Zhitong Financial APP learned that on Friday, the three major indexes closed up, but all recorded losses this week. Earlier, job growth in March exceeded expectations, and futures market trading showed that investors are pricing in a lower probability of a Fed rate cut in June or July, and it is more likely that there will be fewer than three total rate cuts this year.
At the close, the Dow rose 307.06 points, or 0.80%, to 38,904.04, the Nasdaq rose 199.44 points, or 1.24%, to 16,248.52, and the S&P 500 rose 57.13 points, or 1.11%, to 5,204.34. The precious metals sector was among the top gainers, with Cordelon Mining (CDE. US) rose more than 12%, and Meta Platforms (META. US) rose more than 3%, and Nvidia (NVDA. US) rose 2.4%, while Tesla (TSLA. US) fell 3.6%.
All three major U.S. stock indexes recorded losses this week, with the Dow falling 2.27%, recording its worst weekly performance since 2024. The S&P 500 fell 0.95%. The Nasdaq fell 0.8%.
Major European stock indexes fell, with the German DAX 30 index falling more than 1%, the French CAC 40 index falling more than 1%, the Euro Stoxx 50 index falling more than 1%, and the British FTSE 100 index falling 0.81%.
The Nikkei 225 Index fell nearly 2%, Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index rose 0.48%, Vietnam's VN30 Index fell 0.78%, and Singapore's Straits Times Index fell 0.52%.
Bitcoin fell more than 1% to $67,730 per coin, while Ethereum rose 0.37% to $3,341.7 per coin.
COMEX gold futures for June delivery closed up 1.60% at $2,345.40 an ounce, hitting a new all-time closing high. COMEX silver futures for May delivery closed up 0.94% at $27.503 an ounce.
WTI crude oil futures for May delivery closed up $0.32, or 0.37%, at $86.91 a barrel, while Brent crude futures for June delivery closed up $0.52, or 0.57%, at $91.17 a barrel
London Metals was mixed, with London Aluminum up 0.29%, London Nickel up 0.62%, London Copper down 0.31%, London Zinc down 0.34%.
【Macro News】
U.S. job growth in March exceeded expectations, and the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts this year. U.S. job growth in March beat expectations by a large margin, while wages continued to rise, suggesting that the U.S. economy ended the first quarter on a solid footing and that the Fed's interest rate cuts this year could be delayed. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 303,000 last month, with average hourly earnings rising 0.3% month-on-month in March, up from 0.2% in February, according to the U.S. Labor Office. Year-on-year growth fell to 4.1% from 4.3%, but remained high. Wage growth of 3%-3.5% is seen as in line with the Fed's 2% inflation target. As a result, inflation remains above target. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8% in March from 3.9% in February. The unemployment rate has been below 4% for 26 consecutive months, the longest since the late 60s. Financial markets expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates in June, but recent statements by Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates.
U.S. Consumer Borrowing Increases Credit card balances rose the most in three months. U.S. consumer credit rose in February, with credit card balances rising by the most in three months. Total consumer credit rose by $14.1 billion in February, compared with a revised $17.7 billion increase in January, the Federal Reserve showed data released Friday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimated a median increase of $15 billion. Revolving credit, which includes credit cards, increased by $11.3 billion in February. Non-revolving credit, which includes car loans and student loans, increased by $2.9 billion. The figures are not adjusted for inflation.
Dallas Fed President: It's 'too early' to consider a rate cut The neutral rate may have moved up. Dallas Fed President Logan said it was too early to consider cutting interest rates because recent inflation data remains elevated and there are signs that borrowing costs may not be as dampening the economy as much as expected. Logan said she was increasingly concerned that progress in the fight against inflation could stall and that inflation could not fall to the 2% target in time. In a speech prepared for an event at Duke University on Friday, the Dallas Fed president said, "Given these risks, I think it's too early to consider a rate cut, and I need to see more uncertainty about the path of the economy resolved."
Summers: The NFP data suggests that the neutral rate is "much higher" than the Fed expects. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers said the surge in non-farm payrolls in March showed that the Fed's estimate of the level of the neutral rate was very inaccurate and that no interest rate cuts should be taken in June. "This jobs report is strong and suggests that the economy is accelerating again, and given the 'epic' easing of financial conditions and a number of other factors, I think the neutral rate is well above what the Fed thought it would be," Summers said. The neutral rate is a level of interest rate that theoretically neither stimulates nor inhibits economic growth. Fed officials' median estimate of the neutral rate last month was around 2.6%. Summers reiterated his view that the neutral rate is at 4% or higher.
【Stock News】
Musk has denied that Tesla (TSLA. US) abandoned its plan to launch low-cost vehicles. After Musk denied media reports that Tesla had canceled plans to launch a low-cost car, the company's stock price recovered some of its losses. The stock fell as much as 6.2% on Friday as foreign media said Tesla had abandoned plans to launch low-cost cars. At the close, the stock closed down 3.63%. Musk posted on social media platform X that "the media is lying", but did not disclose further details. A Tesla investor speculated that the company was adjusting its resource allocation to launch a robo-taxi, and Musk replied with an "eye emoji" on X. Musk first proposed a $25,000 model at an event in September 2020. He said at the time that Tesla's series of innovations had given him confidence that the company could build an electric car at this price point in about three years. Foreign media reported on Friday that Musk asked his subordinates to go all out to develop self-driving taxis in late February. The CEO has repeatedly claimed that Tesla is close to bringing fully autonomous vehicles to market. During Tesla's recent earnings call, Musk said the company had made significant progress in developing low-cost vehicles. "I'm always optimistic about the timing," he said, but our current data shows that we won't be able to start production until near the end of 2025."
Online consultation company Teladoc (TDOC. US) CEO resignation, the company's market value has shrunk by 95% in three years. Teladoc Health, an online consultation company, announced on Friday the sudden departure of CEO Jason Gorevic, who has immediately resigned as the company's CEO. The company's board of directors has provisionally appointed Chief Financial Officer Mala Murthy as Gorevic's successor and has hired a headhunter to select a long-term stable successor. Teladoc shares are largely flat, but their shares are down about 34% year-to-date. Compared to the all-time high of $294.54 set in February 2021, the stock is now down about 95%.
Ford (F.US) has postponed the launch of three-row electric vehicles until 2027. Ford Motor Company said on April 4 that it would delay the launch of a new three-row electric vehicle pending further development of the electric vehicle consumer market. Ford now expects to launch the new electric vehicle in 2027, compared to a previously planned launch date of 2025. Ford said it will still produce electric vehicles at its Oakville plant in Canada, where it is planning to renovate the plant from gasoline to electric vehicles. Ford Motor said it plans to work with union Unifor to mitigate the impact of the delay in the launch of new vehicles on employees at the Oakville plant. Ford said it is still investing in other plants to increase EV production. The company said it is also ramping up production of hybrid vehicles.
【Big Bank Rating】
UBS: Tesla (TSLA. US) lowered its price target to $160 from $165