Zhitong Financial APP learned that Cui Dongshu issued a document saying that in accordance with the requirements of the "Parallel Management Measures for the Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Car Enterprises and New Energy Vehicle Credits", the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will publicize the annual report on the implementation of the average fuel consumption of passenger car enterprises and new energy vehicle credits submitted by enterprises in 2023. Judging from the average fuel consumption level of enterprises released, the fuel consumption points of domestic vehicles in 2023 have rebounded sharply, significantly surpassing the 2015-2017 period and reaching 36.48 million points, while the domestic new energy credits have increased from 3.3 million points in 2020 to 20.62 million points, and the comprehensive settlement has reached 56 million points.
As the new energy credits have risen to the positive credit range of 20 million points, and the fuel credit has also hit a new high of 36 million, the demand for new energy credit transactions in 2023 is very small, which is also a good result of the strong growth of new energy vehicles of car companies, and the establishment of the credit pool will provide good revenue expectations for the stable development of new energy.
The coordinated development of new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles is a reasonable choice. Fuel vehicles from the strong group to the weak group, rapid change, the protection and support of fuel vehicles also need to be considered, to increase the support of the old for fuel vehicles, to ensure that our exports and domestic and foreign dual cycle of fuel and new energy vehicle advantages continue to develop.
1. The overall situation of the operation of double points over the years
On September 27, 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five ministries and commissions issued the "Measures for the Parallel Management of Passenger Vehicle Enterprise Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credits", and in April 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other four ministries and commissions announced the 2023 China Passenger Car Enterprise Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credit Publicity.
In 2023, according to the statistics of the double points policy, the domestic production of passenger cars will reach 22.46 million units, of which the output of Chinese-made vehicles will be 21.75 million units, and the production of imported vehicles will be 720,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 4% for domestically produced vehicles, and the competitiveness of imported cars will decline, and the overall domestic supply of passenger cars will reach 22.46 million units, an increase of 3%.
In 2023, the domestic output of new energy passenger vehicles will be 8.51 million units, an increase of 41% year-on-year, with 8.39 million Chinese-made vehicles, an increase of 40%, and 110,000 imported new energy vehicles, an increase of 190%, reflecting the strong growth of China's new energy vehicles. In 2022, the fuel consumption points of domestic passenger cars will reach 36.48 million points, and imported cars will reach -590,000 points, and domestic cars will show a significant improvement, with an overall increase of 35.89 million points, an increase of 7 million points in 2023, an increase of 18.59 million points in 2022, and an increase of 17.68 million points in 2021, achieving a continuous surge. In 2023, the number of points for domestic new energy vehicles will reach 20.62 million, and the points for imported vehicles will reach 40,000, and the number of points for domestic vehicles will improve significantly, with an overall score of 20.67 million, an increase of 40%.
In recent years, the pressure on fuel consumption credits for passenger cars has continued to increase, and the pressure on credits will be reversed in 2021, and the double credits will be further abundant in 2022. Judging from the production of passenger cars in recent years, there will be a slight decline in 2020, but it will not change the growth trend, and the production will be gradually increasing in 2021 and will grow strongly in 2022.
2. The number of negative credits for new energy and fuel consumption has skyrocketed
In 2023, there will be little change for companies with negative average fuel consumption. The number of companies with negative points increased from 42 in 2015 to 94 in 2020, but dropped to 52 in 2023.
The fuel consumption of independent brands is growing, reflecting the extremely huge pressure on the fuel consumption of the entire joint venture.
The new energy credits of joint venture car companies are also constantly improving, and the compliance rate of joint venture new energy has increased significantly, exceeding 50%. The new energy compliance rate of independent and imported vehicles has also increased.
3. Comparison of double points of various car companies
From the perspective of the performance of new energy credits, the new energy credits of independent brand enterprises are basically positive points, and the new round of points of joint ventures are basically negative points in the early stage. Recently, some joint ventures have significantly improved their points, which is also a good result of the efforts of Volkswagen and others to develop new energy vehicles.
4. Fuel consumption measurement performance and compliance
From the perspective of fuel consumption, the overall fuel consumption of independent brand enterprises is between 30% and 50%, and the performance is relatively excellent.
The fuel consumption of foreign-funded enterprises is a large number of exceedances. This also shows that new energy vehicles have changed the way fuel consumption is calculated, making independent brands appear better.
The increase in average fuel consumption in 2023 is extremely good. In 2023, the completion value of the relative target value of the average fuel consumption of domestic enterprises will reach 71%, of which the overall autonomy is very strong.
In 2023, the fuel consumption of its own brands will reach the level of 40%, which is significantly better than the target. The joint venture brands are basically at the level of about 100%. The fuel consumption performance of the own brand is in great contrast with that of the joint venture brand.
5. The fuel consumption credit at the group level was completed very well
From the group level, there will be no large-scale negative scores in 2023, that is, all groups basically do not need to buy points. Last year, it was FAW, Dongfeng, BAIC, Geely Group and foreign-funded enterprises, and this year, the fuel consumption points of these enterprises are all positive points, and the performance is very good. This year, Chery's point pressure can also be easily purchased to resolve it.
6. Points for specific enterprise groups - central enterprise groups
The overall performance of the three major central enterprise enterprise groups of FAW, Changan and Dongfeng is relatively good, among which many joint venture car companies such as FAW Toyota are positive points in new energy and fuel consumption.
7. Specific enterprise group points - local state-owned enterprise groups
The overall performance of SAIC, GAC, and BAIC is better, among which SAIC, GAC, GAC Passenger Vehicle, and other independent major car companies are all positive points in new energy and fuel consumption.
Geely, Great Wall and BYD's new energy credits are abundant, while BYD's fuel consumption credits should be useless, and 14.58 million fuel consumption credits are also invalid credits. The Great Wall exports very well, so the domestic production of certificates is less.
Although from the perspective of the new forces as a whole, new energy credits and fuel consumption credits are extremely abundant, but the fuel consumption credits of the new forces are worthless, so it is also a pity. As for new energy credits, Tesla's new energy credits and fuel consumption credits are relatively abundant. Since this year's new energy credits are relatively abundant, it will be difficult to achieve the expected new energy vehicle credit sales last year to achieve good profits.
Overall, the performance of new energy vehicles of various enterprises in 2023 is very strong, and the over-speed development of new energy will inevitably bring about the positive points of fuel consumption credits and new energy credits that exceed expectations, which makes it difficult to increase the selling price of new energy credits, which is estimated at the level of 100 yuan, which is a very good thing.
Since the dynamic change of double integration is difficult to predict, the integration has fluctuated greatly in recent years. It is necessary to consider how to protect the balance of new energy credits of new energy enterprises, establish a system of credit pools, and bring a larger credit storage for the tightening of the double credit policy for new energy vehicles in the future, so as to achieve better credit transactions and stabilize the development expectations of new energy.