opportunities of gold stocks, but they should also pay attention to risk control and adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner.