China's diplomacy pursues the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence of non-interference in each other's internal affairs, and China has little interest in the life-and-death civil war in Burma. As long as the manure in this dung pit does not overflow and the interests of the Chinese are not affected, China will maintain the attitude of eating melons and watching the show.
However, as the civil war in Myanmar continues and the impact of the civil war in Myanmar is gradually spreading, in order to prevent the civil strife in Myanmar from affecting Yunnan, China, a certain unit of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) held a joint live-fire exercise on our side of the China-Myanmar border from 8:00 on April 2 to 18:00 on April 3, 2024. Now that this live-fire exercise has begun, why is this exercise being held?
In fact, the conflict of interests of the countries of East Asia, Southeast Asia, and South Asia is no less than that of the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The industries of Japan and South Korea are highly overlapping, and there is almost a total confrontation. Territorial disputes are common among Southeast Asian countries, and even the Philippines can have territorial disputes with Vietnam! It's just that China is on the side, and these countries don't dare to jump.
It is not that the countries of South and Southeast Asia do not have the idea of using force to settle their territorial disputes, but the presence of China makes these countries dare not think of settling their territorial disputes by force. It is precisely because of China's presence that East Asia, Southeast Asia, and South Asia will be able to maintain overall peace at a time when the world situation is becoming more and more chaotic. If China suddenly becomes a sea, eastern Asia will soon become an even more chaotic region than Africa.
Philippines Mindanao has a clear propensity for independence
The Burmese government, which puts Burmese first, has little influence in many states. And because fraud is a source of wealth for many Myanmar warlords, these warlords have no idea of cutting off their own arms. As a result, the fraudsters repatriated from Myanmar are mainly from Lao Cai, which was captured by the Allied forces, and there are very few fraudsters repatriated from other states. The notorious Myawaddy and Dachili have not been affected much in this wave of anti-fraud turmoil.
However, China's crackdown on wire fraud is serious, and after discovering that Myanmar has been slacking off recently, the PLA decided to give the Myanmar government a boost of intensity, and let the Myanmar police, who had just escorted a wave of wire fraudsters to China (Myanmar handed over 352 Chinese criminal suspects to China on March 31), to see what the consequences would be if the PLA was serious. This will increase Myanmar's anti-fraud efforts.
Deterring the Burmese warlords who are trying to pull China into the water, the warlords do not care about life or death in China, but they cannot affect China's territory (it is not uncommon for Burmese shells to fall into China's territory, the question is who to retaliate against? There is no creditor to be found), so as to urge both sides to exercise restraint. All parties in Myanmar should pay attention.
Reki crossing
The Burmese side of the military exercise area that controls the Myanmar border is Kachin State. Kachin State is a highly pro-American regional armed force seeking independence from Myanmar and seeking to infiltrate parts of Yunnan. In the Burmese civil war, the U.S.-backed Kachin State offensive was still gaining momentum, capturing the Leki border crossing on March 28. This led to the temporary closure of the Leki crossing.
This kind of warlord organization that controls the port is always quite a headache, and if the Burmese government army fights too hard, the Kachin State will break the jar and break into the Leki crossing? China is afraid that the dung pit will overflow, and once the remnants of the Kachin State army flow into China, it will be a big trouble.
Therefore, the Burmese government army is a little timid, for fear of affecting China. At this stage, the PLA is holding exercises at the junction of Yunnan and Kachin State, which is not only to knock the mountain and shock the tiger, prevent the Burmese warlords from wandering into China, and protect the peace of the side. It will also help keep the overall situation in Myanmar under control and ensure the smooth flow of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, rather than having to renegotiate.
If necessary, the live-fire military exercise cannot be turned into a military operation, and I hope that Myanmar will pay attention to it. It would be undignified to let China go.